纯碱周报：情绪回暖vs库存高位-20260316

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - Last week, the soda ash futures price fluctuated and closed higher overall. The market was in a repeated game between the macro - sentiment and the marginal improvement of the fundamentals. In the short term, the futures price may be mainly volatile due to the game between inventory reduction and high - inventory pressure, as well as profit recovery and high supply [36]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Soda Ash Supply and Demand Situation 3.1.1 Production and Capacity Analysis - As of March 12, 2026, the weekly domestic soda ash production was 809,200 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2,200 tons or 0.27%. Among them, the light soda ash production was 380,900 tons, a week - on - week increase of 6,200 tons, and the heavy soda ash production was 428,300 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 4,000 tons [10]. - The comprehensive capacity utilization rate of soda ash was 87%, a week - on - week increase of 0.23%. Among them, the ammonia - soda capacity utilization rate was 90.45%, unchanged from the previous week; the co - production capacity utilization rate was 79.55%, a week - on - week increase of 3.23%. The overall capacity utilization rate of 16 enterprises with an annual production capacity of one million tons or more was 89%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.31% [12]. 3.1.2 Soda Ash Inventory Analysis - As of March 12, 2026, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1,931,700 tons, a week - on - week increase of 9,000 tons or 0.47%. Among them, the light soda ash inventory was 1,013,600 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2,400 tons, and the heavy soda ash inventory was 918,100 tons, a week - on - week increase of 11,400 tons. Compared with the previous Thursday, it decreased by 15,500 tons or 0.80%. Compared with the same period last year, it increased by 196,500 tons or 11.32% [15]. 3.1.3 Shipment Situation Analysis - As of March 12, 2026, the weekly shipment volume of Chinese soda ash enterprises was 822,500 tons, a week - on - week increase of 11.43%; the overall shipment rate of soda ash was 101.92%, a week - on - week increase of 8.60 percentage points [17]. 3.1.4 Profit Analysis - As of March 12, 2026, the theoretical profit (double - ton) of Chinese co - production soda ash was 166 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 6740%. The profit increased significantly because the raw material cost decreased while the soda ash price was firm and the by - product ammonium chloride price rose [20]. - As of March 12, 2026, the theoretical profit of Chinese ammonia - soda process soda ash was - 26.20 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 56.45 yuan/ton. The profit improved significantly due to the decrease in raw material cost and the increase in soda ash price [24]. 3.2 Downstream Industry Situation 3.2.1 Supply Side of the Float Glass Industry - As of March 12, 2026, the daily output of national float glass was 146,900 tons, a decrease of 10,800 tons compared with March 5. The weekly output of national float glass from March 6 - 12, 2026 was 1,033,300 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.62% and a year - on - year decrease of 6.47% [27]. 3.2.2 Float Glass Industry Inventory - As of March 12, 2026, the total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 75,849,000 weight boxes, a week - on - week decrease of 3,788,000 weight boxes or 4.76%, and a year - on - year increase of 7.96%. The inventory days were 33.9 days, a decrease of 1.4 days from the previous period [30]. 3.3 Comprehensive Analysis - Last week, the soda ash futures price first rose and then declined, closing higher overall. The market was in a repeated game between macro - sentiment and marginal improvement of fundamentals. The production of soda ash increased slightly, the operating rate remained high, and the enterprise inventory decreased slightly, indicating that downstream demand had recovered. The raw material cost decreased, driving the industry profit to recover significantly. However, the absolute inventory level was still at a high level in the same period, and the pattern of loose supply had not been fundamentally reversed. In the short term, the futures price may be mainly volatile [36]. 3.4 Operation Suggestions - Unilateral: Wait and see or try to go long with a light position after a pull - back. - Arbitrage: None. - Options: Consider selling out - of - the - money call options to collect premiums [37].