铅周报：宏微观支撑有限，铅价弱势寻底-20260316

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Views - The re - inflation narrative restarts, and the strong US dollar suppresses the lead price. The supply of electrolytic lead refineries recovers rapidly, while the increasing losses of secondary lead refineries dampen production willingness. However, the inflow of imported crude lead increases, and overall supply continues to rise. The demand side is weak, and battery enterprises have no concentrated restocking. The supply recovery is stronger than the demand recovery, and the lead ingot inventory accumulates at a high level, dragging down the lead price. In the short term, both macro and micro supports are limited, and it is expected that the lead price will continue the weak bottom - seeking trend [3][6][7] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Transaction Data - From March 6th to March 13th, the SHFE lead price dropped from 16,775 yuan/ton to 16,555 yuan/ton, a decrease of 220 yuan/ton; the LME lead price dropped from 1,946 US dollars/ton to 1,903 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 43 US dollars/ton. The Shanghai - London ratio increased from 8.62 to 8.70. The上期所库存 increased by 9,220 tons to 76,049 tons, the LME inventory decreased by 1,400 tons to 284,500 tons, and the social inventory increased by 0.35 million tons to 7.65 million tons. The spot premium decreased from - 175 yuan/ton to - 190 yuan/ton [4] 2. Market Review - Last week, the main contract of SHFE lead, PB2604, continued to decline in shock, closing at 16,555 yuan/ton with a weekly decline of 1.31%. The LME lead fell below the 1,950 US dollars/ton line, with a decline of 2.21%, closing at 1,903 US dollars/ton. In the spot market, on March 13th, the price of Chihong lead in the Shanghai market was 16,545 - 16,595 yuan/ton, with a discount of 30 - 0 yuan/ton to the SHFE lead 2604 contract. The supply of secondary lead refineries was scarce due to losses, and the price of secondary refined lead was at a premium of 0 - 25 yuan/ton to the SMM1 lead average price [5] 3. Industry News - On March 13, 2026, the domestic lead concentrate processing fee was 250 yuan/metal ton, and the import processing fee was - 145 US dollars/dry ton, with both averages remaining flat month - on - month. The pig - gongtang lead - zinc ore concentrator of Hezhang Dingshengxin Mining Development Co., Ltd. is planned to enter trial production in July this year [8] 4. Related Charts - The report provides multiple charts, including SHFE and LME lead prices, Shanghai - London ratio, SHFE and LME inventories, 1 lead premium and discount, LME lead premium and discount, price difference between primary lead and secondary refined lead, enterprise operating rates, secondary lead enterprise profits, lead concentrate weekly processing fees, secondary refined lead production, electrolytic lead production, lead ingot social inventory, and refined lead import and export profit and loss [9][12][14][17][21][22]