电解铝期货品种周报-20260316

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The medium - term trend of aluminum prices is expected to be oscillating and strengthening, but in the near term, it may experience wide - range oscillations. The main logic of aluminum prices has shifted from the game between the lack of supply elasticity and the long - term demand expectations of artificial intelligence and new energy to the game between geopolitical disturbances and weak real - world demand. Considering factors such as relatively heavy net long positions of overseas funds, weak growth of US technology stocks, and a significant rebound in US Treasury yields, market oscillations may intensify in the near term [4][10]. - The Shanghai Aluminum is expected to continue its high - level oscillating and strengthening pattern, with intensified multi - empty games. The core driving forces are the expectation of tightened overseas supply due to Middle - East geopolitical risks, combined with the depletion of LME inventories and low available inventories, providing support. However, factors such as inventory accumulation pressure, a strong US dollar, and profit - taking sentiment exert downward pressure [10]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Overall View - Aluminum Bauxite Market: In the import ore market, new ore production capacity in Guinea is steadily shipping, with an expected increase in supply. Australia's supply has declined due to the rainy season, but Guinea's supply increase can cover the gap, resulting in an overall oversupply of imported ore. However, the prolonged conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran has strongly supported international shipping prices, and the cost of imported bauxite may stop falling [8]. - Alumina Market: As of March 13, the domestic alumina production capacity was about 11,255 million tons, with an operating capacity of about 9,290 million tons (9,160 million tons before the Spring Festival), and an operating rate of 82.72%, which is at a relatively high level in recent years. In the second quarter, the overall supply of alumina at home and abroad is expected to remain loose. Domestic supply is supported by new production capacity and sufficient raw materials, and overseas supply is under continuous pressure due to the release of new production capacity and adjustments by some enterprises. Although some enterprises are undergoing maintenance or production cuts, the overall supply increase is greater than the demand increase, and the supply - demand contradiction is mainly characterized by oversupply [8]. - Electrolytic Aluminum Production: According to Steel Union data, in February, the domestic built - in production capacity of electrolytic aluminum was 4,618.65 million tons, and the operating capacity was 4,483.93 million tons (4,477.93 million tons last month), approaching the 4,500 - million - ton production capacity limit. In 2026, the domestic supply is under rigid constraints. However, in the second and third quarters of 2026, about 1 - 1.2 billion tons of production capacity from Chinese - funded projects in Indonesia, India and other places (such as Liqin Resources and Huaqing Aluminum) may be put into production. If they are put into production on schedule, it may exert some pressure on global aluminum prices and exports. Currently, the situation in the Middle East remains tense, and there is great uncertainty in overseas electrolytic aluminum supply. Overall, the market expects that the global aluminum supply elasticity will be very small in 2026 [8]. - Imports and Exports: Currently, the theoretical loss of electrolytic aluminum imports is about 4,300 yuan/ton, compared with about 3,500 yuan/ton last week, which is at a low level in recent years. According to customs data, from December 2025 to the end of February 2026, the export volume of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products in China has dropped significantly [8]. - Inventory: As of March 12, the social inventory of aluminum was about 1.31 million tons, an increase of about 3% compared with last week and about 51% higher than the same period last year. The weekly outbound volume has slightly rebounded but remains at a low level in recent years. Historically, the inflection point of social inventory usually occurs between mid - March and late March. The inventory of aluminum rods is 372,000 tons, a decrease of about 4% compared with last week and about 31% higher than the same period last year, which is at a high level in the past 10 years. The LME aluminum inventory has continued to decline slightly by about 3%, about 12% lower than the same period last year, and is at a low level in recent years. The MOZAL plant in Mozambique (with an annual production capacity of 580,000 tons) shut down in mid - March, and the release of new production capacity in Indonesia has been delayed. The global visible inventory is only sufficient for about 5.6 days of consumption (a historical low), making the market highly sensitive [8][14]. - Profit: The average full - cost of the Chinese alumina industry in the past month was about 2,650 yuan/ton, with a spot theoretical profit of about 40 yuan/ton and a theoretical profit of about 300 yuan/ton for the futures main - contract month. The current average production cost of domestic electrolytic aluminum is about 16,700 yuan/ton, with a theoretical profit of about 8,300 yuan/ton, compared with 7,700 yuan/ton last week. The profit is at a historical high [10]. Important Industry Link Price Changes - The prices of various aluminum - related products have shown different degrees of change. For example, the price of bauxite SI2 - 3% from Guinea increased from 61 to 62 US dollars/dry ton, with a week - on - week increase of 1.64%. The price of alumina in Henan increased from 2,665 to 2,705 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 1.50%. The price of the Shanghai Aluminum main - contract closing price increased from 24,715 to 24,960 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 0.99% [11]. Important Industry Link Inventory Changes - The inventory of bauxite at ports has been gradually increasing since February and is currently at a high level in recent years. The alumina inventory has continued to accumulate and is at a high level in the past 5 years. The inventory of electrolytic aluminum plants has changed little, while the inventory of alumina plants has significantly decreased and the port inventory has significantly increased [13][14]. Downstream Start - up Overview - The weekly start - up rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises has increased by 2.4 percentage points to 61.9%, continuing the post - holiday recovery trend. All sectors have increased, and the industry has generally entered the normal production rhythm. The demand for UHV and overhead lines is strong, and enterprise production schedules have covered March. The aluminum foil market has remained stable, with both the recovery of traditional peak - season demand and short - term support from battery foils. The increase in the start - up rate of aluminum plates has been hindered due to a year - on - year decline in automobile plate orders and the suspension of exports to the Middle East. The start - up rate of aluminum profiles has increased significantly, mainly due to the return of employees and good acceptance of engineering orders, and there is also support from photovoltaic and automobile profiles. The primary aluminum alloy market is highly wait - and - see, and the terminal orders of recycled aluminum have not increased significantly [15]. Market Capital Situation - LME Aluminum: The net long positions of funds have slightly rebounded, and both the long and short camps have generally increased their positions since January. Currently, the long side is dominant, but due to the heavy floating - profit positions of the long side, high - level repeated market conditions are likely to occur [30]. - SHFE Electrolytic Aluminum: This week, the long - position camp of major institutions has remained stable, while the short - position camp has slightly increased its positions. Most speculative - based institutions hold net short positions and wait and see. The funds from mid - and downstream enterprises are still in a state of multi - empty stalemate. Overall, the main funds do not seem to highly recognize a further short - term increase [33]. Price Structure - Futures - Spot Structure: The current Shanghai Aluminum futures show a contango structure with higher prices in the distant future and lower prices in the near term. The spot demand is average, and macro - level guidance is stronger [21]. - Spread Structure: The spread between aluminum ingots and ADC12 this week is about - 2,390 yuan/ton, compared with - 2,480 yuan/ton before the Spring Festival. Currently, the spread between primary aluminum and alloys is at a relatively low level in recent years, and the current spread has a neutral - to - positive impact on electrolytic aluminum [26][28]. Trading Strategies - Medium - term Strategy: Continue to hold medium - term long positions. New long positions are advised to wait and see [7]. - Spot Enterprises Hedging Strategy: Hold an appropriate amount of spot inventory [7].