风险偏好降温，铜价震荡回落

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - Last week, copper prices fluctuated weakly. The main reasons were that the year-on-year growth rate of the US core PCE in January reached a two-year high, the Fed's inflation expectation decline within the year might be less than once, and the US dollar index rebounded. In addition, the conflict between the US and Iran continued to ferment, and commodities and risk assets other than oil and gas were under pressure to decline. Fundamentally, the Kennecott copper mine under Rio Tinto suddenly suspended operations due to a mine accident, the domestic refined copper production had little room for growth, the social inventory was slowly being depleted at a high level, the domestic trade spot turned to a premium after the month change, and the C structure of the near-month disk converged [2][7]. - Overall, the rebound of the US inflation expectation significantly reduced the Fed's interest rate cut expectation within the year, and Iran's tough stance further fermented the global energy crisis sentiment. The market returned to the pricing logic of "survival + security". Only the US dollar and US Treasury yields rebounded, and commodities and risk assets other than oil and gas were under pressure. Fundamentally, mine disturbances increased supply concerns, the domestic refined copper supply marginally shrank, the global inventory was high but faced structural mismatches, the domestic social inventory turned to slow depletion, and the terminal consumption recovery still needed time. It is expected that copper prices will continue to fluctuate at a high level in the short term, and geopolitical risks should be noted [2][10]. Summary by Directory Market Data - The prices of LME copper, COMEX copper, SHFE copper, and international copper all declined last week. The LME copper price dropped by 1.04% to $12,735.50 per ton, the COMEX copper price fell by 2.78% to 567.5 cents per pound, the SHFE copper price decreased by 0.73% to 100,310 yuan per ton, and the international copper price declined by 0.88% to 88,740 yuan per ton. The LME spot premium decreased by 128.93% to -$102.70 per ton, and the Shanghai spot premium increased to 85 yuan per ton [3]. - The total inventory increased by 2.44% to 1,426,910 tons last week. The LME inventory increased by 9.67% to 311,825 tons, the COMEX inventory decreased by 1.05% to 591,645 short tons, the SHFE inventory increased by 1.96% to 433,440 tons, and the Shanghai bonded area inventory increased by 5.26% to 90,000 tons [6]. Market Analysis and Outlook - The decline in copper prices last week was mainly due to the high inflation in the US and the continuous fermentation of the US-Iran conflict. Fundamentally, the suspension of the Kennecott copper mine affected the supply, and the domestic refined copper production had little room for growth. The global inventory continued to rise, and the domestic inventory was slowly being depleted. The terminal consumption showed a steady increase, but the traditional industries faced greater pressure [7][9]. - The US inflation data was high, which reduced the Fed's interest rate cut expectation within the year. The US-Iran conflict increased the market's concern about the global energy crisis, pushing up the prices of oil and US Treasury yields, and putting pressure on other commodities and risk assets. The domestic inflation data showed that the CPI increased, and the PPI decline narrowed [8]. Industry News - Rio Tinto's Kennecott copper mine in the US suspended operations due to a mine accident, which might lead to a further reduction in the global copper concentrate supply growth rate [11]. - Mongolia is demanding an early profit distribution and an increase in the revenue share of the Oyu Tolgoi copper mine jointly operated with Rio Tinto. The two sides have restarted negotiations on the commercial terms of the $18 billion project [12]. - Workers at Glencore's copper refinery in Queensland, Australia, plan to go on strike due to a failure to reach an agreement on salary and working conditions in nearly a year of negotiations [13]. Related Charts - The report provides multiple charts, including the price trends of Shanghai copper and LME copper, the inventory changes of LME, COMEX, SHFE, and Shanghai bonded area, the LME copper premium trend, the refined scrap copper price difference trend, etc., to visually show the market situation of copper [16][18][24].