通胀预期强化，锌价承压震荡

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not available in the provided content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, the center of the Shanghai zinc futures price fluctuated downward. The U.S. core inflation slowed down, but the risk of the U.S.-Iran war escalating led to a surge in crude oil prices, strengthening inflation expectations, suppressing interest rate cuts, and causing the U.S. dollar to strengthen, which dragged down the prices of risk assets. In China, new credit and social financing were better than expected, but the consumption was still weak, and the monetary policy is expected to remain loose [3][9]. - The negative impact of the blocked navigation in the Strait of Hormuz has emerged. After the Spring Festival, China's zinc ore imports from Iran have significantly decreased. Although Iran's annual zinc ore production and its share in China's import structure are limited, the increase in global overseas zinc ore this year is far lower than last year, amplifying the marginal impact of the supply disruption of Iranian zinc ore. The trade interruption and concerns about low inventory in the off - season have supported the high - level operation of natural gas prices, increasing the cost of European zinc smelters and weakening the production resilience [3][9]. - The recovery of downstream consumption in China after the Spring Festival was less than expected. Environmental protection in the north affected the shipment, and the finished product inventory of galvanizing enterprises was overstocked. The order improvement of die - casting zinc alloy and zinc oxide enterprises was limited, suppressing the willingness to replenish inventory, and enterprises mainly consumed existing inventory. At the same time, the resumption of production of smelters after the Spring Festival was stable, and with the gradual recovery of logistics, the inventory in factories was transferred to social inventory, and the inventory has climbed to 268,800 tons, with no obvious signal of inventory reduction [3][9]. - Overall, the tough stance of Iran and the U.S. dispatch of a Marine expeditionary force have re - activated the inflation trading logic. The delay of interest rate cut expectations supports the strength of the U.S. dollar, putting pressure on zinc prices. The long - short pattern of the fundamentals is relatively balanced. The weak consumption recovery and high inventory continue to put pressure, while the supply disruption of zinc ore and the production risk of European smelters provide potential support. However, before there is a substantial reduction in production at the smelting end, the support logic is still weak. With the continuous strengthening of market inflation expectations, the adjustment pressure on zinc prices has increased, and it is expected to remain under pressure and fluctuate in the short term [3][10] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Trading Data - The price of SHFE zinc decreased from 24,260 yuan/ton on March 6th to 24,140 yuan/ton on March 13th, a decrease of 120 yuan/ton. The price of LME zinc decreased from 3323 dollars/ton to 3293.5 dollars/ton, a decrease of 29.5 dollars/ton. The Shanghai - London ratio increased from 7.30 to 7.33, an increase of 0.03. The inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased from 134,921 tons to 147,348 tons, an increase of 12,427 tons. The LME inventory increased from 94,975 tons to 97,900 tons, an increase of 2,925 tons. The social inventory increased from 256,300 tons to 268,800 tons, an increase of 12,500 tons. The spot premium decreased from - 90 yuan/ton to - 120 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30 yuan/ton [4] 2. Market Review - Last week, the price of the Shanghai zinc main contract ZN2604 fluctuated in a narrow range, with the center of gravity moving slightly downward, closing at 24,140 yuan/ton, a weekly decline of 0.49%. It fluctuated weakly at night on Friday. The LME zinc fluctuated horizontally and converged, closing at 3293.5 dollars/ton, a weekly decline of 0.89% [5]. - In the spot market, as of March 13th, the mainstream transaction price of Shanghai 0 zinc was concentrated between 24,065 - 24,190 yuan/ton, with a discount of 100 - 90 yuan/ton to the 2604 contract. The mainstream brands of 0 zinc in the Ningbo market were traded at about 24,075 - 24,170 yuan/ton, with a discount of 100 yuan/ton to the 2604 contract and a premium of 20 yuan/ton to the Shanghai spot. The mainstream transaction price of 0 zinc in Guangdong was between 23,995 - 24,140 yuan/ton, with a discount of 100 - 60 yuan/ton to the 2604 contract and a premium of 40 yuan/ton to the Shanghai spot. The price difference between Shanghai and Guangdong widened. The mainstream transaction price of 0 zinc ingots in the Tianjin market was between 24,070 - 24,220 yuan/ton, with a discount of 20 - 100 yuan/ton to the 2604 contract, and Tianjin market reported a premium of 10 yuan/ton compared with the Shanghai market. Overall, the market supply was abundant, downstream purchases were few, the spot transaction did not improve, and the spot quotation remained at a discount [5]. - As of March 13th, the LME zinc ingot inventory was 97,900 tons, a weekly increase of 2,925 tons. The inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 147,348 tons, an increase of 12,427 tons. As of March 12th, the social inventory was 268,800 tons, an increase of 6,600 tons compared with Monday and an increase of 12,500 tons compared with last Thursday [6]. 3. Industry News - On March 13, 2026, the processing fee for domestic zinc concentrates was 1,550 yuan/metal ton, remaining flat compared with the previous period; the processing fee for imported ore was 11.25 dollars/dry ton, a decrease of 4.13 dollars/dry ton compared with the previous period [11]. - The beneficiation plant of Zhugongtang Lead - Zinc Mine of Hezhang Dingshengxin Mining Development Co., Ltd. is planned to enter trial production in July this year, marking a key step towards large - scale and standardized production of this super - large lead - zinc mine project [11]. - Nexa's zinc concentrate production in the fourth quarter of 2025 totaled 91,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 9% and a year - on - year increase of 24%. The total zinc concentrate production in 2025 was 315,600 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3% [11]. - Volcan's zinc concentrate metal production in the fourth quarter of 2025 totaled 59,500 tons, and the total zinc concentrate production in 2025 was 235,500 tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.3% [11]. - Kaz Mineral's zinc concentrate metal volume in the fourth quarter of 2025 was 19,500 tons, and the total zinc concentrate metal volume in 2025 was 53,800 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 26% [12]. - Buenaventura's zinc production in the fourth quarter of 2025 was 8,400 tons, a year - on - year increase of 43%. The total zinc concentrate production in 2025 was 29,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 2% [12] 4. Relevant Charts - The report provides multiple charts, including the price trend charts of Shanghai zinc and LME zinc, the internal and external price ratio, spot premium and discount, LME premium and discount, inventory data of each market, zinc ore processing fees, domestic refined zinc production, smelter profits, refined zinc net imports, and downstream enterprise start - up rates [14][15][16]