格林大华期货早盘提示-20260316

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Corn: In the short - to - medium term, short - term supply - demand mismatch drives the spot price to be strong. As the temperature rises and policy grain sources are continuously released, the short - term supply - demand tightness may be alleviated, and the spot price may decline. In the long term, the pricing logic of substitution and planting cost is maintained, and policy guidance should be focused on [1]. - Pigs: In the short term, the pattern of strong supply and weak demand in March continues, and pig prices may remain low. In the medium term, the supply pressure will ease from April to June. In the long term, the supply pressure before August still exists, and the expected high point of the far - month contract is lowered [1][3]. - Eggs: In the short - to - medium term, inventory stops falling and rebounds, and egg prices are stable. However, the supply pressure is postponed, and the pattern of strong supply and weak demand continues to put pressure on egg prices. In the long term, the continuous expansion of egg - laying hen farming scale may extend the price bottom cycle and limit the upward space [3]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Corn - Market Review: On the night of last Friday, corn futures fluctuated. As of the night - session close, the main 2605 contract fell 0.17% to 2385 yuan/ton [1]. - Important Information: - Due to precipitation in North China over the weekend, the number of vehicles arriving at deep - processing enterprises decreased. On the 15th, 55 vehicles arrived at the factory gate, 47 less than the previous day. - In the 11th week, the grain - selling progress in Northeast China was 81% (76% in the previous week, 79% in the same period last year); in North China, it was 78% (73% in the previous week, 78% in the same period last year). - As of March 13th, the grain - selling progress in Northeast China was 79% (79% in the same period last year); in North China, it was 68% (78% in the same period last year). - As of March 13th, the total corn inventory in the four northern ports was about 1.95 million tons; the corn inventory in Guangdong Port was 600,000 tons, and the daily domestic corn shipment was 3.1 tons. - As of the end of the 11th week of 2026, the grain inventory in Guangzhou Port was 1.588 million tons, a 9.98% month - on - month decrease and a 46.73% year - on - year decrease. - As of March 13th, the wheat - corn price difference in Shandong was 165 yuan/ton, 5 yuan/ton wider than the previous day. - The National Grain and Commodity Reserves Trading Center will conduct a competitive sale of 500,000 tons of minimum - purchase - price wheat on March 18th [1]. - Market Logic: In the short - to - medium term, short - term supply - demand mismatch drives the spot price to be strong. As the temperature rises and policy grain sources are continuously released, the short - term supply - demand tightness may be alleviated, and the spot price may decline. In the long term, the pricing logic of substitution and planting cost is maintained, and policy guidance should be focused on [1]. - Trading Strategy: Maintain a wide - range trading idea in the medium term, and the short - term downward pressure increases. For the 2605 contract, the resistance is at 2400, the first support is at 2350 - 2370, and the second support is at 2300 - 2330 [1]. Pigs - Market Review: Last Friday, the pig futures showed a pattern of near - term weakness and far - term strength. The main 2605 contract fell 0.27% to 11,150 yuan/ton [1]. - Important Information: - Over the weekend, pig prices were strong in the north and stable in the south. On the 15th, the national average pig price was 10.11 yuan/kg, up 0.03 yuan/kg from the 13th. - At the end of December, the inventory of breeding sows was 39.61 million, a 2.9% year - on - year decrease, 101.6% of the normal inventory. - From January to September 2025, the number of new - born piglets increased month - on - month (only decreased in July), corresponding to an increasing trend in the number of pig slaughter until March this year. From October to December 2025, the number of new - born piglets decreased for three consecutive months, corresponding to a relief of supply pressure from April this year. In January 2026, the number of new - born piglets increased 1% month - on - month. - As of March 12th, the average slaughter weight of pigs was 125.88 kg, an increase of 0.02 kg from the previous week. - On March 13th, the price difference between fat and standard pigs was 0.32 yuan/jin, the same as the previous day. - As of March 13th, the number of pig futures warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 1,133 [1][3]. - Market Logic: In the short term, the pattern of strong supply and weak demand in March continues, and pig prices may remain low. In the medium term, the supply pressure will ease from April to June. In the long term, the supply pressure before August still exists, and the expected high point of the far - month contract is lowered [1][3]. - Trading Strategy: Maintain a bottom - range trading idea. For the 2605 contract, the support is at 11,000, and if it falls below 11,000, the support moves down to 10,500, with resistance at 11,250 - 11,300. For the 2607 contract, the support is at 12,000, and the resistance is at 12,350 - 12,400. For the 2609 contract, the support is at 13,000, and the resistance is at 13,350 [3]. Eggs - Market Review: Last Friday, egg futures contracts showed mixed trends. The main 2605 contract fell 0.55% to 3,433 yuan/500KG [3]. - Important Information: - Over the weekend, egg prices mainly rose. On the 15th, the price of Hebei Guantao powder eggs was 2.98 yuan/jin, up 0.09 yuan/jin from the 13th. - On the 13th, the average inventory in the national production link was 1.07 days, the same as the previous day; the inventory in the circulation link was 1.17 days, a decrease of 0.02 days from the previous day. - On the 13th, the average price of old hens was 5.26 yuan/jin, a decrease of 0.02 yuan/jin from the previous day. As of March 12th, the weekly culling age of old hens was 505 days, an increase of 3 days from the previous week. - In February, the inventory of laying hens in the country was about 1.35 billion, a 0.6% month - on - month increase and a 3.37% year - on - year increase. The theoretical estimated inventory of laying hens in March is 1.342 billion [3]. - Market Logic: In the short - to - medium term, inventory stops falling and rebounds, and egg prices are stable. However, the supply pressure is postponed, and the pattern of strong supply and weak demand continues to put pressure on egg prices. In the long term, the continuous expansion of egg - laying hen farming scale may extend the price bottom cycle and limit the upward space [3]. - Trading Strategy: Pay attention to the short - selling opportunities of near - month contracts to squeeze the premium. For the 2604 contract, the resistance is at 3,250 - 3,300, the first support is at 3,200, and the second support is at 3,150. For the 2605 contract, the resistance is at 3,450 - 3,500, the first support is at 3,400, and the second support is at 3,300 - 3,340. Pay attention to the inventory level and the culling rhythm of farmers [3].