电解铝：中东铝产能暂停减产，但现货仍紧张

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report Aluminum - The geopolitical conflict between the US - Israel and Iran continues, affecting the aluminum market through high oil prices and supply - chain disruptions [4]. - The Qatalum aluminum smelter in Qatar has stopped further production cuts and maintained its capacity at about 60%. However, there is uncertainty about future production resumption [4]. - Aluminum inventories decreased in mid - March, and the internal - external price difference widened, increasing the profit of aluminum product exports [4]. - The aluminum market is expected to run in a strong and volatile manner, with a trading strategy of being bullish on dips [4]. Alumina - Geopolitical conflicts have led to rising shipping and domestic freight costs, affecting the alumina market [84]. - The price of bauxite has increased, and there are concerns about export quotas in Guinea [84]. - Alumina production capacity is in a state of slight over - supply in the short term, with prices expected to rise in a narrow range [84]. - The trading strategy is to be bullish on the single - side, and wait and see for arbitrage and options [84]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Aluminum Macro - The geopolitical conflict between the US - Israel and Iran since February 28, 2026, continues. Iran may take strategic measures such as blocking the Strait of Hormuz, and oil prices remain high. The Fed's interest - rate meeting next week is worth attention [4]. Industrial Supply - The Qatalum aluminum smelter in Qatar has stopped further production cuts due to low natural gas supply and will maintain its capacity at about 60% (648,000 tons/year). The timing of production resumption is uncertain [4]. - An Indonesian Chinese - funded aluminum smelter's project may be delayed by 1 - 2 months due to slow environmental assessment [4]. - Mozal in Mozambique is expected to cut production in mid - March, and a domestic electrolytic aluminum plant in Northeast China is expected to resume production as scheduled this month [4]. Industrial Demand and Inventory - In mid - March, the total social inventory of aluminum ingots and bars decreased by 49,900 tons week - on - week, and apparent demand increased. The internal - external price difference widened, increasing the profit of aluminum product exports [4]. - Overseas traders cancelled or designated the delivery of nearly 100,000 tons of aluminum in the Port of Klang, and Rio Tinto raised the aluminum premium for Japanese customers by 79% [4]. Trading Logic and Strategy - Uncertainty in the Middle East geopolitical situation, suspension of production cuts in Qatari aluminum plants, and high overseas spot premiums. Pay attention to whether the concern of LME aluminum warrant cancellations will widen the monthly spread [4]. - The trading strategy is to be bullish on dips, and wait and see for derivatives and arbitrage [3][4]. Downstream Demand - Photovoltaic: In January 2026, photovoltaic module production decreased by 3.5GW month - on - month. The overall production in 2025 decreased slightly year - on - year. The demand in the first quarter of 2026 may be weak, and the second - quarter demand is uncertain [61]. - Automobile: In February 2026, automobile production and sales declined year - on - year and month - on - month. However, exports maintained high growth, especially for new - energy vehicles [65]. - Real Estate: The real estate market is still in the de - stocking process, with weak completion data, but the decline is expected to be relatively moderate [68]. - Power Investment and Cables: The investment in the power grid during the 15th Five - Year Plan is expected to exceed 5 trillion yuan. In February, the aluminum rod production decreased year - on - year [72]. - Home Appliances: In March 2026, the total production plan of air conditioners, refrigerators, and washing machines decreased by 4.0% year - on - year [75]. - Exports: In February 2026, China exported 430,000 tons of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products. The export profit increased, and the subsequent export volume is expected to rise [78]. Supply - Demand Balance - The global electrolytic aluminum supply - demand balance shows a deficit in some years. China's production and demand are also in a complex balance, with net imports and strategic reserves affecting the market [80]. Alumina Macro - The Middle East geopolitical conflict has led to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, increasing shipping and domestic freight costs [84]. Raw Material - The price of Guinea bauxite has risen, with the spot price of 45/3 bauxite at $62 - 64 per dry ton. There are concerns about export quotas in Guinea [84]. Supply - The alumina industry's production enthusiasm has increased due to high prices and expected cost reduction. However, the operating capacity is between 9.35 - 9.4 million tons due to maintenance and production cuts, in a state of slight over - supply [84]. - On March 14, South32 reported a fatal accident at the Worsley alumina plant in Australia, and non - critical operations have been suspended [84]. Trading Logic and Strategy - Geopolitical conflicts and rising shipping costs have increased market sentiment, but the actual impact on supply and demand is limited. The price is expected to rise in a narrow range [84]. - The trading strategy is to be bullish on the single - side, and wait and see for arbitrage and options [84]. Cost and Profit - In February 2026, the national weighted average full cost of alumina was 2,604 yuan/ton, with an average profit of 22 yuan/ton. Shandong and Guangxi regions had better profitability [102]. Inventory - As of March 12, the national alumina inventory was 5.345 million tons, an increase of 36,000 tons from the previous week. Electrolytic aluminum plants' inventory decreased slightly, while alumina enterprises' inventory increased [105]. New Investment - There are many new alumina investment projects overseas and in China, mainly in India, Indonesia, and some domestic regions such as Shandong, Guangxi, etc. [116][118] Bauxite Cost - The FOB cash cost of Guinea bauxite is affected by multiple factors, and different CIF prices have different impacts on mine production. The cost structure is becoming more complex [122]. Supply - Demand Balance - The global metallurgical - grade alumina supply - demand balance shows different situations in different years. China's production and demand are also in a dynamic balance, with net imports affecting the market [134]