宁证期货今日早评-20260316

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - The report provides short - term evaluations and outlooks for multiple commodities, including coal, asphalt, iron ore, etc. It takes into account factors such as supply and demand, geopolitical conflicts, and cost changes to predict the price trends of these commodities [1][2][4]. Summary by Commodity Coal - For coking coal, the capacity utilization rate of independent coking enterprises is 73.91%, a decrease of 0.04%. Coke daily output is 63.90 tons, a decrease of 0.04 tons. Coke inventory is 100.43 tons, a decrease of 9.87 tons. Coking coal inventory is 969.43 tons, an increase of 19.98 tons. The available days of coking coal are 11.4 days, an increase of 0.24 days. The price is affected by macro - expectations and geopolitical conflicts. If the conflict continues, it may follow the strong performance of crude oil; if it eases, it is expected to fluctuate [1]. Asphalt - As of the week of March 13, the asphalt开工率 decreased by 6.51 percentage points to 24.75%, and the weekly output decreased by 10.39 tons to 37.94 tons. The demand is weak. If the Strait is blocked for too long, domestic refineries will face raw material shortages. Geopolitics is the main logic, and it is recommended to grasp the opportunity of long - position operation at low levels [2]. Iron Ore - The inventory of imported iron ore in 45 ports is 17187.52 tons, an increase of 69.66 tons. The daily port clearance volume is 317.90 tons, an increase of 6.82 tons. The number of ships in the port is 110, a decrease of 2. In the short - term, it is expected to fluctuate; in the medium - to - long - term, the high - inventory pressure is difficult to relieve, and it is expected to be weak [4]. Rebar - The blast furnace开工率 of 247 steel mills is 78.34%, an increase of 0.63 percentage points. The blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate is 82.92%, a decrease of 2.40 percentage points. The steel mill profitability rate is 41.13%, an increase of 3.03 percentage points. The daily hot metal output is 221.2 tons, a decrease of 6.39 tons. The supply is at a high level, the demand is seasonally improving, but the fundamentals have not improved. The steel price is still under pressure, but the strong raw materials provide cost support. It is expected to continue to fluctuate and stabilize [4]. Pig - As of March 13, the average slaughter weight of pigs is 123.17 kg, the same as last week. The weekly slaughter开工率 is 29.34%, a decrease of 0.02%. The profit of purchasing piglets for breeding is - 143.87 yuan per head, a decrease of 56.45 yuan. The profit of self - breeding and self - raising is - 233.72 yuan per head, a decrease of 57.38 yuan. The price of piglets is 317.14 yuan per head, a decrease of 22.15 yuan. The pig price is stable, the breeding end has pressure to sell, but there are signs of price stabilization. The medium - to - long - term downward space of pig futures is limited, the near - month contract fluctuates at the bottom, and the far - month contract fluctuates strongly [5]. Soybean Meal - The domestic soybean meal spot price has increased. The price in Tianjin is 3430 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan; in Shandong is 3340 yuan/ton, an increase of 60 yuan; in Jiangsu is 3330 yuan/ton, an increase of 80 yuan; in Guangdong is 3420 yuan/ton, an increase of 70 yuan. The 05 contract of Dalian soybean meal has strong support below. The domestic oil mill开工率 is gradually recovering, and the inventory is rising. The downstream feed enterprises are resistant to high - price spot. In the short - term, the price fluctuates strongly, and attention should be paid to the risk of decline [6]. Palm Oil - From March 1 to 15, Malaysia's palm oil exports increased by 43.5% compared with the same period last month. Crude oil provides cost support, and the increase in exports boosts market sentiment. The domestic spot inventory pressure is large, and the sales are not good. In the short - term, it is expected to fluctuate at a high level, with strong support below. Short - long trading is recommended [6]. Copper - Rio Tinto suspended the mining operations of its Kennecott copper mine in the United States after an accident. It may disrupt the regional copper concentrate supply in the short - term, with limited impact on the domestic supply. The domestic demand is improving. The copper price is currently suppressed by risk - aversion sentiment and stagflation concerns, and is expected to fluctuate in the short - term [8]. Crude Oil - As of March 13, the number of active drilling rigs in the United States is 412, an increase of 1 compared with the previous week and a decrease of 75 compared with the same period last year. Due to the Iran war, Saudi Arabia has cut oil production, and the supply is expected to be significantly tightened. Although the IEA member countries have agreed to release strategic oil reserves, the core contradiction in the market remains unresolved. The oil price is still supported, and it is recommended to grasp the opportunity of long - position operation at low levels [9]. Methanol - The market price of methanol in Jiangsu Taicang is 2825 yuan/ton, an increase of 15 yuan. The port inventory is 131.28 tons, a decrease of 13.07 tons. The production enterprise inventory is 52.31 tons, a decrease of 2.93 tons. The order backlog is 26.53 tons, a decrease of 2.98 tons. The domestic methanol capacity utilization rate is 90.15%, a decrease of 0.16%. The downstream capacity utilization rate is 70.36%, an increase of 0.89%. The domestic methanol开工率 is high, the downstream is gradually resuming work, and the demand is recovering. The port inventory is decreasing. It is expected to fluctuate slightly stronger in the short - term [10]. Fuel Oil - The inventory of Singapore fuel oil in the week of March 11 is 2449.9 barrels, a decrease of 125 barrels. The high - sulfur fuel oil price is 777.39 dollars/ton, and the low - sulfur fuel oil price is 931.2 dollars/ton. The fuel oil market is highly sensitive to geopolitical situations. It is recommended to grasp the opportunity of long - position operation at low levels [11]. Alumina - As of last Thursday, the national alumina weekly开工率 is 77.08%, a slight decrease of 0.05 percentage points. The开工率 in Guizhou has decreased by 5 percentage points to 79.33%, and in Shanxi has increased slightly by 1 percentage point to 70.74%. The decrease in开工率 is mainly due to maintenance in Guizhou. The price is supported by enterprise maintenance and rising shipping costs, but the high inventory and new production capacity limit the rebound space. It is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short - term [12]. Tin - It is expected that the global smartphone shipments may decrease by 17% in 2026. The demand for tin solder is affected. The supply in Myanmar is expected to recover. The tin price is expected to be under pressure and fluctuate in the short - term [12]. Plastic - The mainstream price of LLDPE in North China is 8325 yuan/ton, a decrease of 147 yuan compared with the previous day. The weekly output is 31.49 tons, a decrease of 5.38%. The production enterprise inventory is 24.9 tons, an increase of 3.71%. The oil - based daily production profit is - 1433 yuan/ton. The average开工率 of downstream products has decreased by 5.5%. The cost support is strong, but the demand is weak. It is expected to fluctuate in the short - term [13]. Soda Ash - The national heavy - soda ash mainstream price is 1261 yuan/ton, and the price is slowly rising. The weekly output is 80.92 tons, a decrease of 0.27%. The manufacturer's total inventory is 193.17 tons, a decrease of 0.8%. The float glass开工率 is 71.05%, an increase of 0.24 percentage points. The average price of float glass is 1159 yuan/ton, an increase of 2 yuan compared with the previous day. The inventory of float glass sample enterprises is 7584.9 ten - thousand heavy boxes, a decrease of 4.76%. The domestic soda ash market is stable and fluctuating. The supply is increasing, and the demand is average. The price is expected to fluctuate slightly weakly in the short - term [14]. Five - Year Treasury Bond - Important data such as industrial production and consumption from January to February will be released on March 16. The bond market may be affected. The five - year treasury bond may be affected by both the capital and economic fundamentals. It is expected to fluctuate in a triangular pattern, and the guidance from the Politburo meeting in April is awaited [14]. Gold - The Middle East conflict continues, inflation expectations are rising, and risk - aversion sentiment exists. The short - term downward space of gold is limited, and it is expected to fluctuate at a high level in the medium - term [16]. Silver - The US inflation data is rising, which weakens the expectation of interest rate cuts. The upward momentum of silver is weakened. It may further seek support downward and is expected to fluctuate at a high level in the medium - term [16].