油脂周报：生柴预期向好，油脂短期易涨难跌-20260316

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term, due to the significant increase in crude oil prices, the blending profits of US soybean oil and palm oil for biodiesel have improved significantly, leading to an expected increase in the demand for biodiesel from oils and fats. The increase in freight costs caused by geopolitical factors has also raised the cost of oils and fats, making the overall price of oils and fats likely to rise and difficult to fall [5][25]. - For palm oil, Malaysian palm oil continued to reduce production and inventory in February. With a high base, the inventory may remain at a relatively high level. There is a phased inventory accumulation pressure for domestic palm oil after the delayed arrival of shipments. However, India's large imports of palm oil and the increase in biodiesel blending profits are beneficial to palm oil demand [5][25]. - Domestic soybean oil has been experiencing a slight reduction in inventory, but the supply is sufficient. Supported by the positive expectation of US biodiesel policy and the overall rise of oils and fats driven by geopolitical factors, soybean oil follows the upward trend [5][25]. - In the short term, before a large amount of Canadian rapeseed arrives, rapeseed oil maintains a slightly low - level inventory. The ongoing Middle - East geopolitical war and the interruption of Dubai rapeseed oil transportation have promoted the price of rapeseed oil, which may continue to fluctuate upwards [5][25]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs International Market - Malaysian Palm Oil - MPOB's February palm oil supply - demand data shows that the ending inventory of Malaysian palm oil decreased to 2.7 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.9%. Production decreased by 18.6% to 1.28 million tons, and exports decreased by 22% to 1.13 million tons. The report's impact was neutral [8]. - High - frequency data shows that the production of Malaysian palm oil from March 1 - 10 increased by 1.55% month - on - month compared to the same period last month, and exports in the first 15 days of March increased by 44% month - on - month. As the producing areas enter the traditional production - increasing season, the inventory reduction speed is slow, and the high inventory is expected to continue for some time [8]. - Due to the Middle - East geopolitical conflict, crude oil prices have risen significantly. Recently, Indonesia's B50 biodiesel has been mentioned again. Indonesia indicates that there are still 10,000 kilometers left for the B50 road test, and the test is expected to be completed no earlier than June or July this year. In addition, the Indonesian president requires that domestic demand be prioritized before palm oil exports. Based on this, palm oil is expected to remain prone to rising and difficult to fall in the short term [8]. International Market - Indian Edible Oil - SEA data shows that India's edible oil imports in February decreased by 1.4% month - on - month to 1.29 million tons but were still at a high level in the same period of history. Palm oil imports increased by 10% month - on - month to 850,000 tons, reaching a six - month high; soybean oil imports increased by 8.7% month - on - month to 300,000 tons; sunflower oil imports decreased by 45% month - on - month to 150,000 tons, at a relatively low level in the same period of history [14]. - In terms of inventory, India's edible oil port inventory decreased slightly to 820,000 tons in February, higher than the five - year average, while the channel inventory increased significantly to 1.05 million tons but was still at a relatively low level in the same period. Palm oil inventory increased to 520,000 tons, while soybean and sunflower oil inventories decreased [14]. - Currently, India has occasional import profits for soybean oil and sunflower oil, but the international price difference between soybean - palm and sunflower - palm oils is at a relatively neutral level in the same period of history. The absolute price of palm oil is relatively lower and more cost - effective. Recently, there are rumors in the market that India has washed some far - month soybean oil shipments. It is expected that India will appropriately increase palm oil imports [14]. Domestic Palm Oil - As of March 6, 2026 (week 10), the commercial inventory of palm oil in key national regions was 812,100 tons, an increase of 25,400 tons compared to last week. Palm oil inventory is at a relatively high level in the same period of history. The origin's quotation remained stable, the盘面 import profit was inverted by about 160, the basis was stable and slightly weak, and the port inventory pressure was high [17]. - On the demand side, after the Spring Festival, terminal consumption was weak, downstream acceptance of high prices was low, and purchases were mainly for rigid demand. The overall market transaction was light. In the short term, affected by the significant increase in crude oil prices, the demand for oils and fats in biodiesel applications is expected to increase significantly. At the same time, the increase in freight costs due to geopolitical factors has also raised the cost of oils and fats, further supporting the price increase of oils and fats. If the Middle - East war weakens in the future, oils and fats may fluctuate at a high level. Continued attention should be paid to Middle - East geopolitical changes [17]. Domestic Soybean Oil - As of March 6, 2026, the commercial inventory of soybean oil in key national regions was 905,900 tons, a decrease of 7,400 tons compared to last week, a decrease of 0.81%. Currently, soybean oil inventory is still at a relatively high level in the same period of history, and the basis of soybean oil has decreased steadily [20]. - After the Spring Festival, the purchasing and selling atmosphere has not fully recovered. The supply expectations for February and March are high, causing short - term pressure on the basis. This week, the total trading volume of bulk soybean oil in key domestic oil mills was 210,000 tons, with an average daily trading volume of 40,000 tons. The market trading volume has increased. It is understood that there was a small amount of domestic soybean oil exports this week. Overall, the soybean oil inventory is expected to remain at a relatively high level. Fundamentally, the domestic soybean oil supply is sufficient. However, supported by the positive expectation of US biodiesel policy and the overall rise of oils and fats driven by geopolitical factors, soybean oil follows the overall upward trend of oils and fats [20]. Domestic Rapeseed Oil - As of March 6, the rapeseed inventory of major coastal oil mills was 121,000 tons, a decrease of 30,000 tons compared to last week. As of March 6, 2026, the coastal rapeseed oil inventory was 263,000 tons, a decrease of 8,000 tons, at a relatively neutral and slightly low level in the same period of history. The FOB quotation of European rapeseed oil remained stable at around $1080, and the import profit of European rapeseed oil was inverted and expanded to around - 1500. The Ministry of Commerce announced a 5.9% anti - dumping duty on rapeseed imported from Canada. Before this, China had purchased about a dozen ships of Canadian rapeseed. After the Spring Festival, the operation of oil mills increased, and the supply of rapeseed oil may increase. However, downstream consumption is in the seasonal off - season, and the overall market demand is weak. It is expected that the basis of rapeseed oil will show a weakening trend [23]. - In addition, the Middle - East geopolitical war has affected rapeseed oil transportation. The conventional transportation route of Dubai rapeseed oil needs to pass through the Strait of Hormuz to reach China. In 2025, the proportion of rapeseed oil imported from the UAE by China decreased to 12%. Russian, Belarusian, and Dubai rapeseed oils together account for nearly 90% of China's total rapeseed oil imports. Overall, in the short term, before a large amount of Canadian rapeseed arrives, rapeseed oil maintains a slightly low - level inventory. The ongoing Middle - East geopolitical war and the interruption of Dubai rapeseed oil transportation have promoted the price of rapeseed oil, which may continue to fluctuate upwards. However, if the Middle - East war weakens in the future and a large amount of Canadian rapeseed arrives in April, the supply pressure of far - month rapeseed oil will increase, and the upward pressure on rapeseed oil prices will also become prominent [23]. Strategy Recommendations - Unilateral strategy: In the short term, due to continuous geopolitical disturbances, oils and fats are likely to rise and difficult to fall [27]. - Arbitrage strategy: Wait and see [27]. - Option strategy: Wait and see [27].