国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-绿色金融与新能源-20260316

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views - Nickel: The resonance of smelting inventory accumulation and macro - sentiment, with the shortage of the ore end supporting the downside [2][4] - Stainless Steel: Fundamental and macro factors exert pressure, while the actual cost provides support [2][4] - Lithium Carbonate: Attention should be paid to market sentiment changes [2][12] - Industrial Silicon: It is in a range - bound pattern [2][17] - Polysilicon: Demand continues to weaken [2][18] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel and Stainless Steel - Fundamental Data: The closing price of the Shanghai Nickel main contract was 136,930, down 1,170 from T - 1; the closing price of the stainless - steel main contract was 14,190, down 95 from T - 1. Other data such as trading volume, prices of related products in the industrial chain also showed different changes [4] - Macro and Industry News: The Indonesian Nickel Miners Association (APNI) said the government will revise the benchmark price formula for nickel ore products in early 2026, treating cobalt as an independent commodity. The Solway Investment Group plans to restart its nickel mine in Guatemala. The approved nickel ore production quota in Indonesia is between 260 million and 270 million tons. There were also incidents like a landslide in an Indonesian industrial park and the suspension of operations due to fuel supply limitations in Cuba [4][5][8] - Trend Intensity: The trend intensity of nickel and stainless steel is 0 [11] Lithium Carbonate - Fundamental Data: The closing price of the 2605 contract was 152,080, down 4,900 from T - 1. Other data including trading volume, positions, and prices of related lithium - salt products in the industrial chain had corresponding changes [14] - Macro and Industry News: The "Aksu Shaya County Fuman Block Photovoltaic Green Electricity Direct - connection Project" of Tarim Oilfield was approved. Academician Ouyang Minggao said that 2026 will start a new high - quality development cycle for new - energy vehicles [15][16] - Trend Intensity: The trend intensity of lithium carbonate is 0 [16] Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Fundamental Data: The closing price of Si2605 was 8,675, up 30 from T - 1; the closing price of PS2605 was 42,040, down 720 from T - 1. There were also changes in trading volume, positions, basis, prices, profits, and inventory data [18] - Macro and Industry News: The State Power Investment Corporation held a mobilization meeting for energy consumption - side industries such as green electricity direct - connection and zero - carbon parks [18] - Trend Intensity: The trend intensity of industrial silicon and polysilicon is - 1 [20]