铝周报：中东减产扩大，铝价延续偏强上行-20260316

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The core logic of the aluminum market still revolves around the geopolitical conflict in the Middle East. As the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz extends and the scale of production cuts in the Middle East expands, the expectation of an overseas supply gap is continuously strengthening. Meanwhile, energy prices are pushing up costs, and aluminum prices will continue to be in a strong upward state [2][7]. - The supply and demand of cast aluminum are both sluggish, and its driving effect on the market is limited. For now, cost support is dominant, and cast aluminum will continue to operate strongly [2][8]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Trading Data - The LME 3 - month aluminum price increased from 3431 yuan/ton to 3439 yuan/ton, a rise of 8 yuan/ton [3]. - The SHFE aluminum continuous - three price increased from 24845 dollars/ton to 25140 dollars/ton, a rise of 295 dollars/ton [3]. - The Shanghai - London aluminum ratio increased from 7.2 to 7.3, an increase of 0.1 [3]. - The LME spot premium decreased from 47.4 dollars/ton to 30.83 dollars/ton, a decrease of 16.6 dollars/ton [3]. - The LME aluminum inventory decreased from 456875 tons to 445300 tons, a decrease of 11575 tons [3]. - The SHFE aluminum warehouse receipt inventory increased from 329627 tons to 361968 tons, an increase of 32341 tons [3]. - The spot average price increased from 24298 yuan/ton to 25014 yuan/ton, a rise of 716 yuan/ton [3]. - The spot premium decreased from - 120 yuan/ton to - 150 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30 yuan/ton [3]. - The South China storage spot average price increased from 24268 yuan/ton to 24956 yuan/ton, a rise of 688 yuan/ton [3]. - The Shanghai - Guangdong price difference increased from 30 yuan/ton to 58 yuan/ton, an increase of 28 yuan/ton [3]. - The aluminum ingot social inventory increased from 125.6 tons to 129.4 tons, an increase of 3.8 tons [3]. - The theoretical average cost of electrolytic aluminum increased from 15858.35 yuan/ton to 15895.79 yuan/ton, an increase of 37.4 yuan/ton [3]. - The weekly average profit of electrolytic aluminum increased from 8439.66 yuan/ton to 9118.21 yuan/ton, an increase of 678.6 yuan/ton [3]. - The SMM spot price of cast aluminum increased from 24500 yuan/ton to 25200 yuan/ton, a rise of 700 yuan/ton [3]. - The Baotai spot price of cast aluminum increased from 24100 yuan/ton to 24700 yuan/ton, a rise of 600 yuan/ton [3]. - The refined - scrap price difference in Foshan increased from 2611 yuan/ton to 2646 yuan/ton, an increase of 35 yuan/ton [3]. - The refined - scrap price difference in Shanghai increased from 3418 yuan/ton to 3560 yuan/ton, an increase of 142 yuan/ton [3]. - The warehouse receipt inventory decreased from 58729 tons to 54311 tons, a decrease of 4418 tons [3]. 2. Market Review - The weekly average price of the electrolytic aluminum spot market was 25014 yuan/ton, an increase of 716 yuan/ton compared with last week; the weekly average price of the South China storage spot was 24956 yuan/ton, an increase of 688 yuan/ton compared with last week [4]. - In terms of the macro - situation, the US President Trump said that there were "almost no targets left to strike" in Iran, and the US military action against Iran was "about to end". However, Iran's Supreme Leader Muqtada al - Sadr stated that Iran would not give up revenge and would continue to take strategic measures including blocking the Strait of Hormuz [4]. - The US CPI in February increased by 0.3% month - on - month and 2.4% year - on - year, and the core CPI increased by 0.2% month - on - month and 2.5% year - on - year, all in line with market expectations. But the market believes that the February data did not reflect the impact of the oil price surge caused by the Iranian situation, and more data is needed to support the Fed's decision on when to cut interest rates again [4]. - China's CPI in February increased by 1.3% year - on - year, the highest in nearly three years. The core CPI excluding food and energy prices increased by 1.8% year - on - year. In the first two months of this year, China's total value of goods trade imports and exports was 7.73 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 18.3% [5]. - In the electrolytic aluminum consumption end, the domestic downstream aluminum processing industry's operating rate was 9%, showing a post - holiday recovery trend, with all lines increasing month - on - month, and the industry as a whole entered the normal production rhythm. High aluminum prices and macro - uncertainty are continuously suppressing the elasticity of demand release, and the quality of the traditional "Golden March" peak season remains to be seen [5]. - In terms of electrolytic aluminum inventory, on March 12, the electrolytic aluminum ingot inventory increased by 3.8 tons to 129.4 tons, and the aluminum rod inventory was 38.6 tons, a decrease of 1.2 tons compared with last week [5]. - For cast aluminum, the SMM spot price of cast aluminum alloy on Friday was 25200 yuan/ton, a rise of 700 yuan/ton compared with last Friday. The spot price of Jiangxi Baotai ADC12 was 24700 yuan/ton, a rise of 600 yuan/ton compared with last Friday. The refined - scrap price difference of Foshan crushed primary aluminum increased by 35 yuan/ton to 2646 yuan/ton, and the refined - scrap price difference of Shanghai machine - made primary aluminum increased by 142 yuan/ton to 3560 yuan/ton. The operating rate of leading recycled aluminum enterprises increased to 58.8% month - on - month. The exchange warehouse receipt inventory was 5.4 tons, a decrease of 4418 tons compared with last Friday [6]. 3. Market Outlook - In the electrolytic aluminum market, the Middle East conflict shows signs of turning into a protracted war, and shipping in the Strait of Hormuz is still blocked. Last week, a Qatari aluminum plant announced production cuts due to a natural gas shortage, and its production capacity has been reduced to 60%, with a reduction of about 25.9 tons. Some Iranian production capacities have carried out preventive production cuts, and Bahrain Aluminum announced a production cut of 31 tons of production capacity over the weekend, expanding the expected overseas supply gap. The domestic downstream operating rate after the holiday continued to rise by 2.4% to 61.9%. During the week, the aluminum ingot inventory was 129.4 tons, an increase of 3.8 tons compared with last week, and the aluminum rod inventory was 38.6 tons, a decrease of 1.2 tons compared with before the holiday. Overall, the aluminum market will continue to be in a strong upward state [7]. - In the cast aluminum market, the operating rate of aluminum alloy last week increased by 2.5% to 58.8%, and enterprises continued to resume work and production, with the operating rate slowly recovering to the pre - holiday level. In terms of imports, the overseas ADC12 price has risen to around 3400 dollars/ton due to the increase in shipping costs, and the import loss has expanded to 1800 yuan/ton, so the supply pressure of domestic cast aluminum is not large. The consumer end is slowly resuming production and has limited acceptance of high prices, and the consumption recovery is slow. Overall, both supply and demand are in a wait - and - see state. On the cost side, scrap aluminum yards have resumed work, but the reverse invoicing policy has become stricter, and the increase in circulating supply is limited. Primary aluminum has risen rapidly due to the Middle East conflict, and scrap aluminum prices have followed the increase actively, strengthening cost support. Overall, the supply and demand of cast aluminum are both sluggish, and its driving effect on the market is limited. For now, cost support is dominant, and cast aluminum will continue to operate strongly [8]. 4. Industry News - In February 2026, China exported 43 tons of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products. From January to February, China's cumulative exports of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products were 97.1 tons, a year - on - year increase of 12.8%, compared with 86.1 tons in the same period last year [12]. - Rio Tinto Group offered to provide Japanese buyers with aluminum ingots for the second quarter at a premium of 350 dollars/ton, up from the previous offer of 250 dollars/ton. The aluminum premium in Japan in the first quarter was 195 dollars/ton [12]. - Affected by the continuous fermentation of the Middle East geopolitical conflict, shipping in the Strait of Hormuz is blocked, leading to a "standstill" in the shipment of aluminum products in the region. Mercuria, the world's largest independent integrated energy and commodity trading group, plans to urgently withdraw nearly 10 tons of aluminum from the London Metal Exchange (LME) storage facilities to ease the supply gap in the European and American markets [12].