国泰君安期货商品研究晨报：农产品-20260316

Report Overview - The report is the "Guotai Junan Futures Commodity Research Morning Report - Agricultural Products" dated March 16, 2026, covering multiple agricultural product futures including palm oil, soybean oil, etc. [1] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Views - Palm oil: With frequent speculation themes, the oil is running strongly [2] - Soybean oil: Supported by US soybean costs, it will oscillate at a high level in the short term [2] - Soybean meal: The market sentiment is strong, and it may rebound and oscillate [2] - Soybean: The spot price in the producing area is stable, and the futures price is strong [2] - Corn: It will run in an oscillatory manner [2] - Sugar: Driven by the rise in crude oil, it will oscillate strongly [2] - Cotton: Attention should be paid to the external market trend [2] - Eggs: It will oscillate within a range [2] - Pigs: Inventory reduction and weight loss may start, and the spot price will be under pressure [2] - Peanuts: Attention should be paid to the macro - impact [2] 3. Summary by Commodity Palm Oil and Soybean Oil - Fundamentals: Palm oil's day - session closing price was 9,768 yuan/ton with a 0.87% increase, and the night - session closing price was 9,880 yuan/ton with a 1.15% increase. Soybean oil's day - session closing price was 8,690 yuan/ton with a 0.67% increase, and the night - session closing price was 8,722 yuan/ton with a 0.37% increase [5] - News: The Indonesian president has asked coal, crude palm oil (CPO) and its derivative producers to stop exports until domestic demand is met. The Indonesian economic minister said that the government may impose additional taxes on palm oil and other specific commodities. CONAB predicts that Brazil's soybean production in 2025/26 will reach 1.778467 billion tons, a 3.7% increase year - on - year [6][8] - Trend Intensity: Palm oil trend intensity is 2, soybean oil trend intensity is 1 [10] Soybean Meal and Soybean - Fundamentals: DCE soybean 2605's day - session closing price was 4,973 yuan/ton with a 2.39% increase, and the night - session closing price was 4,966 yuan/ton with a 0.69% increase. DCE soybean meal 2605's day - session closing price was 3,128 yuan/ton with a 1.76% increase, and the night - session closing price was 3,102 yuan/ton with a 0.96% decrease [11] - News: On March 13, CBOT soybean futures closed lower due to pre - weekend long - position profit - taking. The conflict between the US, Israel and Iran has affected the agricultural product market, and the price of crude oil is at a four - year high [13] - Trend Intensity: Both soybean meal and soybean trend intensities are +1 [13] Corn - Fundamentals: C2605's day - session closing price was 2,386 yuan/ton with a 0.50% decrease, and the night - session closing price was 2,385 yuan/ton with a 0.04% decrease. C2607's day - session closing price was 2,399 yuan/ton with a 0.33% decrease, and the night - session closing price was 2,395 yuan/ton with a 0.17% decrease [15] - News: The price of northern corn shipped to ports was stable, and the price of Guangdong Shekou corn increased by 20 yuan/ton [16] - Trend Intensity: Corn trend intensity is 0 [16] Sugar - Fundamentals: The raw sugar price was 14.37 cents/pound, a 0.01 decrease year - on - year. The mainstream spot price was 5,450 yuan/ton, a 10 yuan increase [17] - News: As of February 28, the sugar production in India in the 25/26 season increased by 12% year - on - year. CAOC predicts that the domestic sugar production in the 25/26 season will be 1.17 billion tons, and the consumption will be 1.57 billion tons [17][18] - Trend Intensity: Sugar trend intensity is 1 [19] Cotton - Fundamentals: CF2605's day - session closing price was 15,415 yuan/ton with a 0.84% decrease, and the night - session closing price was 15,450 yuan/ton with a 0.23% increase. ICE US cotton 5's closing price was 65.8 cents/pound with a 0.90% increase [21] - News: The domestic cotton spot trading was still sluggish, and the cotton yarn price was stable. The ICE cotton futures rose on Friday, affected by the expected increase in China's cotton imports [22] - Trend Intensity: Cotton trend intensity is 1 [25] Eggs - Fundamentals: Egg 2604's closing price was 3,275 yuan/500 kg with a 0.49% increase, and Egg 2605's closing price was 3,433 yuan/500 kg with a 0.55% decrease [27] - Trend Intensity: Egg trend intensity is 0 [28] Pigs - Fundamentals: The Henan spot price was 10,180 yuan/ton, the Sichuan spot price was 10,250 yuan/ton, and the Guangdong spot price was 10,860 yuan/ton. The futures prices of pig 2605, 2607, and 2609 were 11,150 yuan/ton, 12,345 yuan/ton, and 13,165 yuan/ton respectively [31] - Trend Intensity: Pig trend intensity is - 1 [32] Peanuts - Fundamentals: The price of Liaoning 308 general peanuts was 9,260 yuan/ton, and the price of Henan Baisha general peanuts was 7,500 yuan/ton. PK604's closing price was 8,084 yuan/ton with a 0.82% increase, and PK605's closing price was 8,186 yuan/ton with a 1.14% increase [34] - News: In the spot market, the price of peanuts in some areas was stable, and the price of Xingcheng small Japanese peanuts was strong [35] - Trend Intensity: Peanut trend intensity is 0 [36]