氧化铝周报：成本支撑，氧化铝短时震荡偏好-20260316

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Currently, the alumina supply side maintains stable production with limited supply pressure, and the consumption side has stable operating capacity, resulting in a relatively balanced situation [3][7]. - Due to the unexpected duration of the Middle - East conflict, the futures prices of caustic soda and coking coal have risen significantly, followed by the increase in spot prices. With an optimistic market sentiment, cost support and industrial chain effects may drive the alumina market to rise in the short term [3][7]. - In the medium - to - long term, the abundant ore supply and the pressure of new production capacity to be put into operation are expected to limit the upside potential of alumina [3][7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Transaction Data - From March 6th to March 13th, 2026, the alumina futures (active) rose from 2832 yuan/ton to 2956 yuan/ton, an increase of 124 yuan/ton; the domestic alumina spot price rose from 2673 yuan/ton to 2698 yuan/ton, an increase of 25 yuan/ton; the spot premium decreased from - 118 yuan/ton to - 132 yuan/ton, a decrease of 14 yuan/ton; the FOB price of Australian alumina decreased from 306.5 dollars/ton to 304 dollars/ton, a decrease of 2.5 dollars/ton; the import profit and loss decreased from 3.23 yuan/ton to - 27.93 yuan/ton, a decrease of 31.2 yuan/ton [4]. - The exchange warehouse inventory increased from 337172 tons to 373960 tons, an increase of 36788 tons, and the exchange factory warehouse inventory increased from 0 tons to 1500 tons, an increase of 1500 tons [4]. - The prices of domestic bauxite in Shanxi, Henan, Guangxi, and Guizhou remained unchanged, while the CIF price of Guinea bauxite increased from 61.5 dollars/ton to 64 dollars/ton, an increase of 2.5 dollars/ton [4]. Market Review - The main alumina futures contract rose 124 yuan/ton last week, closing at 2956 yuan/ton. The national weighted - average spot price on Friday was 2698 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan/ton from the previous week [5]. - For bauxite, domestic mines' resumption of production has limited output release, and the overall supply shortage has not been significantly alleviated. Overseas, due to increased transportation costs and uncertain Middle - East situation, there are few offers for imported ore in late March and early April, and sellers are reluctant to sell [5]. - On the supply side, alumina supply has slightly increased. The operating capacity of alumina has changed little recently, and some southern enterprises' roasting furnaces have resumed normal production after maintenance. As of March 12th, China's alumina installed capacity was 113.9 million tons, the operating capacity was 89.5 million tons, and the operating rate was 78.58% [5]. - On the consumption side, the production of the electrolytic aluminum industry has continued to increase slightly, with no significant reduction or resumption of production. A new production capacity of an enterprise in Inner Mongolia is still being put into operation, slightly increasing the demand for alumina [5]. - In terms of inventory, the alumina futures warrant inventory last Friday was 374,000 tons, an increase of 36,788 tons from the previous week, and the factory warehouse inventory was 1500 tons, an increase of 1500 tons [5]. Market Outlook - On the ore side, due to increased overseas transportation costs and uncertain Middle - East situation, there are few offers for imported ore in late March and early April, and sellers are reluctant to sell, leading to a slight increase in ore prices. The resumption of domestic mines is slow, and the improvement of the supply shortage is very limited [3][7]. - On the supply side, the recent operating capacity of alumina has remained stable at 89.5 million tons, and holders' willingness to raise prices has increased, leading to an increase in spot quotes [3][7]. - On the consumption side, the electrolytic aluminum capacity has slightly increased, mainly executing long - term contracts. The recognition of the rising alumina price is low, and the enthusiasm for spot procurement is low [3][7]. - On the cost side, due to the rising prices of caustic soda and energy, the cost of alumina has increased. The warrant inventory last week was 374,000 tons, an increase of 36,788 tons from the previous week, and the factory warehouse inventory was 1500 tons, an increase of 1500 tons [3][7]. Industry News - Canyon Resources' Minim Martap bauxite project in Cameroon is progressing smoothly. The open - pit mining equipment has been delivered, and mining is planned to start before the end of March. The first batch of bauxite is expected to be produced in the early second quarter of 2026, with a first - phase capacity of 1.2 million tons. The first batch of CRRC locomotives is expected to arrive at Douala Port in the middle and late second quarter of 2026 for ore railway transportation [8]. - China National Machinery Industry No.1 Construction Corporation won the bid for the 6 - million - ton alumina second - phase project of Gansu Jiatang Aluminum Co., Ltd., marking an important milestone in its strategic adjustment and laying a foundation for further exploration of the regional market [8]. - The Federation of Indian Mineral Industries (FIMI) pointed out that due to concerns about supply disruptions caused by the West Asian crisis, international aluminum prices have risen above $3400 per ton. Although this has brought short - term benefits to Indian primary aluminum producers, the rising input costs have also brought long - term challenges. The transportation interruption in the Strait of Hormuz has increased freight costs, affecting the import of calcined petroleum coke (CPC) and raising the production costs of domestic smelters [8]. Related Charts - The report provides charts on alumina futures price trends, alumina spot prices, alumina spot premiums, alumina month - to - first - continuous spread, domestic bauxite prices, imported bauxite CIF prices, caustic soda prices, thermal coal prices, alumina exchange inventory, and alumina cost - profit [9][11][14][16][18][20][23].