国泰君安期货商品研究晨报：贵金属及基本金属-20260316

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Gold is affected by geopolitical conflicts; silver requires attention to liquidity contraction; copper's price decline is limited by the reduction of domestic inventories; zinc prices are under pressure; lead prices are pressured by the increase of domestic inventories; tin is in a state of shock adjustment; aluminum requires attention to supply issues in the Middle East; alumina's cost is rising; cast aluminum alloy follows the trend of electrolytic aluminum; platinum requires attention to the support strength of actual demand; palladium is generally pessimistic; nickel's price is supported by the shortage of ore supply despite the accumulation of smelting inventories and macro - sentiment resonance; stainless steel is pressured by fundamentals and the macro - environment but supported by actual costs [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Gold - Price and Trading Volume: Yesterday, the closing price of Shanghai Gold 2602 was 1,153.06, with a daily decline of 2.45%, and the night - session closing price was 1144.20, with a decline of 0.22%. The trading volume of Shanghai Gold 2602 was 418,498, an increase of 25,719 compared to the previous day, and the position was 126,419, a decrease of 13,351 [5]. - Macro and Industry News: The US Q4 GDP growth rate was significantly revised down to 0.7% due to the government shutdown. The US March Michigan consumer confidence hit a three - month low. The US January core PCE price increased by 3.1% year - on - year, reaching a two - year high. China's February new social financing was 2.38 trillion yuan, new RMB loans were 900 billion yuan, and M2 increased by 9% year - on - year [5][7][8]. - Trend Intensity: Gold trend intensity is 0 [9]. Silver - Price and Trading Volume: Yesterday, the closing price of Shanghai Silver 2602 was 21854, with a daily increase of 0.86%, and the night - session closing price was 21546.00, with an increase of 1.53%. The trading volume of Shanghai Silver 2602 was 526,514, a decrease of 187,374 compared to the previous day, and the position was 150,089, a decrease of 11,077 [5]. - Trend Intensity: Silver trend intensity is 0 [9]. Copper - Price and Trading Volume: Yesterday, the closing price of the Shanghai Copper main contract was 100,310, with a daily decline of 0.69%, and the night - session closing price was 99730, with a decline of 0.58%. The trading volume of the Shanghai Copper index was 183,195, a decrease of 16,426 compared to the previous day, and the position was 579,456, a decrease of 1,832 [10]. - Macro and Industry News: The US is reported to have sent marines and warships to the Middle East. Trump claimed to launch a "violent air strike" on Iran next week. Mongolia is seeking to renegotiate the "unfair" business terms of the Oyu Tolgoi copper mine. Zambia aims to triple copper production by 2031. Rio Tinto suspended the operation of its Kennecott copper mine in Utah [10][12]. - Trend Intensity: Copper trend intensity is 0 [12]. Zinc - Price and Trading Volume: Yesterday, the closing price of the Shanghai Zinc main contract was 24140, with a daily decline of 0.66%. The trading volume of the Shanghai Zinc main contract was 85941, a decrease of 23062 compared to the previous day, and the position was 75191, an increase of 2465 [13]. - News: Sino - US economic and trade consultations will be held from March 14th to 17th. China's February new social financing was 2.38 trillion yuan, new RMB loans were 900 billion yuan, and M2 increased by 9% year - on - year [14]. - Trend Intensity: Zinc trend intensity is - 1 [15]. Lead - Price and Trading Volume: Yesterday, the closing price of the Shanghai Lead main contract was 16555, with a daily decline of 0.36%. The trading volume of the Shanghai Lead main contract was 45931, an increase of 15603 compared to the previous day, and the position was 63681, an increase of 1415 [16]. - News: The US is reported to have sent marines and warships to the Middle East. Trump claimed to launch a "violent air strike" on Iran next week [17]. - Trend Intensity: Lead trend intensity is 0 [17]. Tin - Price and Trading Volume: Yesterday, the closing price of the Shanghai Tin main contract was 374,110, with a daily decline of 4.14%, and the night - session closing price was 372,860, with a decline of 3.31%. The trading volume of the Shanghai Tin main contract was 227,740, an increase of 12,579 compared to the previous day, and the position was 35,386, an increase of 2,288 [20]. - Macro and Industry News: The US Q4 GDP growth rate was significantly revised down to 0.7% due to the government shutdown. The US military claimed to have "successfully attacked" more than 90 military targets on Iran's Kharg Island. China's State Council executive meeting studied the establishment of a negative list management mechanism for local fiscal subsidies. Meta plans to lay off 20% of its employees [22]. - Trend Intensity: Tin trend intensity is 0 [21]. Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy - Price and Trading Volume: The closing price of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract was 24960, a decrease of 280 compared to the previous day. The closing price of the Shanghai Alumina main contract was 2956, an increase of 91 compared to the previous day. The closing price of the aluminum alloy main contract was 23655, a decrease of 335 compared to the previous day [23]. - Comprehensive News: Trump launched a "violent air strike" on Iran's Kharg Island. Iran said it would retaliate if attacked. The US January core PCE price increased by 3.1% year - on - year [24]. - Trend Intensity: Aluminum trend intensity is 1; alumina trend intensity is 1; aluminum alloy trend intensity is 1 [24]. Platinum and Palladium - Price and Trading Volume: Yesterday, the closing price of platinum futures 2606 was 541.60, with a decline of 4.08%. The closing price of palladium futures 2606 was 408.10, with a decline of 2.04% [26]. - Macro and Industry News: Sino - US economic and trade consultations began in Paris [28]. - Trend Intensity: Platinum trend intensity is - 1; palladium trend intensity is - 1 [29]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - Price and Trading Volume: The closing price of the Shanghai Nickel main contract was 136,930, a decrease of 1,170 compared to the previous day. The closing price of the stainless steel main contract was 14,190, a decrease of 95 compared to the previous day [31]. - Macro and Industry News: Indonesia plans to revise the benchmark price formula for nickel ore. Solway Investment Group plans to restart its nickel mine in Guatemala. The Indonesian government has approved a nickel ore production quota. There were various incidents in the nickel industry such as landslides and production suspensions [31][32][35]. - Trend Intensity: Nickel trend intensity is 0; stainless steel trend intensity is 0 [38].