银河期货纯苯苯乙烯产业链期货周报-20260316

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. Group 2: Report's Core View - Affected by concerns over stable upstream raw material supply, some domestic refineries have taken preventive measures to reduce their load, leading to a decline in the supply of domestic raw materials. The operating rates of pure benzene and styrene have both decreased. This week, the operating rate of pure benzene was 77.48%, a week-on-week decrease of 2.32%, and the operating load of styrene was 71.62%, a decrease of 3.57% from the previous period. With the Strait of Hormuz being affected, the import and export of styrene from the Middle East to Eurasia will be restricted, and Iranian styrene plants are in a temporary shutdown state, which will drive the domestic styrene export market. If the Strait of Hormuz fails to operate normally for a long time, it will affect the supply of refineries, leading to a passive reduction in refinery load and further affecting the supply of aromatic products. As the downstream of styrene enters the peak season, the load is expected to rise. Subsequently, continuous attention should be paid to the impact of Middle East logistics transportation on supply and the risk of a decline should be guarded against [6]. - The overall driving force of the aromatic hydrocarbon sector is upward due to the preventive load reduction of refineries. Subsequently, continuous attention should be paid to the impact of Middle East logistics transportation on supply and the risk of a decline should be guarded against. The trading strategies include: unilateral trading (the overall driving force of the aromatic hydrocarbon sector is upward, but the risk of a decline should be guarded against), arbitrage (positive arbitrage), and options (wait and see) [6]. Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies 1.1 Raw Material Shortage Leads to a Decrease in Pure Benzene Supply - This week, the operating load of petroleum benzene was 77.48%, a decrease of 3.32 percentage points from last week. Zhejiang Petrochemical shut down a 3.8 million - ton reforming unit, Gulei Petrochemical started maintenance on March 9, and Daxie's PX unit stopped on the 9th, resulting in a slight decrease in load [11]. - On March 11, 2026, the inventory of pure benzene in East China port trade was 296,000 tons, a decrease of 13,000 tons from March 4, a month - on - month decrease of 4.21% and a year - on - year increase of 98.66% [11]. - Some devices in Japan and South Korea announced force majeure, and the market expected a supply shortage, causing the price of pure benzene to rise. Sinopec's East China, South China, Central China, and North China branches along the Yangtze River and coastal areas set the listed price of pure benzene at 8,400 yuan/ton, which has been officially implemented since March 12 [11]. 1.2 More Maintenance of Downstream Styrene and Stable Demand from Other Downstreams - There are many styrene device maintenance plans. For example, Tangshan Xuyang's 300,000 - ton/year device failed and stopped on the evening of January 20, 2026, and is planned to restart in late March; Gulei Petrochemical's 600,000 - ton/year device is planned to stop for maintenance from March 7 to April 28, etc. [15]. - This week, the operating load of styrene was 71.62%, a decrease of 3.57 percentage points from last week. The domestic production reduction this week mainly came from the planned shutdown and maintenance of Gulei Petrochemical's 600,000 - ton/year device, the load reduction of Zhonghua Quanzhou's 450,000 - ton/year device due to raw material problems, and the load reduction of Tianjin Dagu and Tianjin Bohua during the meeting as required by management. The industry profit of styrene has gradually recovered, and the processing profit is at a high level in the past five years. Styrene producers' willingness to produce has increased, and they are locking in processing differentials and actively shipping [17]. Chapter 2: Core Logic Analysis 2.1 Recent Device Dynamics and Maintenance Plans of Styrene - Multiple styrene devices have maintenance plans. For example, Tangshan Xuyang's 300,000 - ton/year device failed and stopped on January 20, 2026, and is planned to restart in late March; Gulei Petrochemical's 600,000 - ton/year device is planned to stop for maintenance from March 7 to April 28; Hengli Petrochemical's 720,000 - ton/year device is planned to stop for maintenance around March 15 for about 10 days, etc. [15]. 2.2 Load Decline and Profit Expansion - This week, the operating load of styrene was 71.62%, a decrease of 3.57 percentage points from last week. The domestic production reduction mainly came from the planned shutdown and maintenance of Gulei Petrochemical's 600,000 - ton/year device, the load reduction of Zhonghua Quanzhou's 450,000 - ton/year device due to raw material problems, and the load reduction of Tianjin Dagu and Tianjin Bohua during the meeting as required by management. The industry profit of styrene has gradually recovered, and the processing profit is at a high level in the past five years. Styrene producers' willingness to produce has increased, and they are locking in processing differentials and actively shipping [17]. 2.3 More Overseas Long - Shutdown Devices - The profits of global styrene have been compressed to varying degrees. Not only are there long - shutdown devices in China, but the number of overseas shutdown devices is also gradually increasing. The total production capacity of overseas shutdown devices is 3.842 million tons, accounting for 16% of the total production capacity outside the Chinese mainland. As the number of shutdowns in the Americas and Europe increases, attention should be paid to whether the styrene gap in Europe and surrounding areas will increase in the future [20]. 2.4 Shutdown and Maintenance of Styrene Devices Outside the Chinese Mainland in 2026 - In 2026, styrene maintenance outside the Chinese mainland is mostly concentrated in the first half of the year, with the maintenance volume increasing in the first quarter and reaching a peak in April, and then decreasing [23]. 2.5 Styrene Export and Inventory - According to the announcement of the General Administration of Customs of the People's Republic of China, the import and export data for January 2026 will be postponed to March. It is estimated that the styrene export volume in January may be between 40,000 and 50,000 tons. According to multiple market channels, China's styrene transactions in February were around 40,000 tons. The export transactions for loading in January and February have increased. After the Spring Festival, the export demand has remained strong, with significant transactions in exports to Europe. Coupled with the subsequent loading of previously concluded transactions, it is expected that exports will increase significantly from March to June. The port inventory of styrene has accumulated seasonally after the Spring Festival. Attention should be paid to the implementation of subsequent device maintenance, and it is expected to re - enter the destocking cycle [26]. 2.6 Styrene Downstream Operating Rate and Profit - The inventory index of EPS enterprises is 45.63, a decrease of 5.01 from last week. The predicted value of the PS enterprise inventory index is 78.15, a decrease of 2.35 from the previous final value. The inventory index of ABS enterprises is 75.26, a decrease of 2.74 from last week (78.00) [38]. Chapter 3: Weekly Data Tracking 3.1 Pure Benzene - Price: The price trends of pure benzene in East China spot and related downstream products are presented in the report, including EPS, PS, and ABS spot prices [44][45]. - Profit: The production profit of pure benzene, the production profit of styrene by ethylbenzene dehydrogenation, and the profits of downstream products such as phenol, adipic acid, caprolactam, and aniline are presented [52][54]. - Operating Rate: The operating rates of pure benzene and hydro - benzene are presented, as well as the operating rates of downstream products such as styrene, caprolactam, phenol, aniline, and adipic acid [58][64]. - Inventory: The inventory of pure benzene in ports is presented [60]. 3.2 Styrene - Price: The spot price of styrene in East China is presented [70]. - Profit: The production profit of styrene by ethylbenzene dehydrogenation and the profits of downstream products such as EPS, PS, and ABS are presented [73]. - Operating Rate: The operating rates of styrene, PS, ABS, EPS, and phenol are presented [78]. - Inventory: The port inventories of styrene, including in East China and South China, are presented [81].