豆粕周报：多因素共振，两粕大幅走强-20260316

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, the CBOT May soybean contract rose 22 to close at 1223.75 cents per bushel, a 1.83% increase; the soybean meal 05 contract rose 213 to close at 3128 yuan per ton, a 7.31% increase; the South China soybean meal spot price rose 280 to 3380 yuan per ton, a 9.03% increase; the rapeseed meal 05 contract rose 217 to close at 2591 yuan per ton, a 9.14% increase; the Guangxi rapeseed meal spot price rose 230 to 2630 yuan per ton, a 9.58% increase [3][6]. - The continuous escalation of the US - Iran conflict and the continuous strengthening of oil prices continue to boost the US soybean market; China and the US are holding the sixth round of economic and trade consultations in France, and attention should be paid to China's subsequent procurement trends of US soybeans; Brazil's export supply remains high, but there are still disturbances due to quarantine issues. In China, the arrival of soybeans in March is relatively small, coupled with the increase in import costs and the logistics disturbances caused by the war, the expectation of supply tightening has increased, leading to a significant strengthening of the Dalian soybean meal, and the rapeseed meal was driven to rise significantly [3][6]. - The Middle - East conflict is still ongoing, and the concern about the energy crisis has intensified, which brings a boost to the US soybean market. China and the US are holding economic and trade consultations in France, and attention should be paid to the relevant agreements on US soybean procurement. The quarantine issues of Brazilian soybeans have brought disturbances. Pay attention to the China - Brazil talks before the end of the month, and subsequent shipments and export supplies may be accelerated. In China, the overall arrival of soybeans in March is relatively small, the supply is tightening, coupled with the increase in import costs and international shipping logistics and other influencing factors, both soybean meal and rapeseed meal closed significantly higher last week. It is expected that the Dalian soybean meal will fluctuate strongly in the short term [3][10]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Data | Contract | Mar 13 | Mar 6 | Change | Change Rate | Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | CBOT Soybean | 1223.75 | 1201.75 | 22.00 | 1.83% | Cents per bushel | | CNF Import Price: Brazil | 495.00 | 472.00 | 23.00 | 4.87% | US dollars per ton | | CNF Import Price: US Gulf | 536.00 | 519.00 | 17.00 | 3.28% | US dollars per ton | | Brazilian Soybean Crushing Margin on the Futures Market | 124.27 | 64.41 | 59.85 | - | Yuan per ton | | DCE Soybean Meal | 3128.00 | 2915.00 | 213.00 | 7.31% | Yuan per ton | | CZCE Rapeseed Meal | 2591.00 | 2374.00 | 217.00 | 9.14% | Yuan per ton | | Soybean Meal - Rapeseed Meal Price Difference | 537.00 | 541.00 | -4.00 | - | Yuan per ton | | Spot Price: East China | 3320.00 | 3060.00 | 260.00 | 8.50% | Yuan per ton | | Spot Price: South China | 3380.00 | 3100.00 | 280.00 | 9.03% | Yuan per ton | | Spot - Futures Price Difference: South China | 252.00 | 185.00 | 67.00 | - | Yuan per ton | [4] 3.2 Market Analysis and Outlook - The impact of the March USDA report is generally limited. The data shows that the expected ending inventory of US soybeans in the 2025/2026 season is 350 million bushels, unchanged from the previous month; the expected soybean production in Brazil in the 2025/2026 season is 180 million tons, unchanged, while the market expectation is 179.06 million tons; the expected soybean production in Argentina in the 2025/2026 season is revised down from 48.5 million tons to 48 million tons, and the market expectation is 48.11 million tons [7]. - As of the week ending March 5, 2026, the net increase in US soybean export sales in the 2025/2026 season was 457,000 tons, compared with 383,000 tons in the previous week; the cumulative sales volume of US soybeans in the current season is 36.49 million tons, with a sales progress of 85.1%, compared with 88.3% in the same period last year; China's net purchase of US soybeans in that week was 83,000 tons, with a cumulative purchase volume of 10.9 million tons and an unshipped volume of 3.593 million tons [7]. - As of the week ending March 6, 2026, the gross profit of US soybean crushing (the price difference between soybeans, soybean oil, and soybean meal) was 2.94 US dollars per bushel, compared with 3.04 US dollars per bushel in the previous week. The spot price of 48% protein soybean meal at soybean processing plants in Illinois was 313.88 US dollars per short ton, compared with 321.92 US dollars per short ton in the previous week. The truck - quoted price of crude soybean oil in Illinois was 64.61 cents per pound, compared with 60.61 cents per pound in the previous week. The average price of No. 1 yellow soybeans was 11.98 US dollars per bushel, compared with 11.59 US dollars per bushel in the previous week [8]. - According to the Conab institution, as of March 7, the soybean harvest rate in Brazil was 50.6%, compared with 41.7% last week and 60.9% in the same period last year, with a five - year average of 48.5%. The harvest progress in Mato Grosso was 89.2%, compared with 81.3% last week and 91.7% in the same period last year. The harvest progress in Paraná was 46%, compared with 37% last week and 60% in the same period last year. The harvest progress in South Mato Grosso was 61%, compared with 50% last week and 70% in the same period last year. The Brazilian National Association of Grain Exporters announced that the expected soybean exports in March were 16.47 million tons, compared with the previous estimate of 16.09 million tons and 15.7 million tons in the same period last year [8]. - The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange reported that as of the week ending March 11, 2026, in terms of crop conditions, the proportion of normal and excellent crops was 76%, compared with 74% in the previous week and 75% in the same period last year. The weather forecast shows that in the next 15 days, the cumulative precipitation in the Argentine production area will be around the normal level, which is conducive to stabilizing the current production forecast [9]. - As of the week ending March 6, 2026, the soybean inventory of major oil mills was 5.7267 million tons, a decrease of 240,200 tons from last week and an increase of 2.0257 million tons compared with the same period last year; the soybean meal inventory was 760,500 tons, an increase of 59,300 tons from last week and an increase of 167,600 tons compared with the same period last year; the unexecuted contracts were 4.3064 million tons, an increase of 1.3912 million tons from last week and an increase of 1.3204 million tons compared with the same period last year. The soybean inventory in national ports was 5.794 million tons, a decrease of 506,000 tons from last week and an increase of 1.7912 million tons compared with the same period last year [9]. - As of the week ending March 13, the weekly average daily trading volume of soybean meal nationwide was 168,700 tons, of which the spot trading volume was 141,100 tons and the forward trading volume was 27,600 tons. The average daily total trading volume in the week before the festival was 88,600 tons; the weekly average daily pick - up volume of soybean meal was 177,120 tons, compared with 158,100 tons in the week before the festival; the crushing volume of major oil mills was 1.9694 million tons, compared with 1.833 million tons in the week before the festival; the inventory days of soybean meal in feed enterprises were 8.64 days, compared with 9.14 days in the previous week [10]. 3.3 Industry News - According to foreign media institutions, as of March 6, the soybean harvest progress in Brazil in the 2025/26 season was 47.4%, compared with 58.7% in the same period last year and 52.6% in the same period in 2024. The average harvest progress in the same period in the past five years was 47.8%. In the past week, the soybean harvesting work in various parts of Brazil has advanced steadily. The rainfall in some central and southern parts of Brazil has decreased, which is conducive to field operations. Although the harvesting speed has slowed down compared with the previous two years, it is still consistent with the five - year average level. The yield fluctuates greatly, but overall, the harvest situation is good [11]. - The Agricultural Economics Institute of Mato Grosso State released that as of March 6, the soybean harvest progress in the 2025/26 season in the state had reached 89.15% of the planted area, lower than 91.84% in the same period last year and higher than the historical average of 81.99% in the same period. It is predicted that the soybean production in the state in the 2025/26 season will be 50.5 million tons, a 0.74% decrease from the record - high production last year [12]. - According to the latest report of the Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) of the US Department of Agriculture (USDA), after the dry weather in January, the timely rainfall in February stabilized the crop conditions in Argentina, and the estimated soybean production in the 2025 - 26 season remains at 48 million tons. FAS said in the report: "In the critical stage of crop development, some second - season soybean crops may have been affected by the drought in January, but the precipitation in February should alleviate some of the yield losses caused by the January drought, but not all." If FAS's estimate is realized, the soybean production in Argentina this year will be 5% less than 51.1 million tons in the 2024 - 25 season. However, this will still be the fourth - highest level in the past 10 years [12]. - According to the European Commission, as of March 8, the import volume of rapeseed in the EU in the 2025/26 season was 3.01 million tons, compared with 4.72 million tons last year. The import volume of palm oil in the EU in the 2025/26 season was 1.99 million tons, compared with 2.02 million tons last year [12]. - The IMEA institution released that in the past week (from February 27 to March 6), the soybean crushing profit in Mato Grosso State, Brazil was 662.00 Brazilian reals per ton, compared with 676 Brazilian reals per ton in the previous period. The price of 46% protein soybean meal in Mato Grosso State was 1601.53 Brazilian reals per ton, compared with 1590.03 Brazilian reals per ton in the previous period. The average price of soybean oil in Mato Grosso State was 5786.25 Brazilian reals per ton, compared with 5815.00 Brazilian reals per ton in the previous period. The average price of soybeans in Mato Grosso State was 102.43 Brazilian reals per bag, compared with 102.52 Brazilian reals per bag in the previous period [13]. - According to foreign media reports, the soybean harvesting work in various parts of Paraná State, Brazil has reached a climax. Some areas have completed the harvest, while some areas are in the final stage of harvesting. The dry weather has enabled the harvesting work to proceed smoothly, and significant progress has been made in mechanical operations. The Agricultural Economics Department of Paraná State (Deral) attributes this situation to the irregular rainfall and temperature fluctuations throughout the growing season. For crops in the pod - filling stage, the recent drought has led to water shortages. In other areas, the recent rainfall has temporarily interrupted field operations [13]. - The Brazilian National Petroleum Company plans to auction about 20 million liters of diesel in Rio Grande do Sul State to address the market's concern about fuel shortages and relieve the harvest pressure on farmers. The impact of rising diesel prices has been felt globally, and the Brazilian agricultural sector is the first to be affected. Since Brazil is currently in the harvest season of record - high soybeans and farmers also need to sow second - season corn crops in a timely manner, agricultural machinery and transportation are highly dependent on diesel. Therefore, the increase in fuel costs will significantly increase production expenses and affect the operation progress. One of the purposes of this auction is to ease market sentiment and replenish the supply in the short term [14]. - The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration predicts that the climate system will change from the La Niña phenomenon to a neutral state within the next month, and this state will last until the end of spring, and then change to the El Niño phenomenon in summer. The probability of the El Niño phenomenon occurring from June to August is 62%. The El Niño phenomenon usually brings wet and cold weather to the southern states, while the northern regions are warmer and drier [14]. - The Rosario Grain Exchange decided to maintain the estimated production of soybeans and corn in the 2025/26 season unchanged. Although there were drought concerns in some areas before, the extensive rainfall in February significantly improved the crop conditions in major agricultural production areas. Currently, it is expected that the soybean production in Argentina in the 2025/26 season will be 48 million tons, and the corn production will be 62 million tons, both consistent with the previous forecasts [14]. 3.4 Related Charts - The report provides multiple charts, including the trend of the US soybean continuous contract, the CNF arrival price of Brazilian soybeans, the RMB spot exchange rate trend, the regional crushing profit, the management fund's net position in the CBOT, the soybean meal main contract trend, the spot prices of soybean meal in different regions, the spot - futures price difference of soybean meal, the M 5 - 9 month - spread of soybean meal, the precipitation and temperature in Brazilian and Argentine soybean production areas, the soybean harvest progress in Brazil, the crop conditions of soybeans in Argentina, the cumulative sales volume, weekly net sales volume, and weekly export volume of US soybeans, the US oil mill crushing profit, the weekly average daily trading volume and pick - up volume of soybean meal, the soybean inventory in ports and oil mills, the weekly crushing volume of oil mills, the unexecuted contracts of oil mills, the soybean meal inventory of oil mills, and the inventory days of soybean meal in feed enterprises [15][16][17][18][20][22][24][26][28][31][32][34][36][38][40][44][46]