铝周报：沪铝或延续震荡偏强趋势-20260316

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - Aluminum prices are expected to show a mainly fluctuating and strengthening trend, with limited arbitrage opportunities. It is recommended to mainly observe option contracts [7][35] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - As of last week, the price of the main contract AL2604 of Shanghai aluminum futures showed a fluctuating trend, ranging from around 24,450 yuan/ton to a maximum of about 25,860 yuan/ton [9] 3.2 Macroeconomic Aspect - In February 2026, the national consumer price increased by 1.3% year - on - year. The average consumer price from January to February increased by 0.8% compared with the same period of the previous year. In February, the consumer price increased by 1.0% month - on - month [4][11][12] 3.3 Supply and Demand Situation - As of February 2025, the domestic alumina in - production capacity was 93.5 million tons, with a total capacity of 114.62 million tons and an operating rate of 81.57%. As of February 2026, the electrolytic aluminum in - production capacity was 44.916 million tons, with a total capacity of 45.402 million tons and an operating rate of 98.93% [15] - As of March 12, 2026, the total national aluminum rod inventory was 372,000 tons, a decrease of 7,500 tons compared with the previous period. Regionally, the inventory in Foshan was 162,000 tons, in Wuxi was 135,000 tons, and in Nanchang was 11,000 tons [22] 3.4 Inventory Situation - As of March 13, 2026, the electrolytic aluminum inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 416,425 tons, an increase of 21,927 tons from the previous week. As of March 12, 2026, the LME aluminum inventory was 447,300 tons, a decrease of 2,825 tons from the previous trading day, and the proportion of cancelled warrants was 38.77% [25] - As of March 12, 2026, the total social inventory of electrolytic aluminum was 1.2612 million tons, an increase of 35,000 tons from the previous day [26]