美伊冲突持续升级，贵金属走势承压

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - Last week, precious metal prices fluctuated weakly. The continuous escalation of the Middle - East geopolitical conflict led to a decrease in the Fed's interest rate cut expectations, a rebound in the US dollar index and US Treasury yields, suppressing the precious metal price trend [3][6]. - The US - Iran war has entered its third week. Iran has blocked the Strait of Hormuz, launched missiles and drones, and shows no intention to seek a cease - fire. Trump is facing pressure to end the conflict, but the internal consideration is to maintain the war for another four to six weeks [3][6]. - The ongoing conflict in the Middle East is driving up global inflation expectations and making the market re - evaluate central bank policies. The market expects the Fed to hold rates in March, with less than one rate cut expected this year. The eurozone is expected to raise rates twice this year. Precious metals are expected to show a weak trend [3][7]. Summary by Directory 1. Last Week's Trading Data | Contract | Closing Price | Change | Change % | Total Volume (Lots) | Total Open Interest (Lots) | Price Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SHFE Gold | 1133.00 | - 7.80 | - 0.68 | 102674 | 178255 | Yuan/gram | | Shanghai Gold T+D | 1131.25 | - 7.21 | - 0.63 | 52266 | 238270 | Yuan/gram | | COMEX Gold | 5023.10 | - 158.20 | - 3.05 | | | US dollars/ounce | | SHFE Silver | 20923 | - 931 | - 4.26 | 522479 | 634627 | Yuan/kilogram | | Shanghai Silver T+D | 20887 | - 463 | - 2.17 | 226134 | 2886170 | Yuan/kilogram | | COMEX Silver | 80.65 | - 4.05 | - 4.78 | | | US dollars/ounce | | GFEX Platinum | 541.60 | - 18.90 | - 3.37 | 4742 | 7612 | Yuan/gram | | Platinum 9995 | 541.35 | - 10.62 | - 1.92 | | | Yuan/gram | | NYMEX Platinum | 2024.50 | - 10.62 | - 5.92 | | | US dollars/ounce | | GFEX Palladium | 408.10 | - 10.62 | - 3.18 | 1969 | 7612 | Yuan/gram | | NYMEX Palladium | 1561.00 | - 10.62 | - 5.79 | | | US dollars/ounce | [4] 2. Market Analysis and Outlook - Precious metal prices fluctuated weakly last week due to the Middle - East geopolitical conflict, which reduced Fed rate - cut expectations and boosted the US dollar and Treasury yields [3][6]. - The US - Iran war situation is tense. Iran's actions have caused dissatisfaction among Gulf allies. Trump is under pressure, but the conflict may continue for another four to six weeks [3][6]. - US inflation data met market expectations. The Fed is expected to maintain rates in the upcoming policy meeting, and rising inflation may delay rate cuts [6]. - The Middle - East conflict is escalating, driving up global inflation and changing central bank policy expectations. Precious metals are expected to be weak [7]. 3. Important Data Information - In January, the US core PCE rose 3.1% year - on - year, the highest since March 2024, with a 0.4% month - on - month increase, in line with expectations [9]. - In February, the US CPI rose 0.3% month - on - month and 2.4% year - on - year, with core CPI rising 0.2% month - on - month and 2.5% year - on - year, meeting expectations [9]. - In January, US JOLTS job openings increased by 396,000 to 6.946 million, higher than the expected 6.75 million, indicating labor market improvement [9]. - Last week, the US initial jobless claims decreased by 1,000 to 213,000, slightly below expectations. The January trade deficit narrowed by 25% to $54.5 billion, and exports increased by 5.5% month - on - month [9]. - The revised US GDP in Q4 last year grew 0.7% annually, down from the initial 1.4%. January durable goods orders were flat, far below the expected 1.1% growth [9]. - The preliminary March University of Michigan consumer sentiment index dropped to 55.5 from 56.6 in February. Consumers expect 3.4% price increases in the next year, lower than the expected 3.7% [9]. - The energy price surge caused by the Iran war has changed European Central Bank policy expectations. The market now prices in two 25 - basis - point rate hikes by the ECB this year, and the Bank of England is expected to raise rates 15 basis points [10]. 4. Relevant Data Charts - CFTC Non - commercial Positions Changes: For gold futures, on March 10, 2026, non - commercial long positions were 324,875, short positions were 63,135, and net long positions were 261,740, an increase of 12,210 from the previous week. For silver futures, on March 10, 2026, non - commercial long positions were 33,306, short positions were 8,728, and net long positions were 24,578, an increase of 1,240 from the previous week [12][14]. - Precious Metal ETF Holdings Changes: As of March 13, 2026, the total ETF gold holding was 1,071.56 tons, a decrease of 1.76 tons from the previous week. The iShares silver holding was 15,460.18 tons, a decrease of 301.44 tons from the previous week [13]. - There are also multiple charts showing the relationship between precious metal prices and various factors such as inventory, US dollar, inflation, etc. [15][17][19][21][23][25][28][33][35][37][39][41][43]