华联期货宏观周报：高位宽幅震荡-20260316

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Last week, Shanghai tin prices fluctuated significantly at high levels. On March 13, 2026, the spot price of Mysteel's comprehensive 1 tin was 387,000 yuan/ton, with large price and basis fluctuations [16]. - In terms of supply, refined tin production in February was 10,613 tons, showing a seasonal decrease. Domestic tin ore production in December was 5,300 tons, with a slight year - on - year decrease. Myanmar is promoting the resumption of tin mining production, and Indonesia's exports continued to decline in January [16]. - Regarding demand, it is expected that the emerging sectors will maintain demand resilience in January - February, while the traditional sectors will see some adjustments. The government's moderately loose policy and support for emerging industries will boost tin demand, but the Middle East conflict may suppress demand. In February, China's automobile sales were 1.805 million, a year - on - year decrease of 15.2%, and new energy vehicle sales were 765,000, a year - on - year decrease of 14.2% [16]. - For cost and profit, the tightness of the ore end has been alleviated, and processing fees have continued to rebound from a low level [16]. - In terms of inventory, LME, SHFE inventories increased slightly week - on - week, and social inventory decreased slightly week - on - week [16]. - The strategy is to trade with a light position due to large market sentiment fluctuations. Consider lightly buying call or put options, with support at 350,000 - 360,000 yuan/ton and resistance at 440,000 - 450,000 yuan/ton. Pay attention to market sentiment, disturbances from Myanmar and Congo mines, and the progress of the Middle East situation [16]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - ly View and Strategy - Week - ly View: High - level wide - range fluctuations in Shanghai tin prices, with complex supply and demand factors. Supply is affected by production changes and overseas resumption, demand is influenced by emerging and traditional sectors, and cost and inventory also show certain trends [16]. - Strategy: Light - position trading, buying call or put options, with reference support and resistance levels, and focus on key influencing factors [16]. 3.2 Industrial Chain Structure No detailed content provided for in - depth summary. 3.3 Futures and Spot Market No detailed analysis content provided, only mentions the presentation of SHFE and LME tin futures and spot prices and basis [23]. 3.4 Inventory - As of March 13, 2026, SHFE inventory was 12,273 tons, increasing week - on - week; as of March 11, 2026, LME total inventory was 8,630 tons, increasing week - on - week; as of March 6, 2026, refined tin social inventory was 13,250 tons, decreasing slightly week - on - week [35][39]. 3.5 Cost and Profit As of March 13, 2026, the processing fee for Yunnan concentrate was 16,000 yuan/ton, and that for Guangxi concentrate was 12,000 yuan/ton, with processing fees continuing to rebound from a low level [46]. 3.6 Supply - In February 2026, refined tin production was 10,613 tons, with a seasonal decrease; domestic tin ore production in December was 5,362.43 tons, with a slight month - on - month increase. In February 2026, the capacity utilization rate of tin enterprises was about 45.57%, dropping significantly month - on - month due to holiday factors [54][59]. 3.7 Demand - In December 2025, China's automobile production was 3.4115 million, a year - on - year decrease of 2.8%; electronic computer production was 31.3956 million, a year - on - year decrease of 12.5%. In February 2026, China's PVC production was 1.9851 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 5.3%. In December 2025, mobile electronic communication production was 146.5594 million, a year - on - year decrease of 9.5%. In December 2025, air - conditioner production was 21.6289 million, a year - on - year decrease of 9.6%; refrigerator production was 10.0114 million, a year - on - year increase of 5%. In December 2025, washing machine production was 11.975 million, a year - on - year decrease of 4.4%; color TV production was 19.5206 million, a year - on - year decrease of 1.2%. In December 2025, solar cell production was 74.44 million kilowatts, a year - on - year decrease of 9.7% and a month - on - month increase; integrated circuit production was 48.073455 billion pieces, a year - on - year increase of 12.9% [65][72][76][81][85]. 3.8 Import and Export In December 2025, China imported 17,600 tons of tin ore, with a significant month - on - month increase; imported 1,547.7 tons of tin ingots; and exported 2,763 tons of refined tin and alloys [91]. 3.9 Supply - Demand Table - From 2018 to 2026E, China's tin production shows a certain upward trend, while overseas production fluctuates. Global supply and demand are in a state of imbalance, with a supply shortage in most years [94].