铁矿周报：钢厂复产支撑铁矿震荡偏强-20260316

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The iron ore market is expected to continue its volatile and upward - trending pattern. The recent strength of iron ore is mainly supported by supply contraction, as overseas ore shipments have declined due to geopolitical conflicts and heavy rainfall, and rising oil prices have increased transportation costs, which in turn support the spot price. After the Two Sessions, steel mills will gradually resume production, iron - water output will rise, and port inventories are expected to decrease in the second quarter [1][6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Transaction Data - SHFE rebar closed at 3142 yuan/ton, up 54 yuan or 1.75% with a total trading volume of 5,540,334 lots and a total open interest of 2,530,631 lots. - SHFE hot - rolled coil closed at 3295 yuan/ton, up 65 yuan or 2.01% with a total trading volume of 2,241,851 lots and a total open interest of 1,243,723 lots. - DCE iron ore closed at 795.5 yuan/ton, up 23.5 yuan or 3.04% with a total trading volume of 1,140,049 lots and a total open interest of 480,735 lots. - DCE coking coal closed at 1178.0 yuan/ton, up 55.0 yuan or 4.90% with a total trading volume of 5,796,535 lots and a total open interest of 582,187 lots. - DCE coke closed at 1737.5 yuan/ton, up 42.0 yuan or 2.48% with a total trading volume of 139,141 lots and a total open interest of 41,920 lots [2] 3.2 Market Review - Last week, iron ore futures fluctuated and trended upward. After the Two Sessions, the policy met expectations, and the expectation of steel mills' resumption of production provided support. Coupled with the increase in shipping prices due to overseas geopolitical conflicts, multiple factors jointly pushed up the ore price. In the spot market, the price of PB powder at Rizhao Port was 797 yuan/ton, up 33 yuan/ton week - on - week, and the price of Super Special powder was 678 yuan/ton, up 29 yuan/ton week - on - week. The price difference between high - and low - grade PB powder and Super Special powder was 119 yuan/ton [4]. - On the demand side, last week, the iron - water output declined. During the Two Sessions, production restrictions on northern steel mills affected the demand for iron ore, but production will resume this week. The blast - furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills last week was 78.34%, an increase of 0.63 percentage points week - on - week and a decrease of 2.24 percentage points year - on - year. The blast - furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate was 82.92%, a decrease of 2.40 percentage points week - on - week and a decrease of 3.65 percentage points year - on - year. The steel mill profitability rate was 41.13%, an increase of 3.03 percentage points week - on - week and a decrease of 12.12 percentage points year - on - year. The daily average iron - water output was 221.2 tons, a decrease of 6.39 tons week - on - week and a decrease of 9.39 tons year - on - year [1][4]. - On the supply side, last week, overseas shipments decreased, and arrivals increased month - on - month. Due to the recent situation in the Strait of Hormuz, many iron - ore cargo ships originally destined for the Middle East have changed their routes and headed for China, and the overall supply is stable. The total global iron - ore shipments last week were 28.978 million tons, a decrease of 4.429 million tons week - on - week. The total shipments from Australia and Brazil were 23.421 million tons, a decrease of 3.485 million tons week - on - week. In terms of inventory, the inventory of imported iron ore at 47 national ports was 179.4732 million tons, an increase of 0.5249 million tons week - on - week, and the daily average port clearance volume was 3.3233 million tons, an increase of 0.0535 million tons [1][5]. 3.3 Industry News - Due to the recent situation in the Strait of Hormuz, many iron - ore cargo ships originally destined for the Middle East have changed their routes and headed for China, with four ship - rerouting incidents reported. - According to customs data, in the first two months, China's total value of goods trade imports and exports was 7.73 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 18.3%. Exports were 4.62 trillion yuan, an increase of 19.2%, and imports were 3.11 trillion yuan, an increase of 17.1%. - From January to February 2026, China's cumulative steel exports were 15.591 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 8.1%. Cumulative steel imports were 0.827 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 21.7%. Cumulative imports of iron ore and its concentrates were 210.023 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.0%. Cumulative imports of coal and lignite were 77.222 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.5%. - On March 11, local time, US Trade Representative Greer said that the US will launch a 301 investigation against 16 trading partners, including China, the EU, Mexico, Vietnam, India, and Japan. - Israeli Defense Forces spokesman Effi Devlin said that Israel's military operations against Iran will continue for at least three more weeks [11]