苹果周报：客商补货积极，苹果以质论价-20260316

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, the main contract of apple futures showed a trend of rising first and then falling, with a significant overall decline. As of March 13, 2026, the AP2605 contract closed at 9,998 yuan/ton, down 318 yuan/ton for the week, a decrease of 3.08%. The market logic is gradually shifting from delivery logic to the spot fundamentals [5][11]. - The apple market maintained a differentiated pattern of strong in the west and stable in the east last week. Good - quality goods were in better trading than medium - and low - grade ones. The short - term pattern of low inventory and tight supply of high - quality goods is difficult to change, which will push up the delivery cost and support the futures price. With the approaching of Tomb - Sweeping Festival, downstream demand is expected to be boosted, and the inventory clearance will be accelerated. Citrus suppression will weaken, and it is expected that the short - term apple futures price will maintain a volatile and strong operation [7][58]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Review (1) Futures Price - Last week, the main contract of apple futures AP2605 showed a trend of rising first and then falling, with a significant overall decline. As of March 13, 2026, the apple 2605 contract closed at 9,998 yuan/ton, down 318 yuan/ton for the week, a decrease of 3.08% [5][11]. (2) Spot Price - Shandong: The apple price in Shandong remained stable last week. The number of inquiring and purchasing merchants in cold storages was small, and the overall sales speed was slow. The export processing demand increased slightly. The prices in Penglai and Qixia areas were reported in detail [16]. - Shaanxi: The trading of high - quality goods in Shaanxi improved last week. Merchants replenished their stocks as needed, especially for high - quality goods. The price of high - quality goods rose slightly, while the general and low - grade goods had slow transactions [21]. 2. Production Area Situation - Shandong: The trading speed of inventory apples in Qixia and Yiyuan was slow. The prices were affected by quality, with some being chaotic and some showing a weak - stable trend [23]. - Shaanxi: In Luochuan, the trading of high - quality inventory Fuji was good, with stable and firm prices, while the general and poor - quality goods had less trading. In Weinan, the sales volume was average, and the prices were chaotic [24]. - Shanxi: In Yuncheng Linyi, the trading of inventory Fuji was okay. The remaining amount of film - bag apples was small, and the market mainly purchased paper - plus - film apples, with a stable price [24]. - Gansu: In Jingning, the remaining high - quality inventory Fuji was scarce, and the overall trading entered the later stage, with a stable and firm market situation [24]. 3. Inventory Situation - As of March 11, 2026, the apple cold - storage inventory in the main producing areas of the country was 4.9972 million tons, a decrease of 278,200 tons from the previous week. The inventory reduction rate accelerated slightly [34]. - Shandong: The storage capacity ratio was 40.05%, a decrease of 1.51% from the previous week. The export processing demand increased slightly, but the overall purchasing by merchants was dull [34]. - Shaanxi: The storage capacity ratio was 39.21%, a decrease of 2.54% from the previous week. The trading of high - quality goods improved, and the price rose slightly [34]. - Other Areas: The storage capacity ratios of Gansu, Shanxi, and Liaoning decreased to different degrees, with different trading situations [34][35]. 4. Sales Area Situation - The number of early - morning arrival vehicles at the Guangdong wholesale market increased slightly last week. The actual transactions were priced according to quality. The market sales were slow, and the purchase intention of second - and third - level wholesalers was not high [38]. 5. Apple Storage Profit Analysis - The profit of 80 first - and second - grade apple storage merchants in Qixia last week was about 0.35 yuan/jin, an increase of 0.05 yuan/jin from the previous week [44]. 6. Key Fruit Market - As of the 11th week of 2026, the average wholesale price of six key fruits monitored by the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs was 8 yuan/kg, a week - on - week increase of 0.07 yuan/kg. Most of the six types of fruits showed an upward trend, except for watermelons [48]. 7. Export Situation - In December 2025, the export volume of fresh apples was about 156,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 28.63% and a year - on - year increase of 26.76%. It is expected that the export volume in the first quarter of 2026 will increase quarter - on - quarter, which is beneficial to the recovery of apple demand [53]. 8. Production Statistics - In 2025, the domestic apple production was 3.43142 million tons, a decrease of 6.01% from the previous year. Different regions had different production changes [55][57]. 9. Market Outlook - The short - term apple futures price is expected to maintain a volatile and strong operation. The focus next week is on Tomb - Sweeping Festival stocking, market trading atmosphere, merchant replenishment, substitute fruit trading, and weather conditions in the main producing areas [58][59]. 10. Operation Strategy - The main contract of apple futures is expected to be volatile and strong in the short term. For single - side trading, consider buying on dips; for arbitrage, wait and see; for options, consider buying far - month put options [60][61].