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1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no mention of the industry investment rating in the provided report. 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report - This week (March 9 - March 13), credit bond yields declined, but the repair amplitude was smaller than that of interest - rate bonds, and credit spreads widened passively. The February inflation and January - February import and export data released this week disturbed market expectations. Due to the rebound in February CPI and January - February import and export data, market concerns about inflation pressure increased, and bond market sentiment weakened temporarily. Meanwhile, the overall capital environment was stable, the fluctuation of money market interest rates was limited, which provided a certain buffer for the bond market. The equity market is still in a volatile range, and the overall risk preference has not changed much, so its impact on the bond market is relatively limited [2][11]. - Currently, the yield curve forms a relatively obvious convex point around the 4 - year term. Institutions with relatively stable liability ends can pay attention to the riding value of 4 - year bonds. In the scenario where the yield curve rises by 20BP, 4 - year AA - rated medium - short notes, 4 - year AA and AA(2) - rated urban investment bonds, and 4 - year AAA - and AA + - rated bank perpetual bonds are expected to maintain positive returns or only have small drawdowns during the holding period, with relatively strong anti - volatility ability. For 7 - year urban investment bonds, caution should be exercised, and for 7 - year secondary perpetual bonds, allocation - type funds can choose the opportunity to layout after market adjustments [13][14]. - The issuance of secondary capital bonds and perpetual bonds has obvious seasonal characteristics. Although there is still a high maturity and redemption scale of secondary perpetual bonds this year, and the renewal demand still exists, in the context of the continuous expansion of capital replenishment channels, commercial banks' dependence on secondary perpetual bonds has decreased, and the overall future supply scale may decline [17][18]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1. Focus on Convex Point Riding, and the Supply of Secondary Perpetual Bonds May Decline - Market situation: This week, credit bond yields declined, but the repair amplitude was smaller than that of interest - rate bonds, and credit spreads widened passively. The February inflation and January - February import and export data disturbed market expectations, and bond market sentiment weakened temporarily. The equity market was in a volatile range, and its impact on the bond market was relatively limited [2][11]. - Investment strategy: The current yield curve forms a convex point around the 4 - year term. In the case of a 3 - month holding period and the curve shape remaining unchanged, the holding - period returns of 4 - year bonds are generally higher than those of 5 - year bonds of the same rating. Institutions with relatively stable liability ends can pay attention to their riding value. In the scenario where the yield curve rises by 20BP, 4 - year AA - rated medium - short notes, 4 - year AA and AA(2) - rated urban investment bonds, and 4 - year AAA - and AA + - rated bank perpetual bonds have relatively strong anti - volatility ability. For 7 - year urban investment bonds, caution should be exercised, and for 7 - year secondary perpetual bonds, allocation - type funds can choose the opportunity to layout after market adjustments [13][14]. - Supply situation: The issuance of secondary capital bonds and perpetual bonds has obvious seasonal characteristics. This year, secondary perpetual bonds are still in a peak maturity stage, with an expected annual maturity and redemption scale of about 1.18 trillion yuan, and banks still have a certain renewal demand. However, in the long - term, the net financing scale of secondary perpetual bonds has been declining in recent years. With the diversification of bank capital replenishment channels, the dependence of commercial banks on secondary perpetual bonds has decreased, and the future supply scale may decline [17][18]. 3.2. Review of the Quantity and Price of Inter - bank Liquidity - This week (March 9 - March 13), the volume of the inter - bank pledged repurchase market decreased and the price increased. The median daily trading volume of inter - bank pledged repurchase was 8.51 trillion yuan, a decrease of 260.2 billion yuan from last week, and the trading volume was in the top 2.9% of the range since 2020. The median R001 was 1.39%, an increase of 4bp from last week, and the repurchase interest rate was in the bottom 21% of the range since 2020. The median spread between R001 and DR001 was 6.7bp, a decrease of 0.6bp from last week; the median spread between GC001 and R001 was 11.0bp, an increase of 20.3bp from last week, and the exchange financing cost was higher than that of the inter - bank [38][40]. - In terms of interest rate swaps, the 1 - year FR007 IRS interest rate increased this week. The median 1 - year FR007 IRS was 1.50%, an increase of 2.1bp from last week, and the interest rate was in the bottom 5% of the range since 2020. The median 1 - year SHIBOR 3 - month IRS was 1.56%, and the interest rate was in the bottom 4% of the range since 2020 [43]. 3.3. Review of the Inter - bank Certificate of Deposit Market - On March 13, SHIBOR overnight, 7 - day, 1 - month, 3 - month, 6 - month, 9 - month, and 1 - year quotes were 1.32%, 1.46%, 1.53%, 1.54%, 1.56%, 1.57%, and 1.58% respectively. Compared with March 6, the overnight and above - term quotes changed by 0bp, 5bp, - 1bp, - 1bp, - 1bp, - 1bp, - 1bp respectively. The yields to maturity of 1 - month, 3 - month, 6 - month, 9 - month, and 1 - year inter - bank certificates of deposit of AAA - rated commercial banks were 1.5%, 1.5%, 1.51%, 1.52%, 1.53% respectively. Compared with March 6, the 1 - month and above - term yields changed by 1bp, 0bp, - 1bp, - 1bp, - 2bp respectively [44]. - This week, the total primary issuance volume of inter - bank certificates of deposit was 842.5 billion yuan (excluding those whose actual raised amounts have not been disclosed as of March 13), an increase of 125.2 billion yuan from last week. In terms of issuance terms, the proportions of 6 - month and 9 - month terms increased, while the proportions of 1 - month, 3 - month, and 1 - year terms decreased [48]. - On March 13, the 1 - year FR007 IRS interest rate was 1.50%, an increase of 3.11bp from last week. The yield of 1 - year AAA - rated inter - bank certificates of deposit decreased by 1.75bp from last week, and the spread between the two was 3bp, a narrowing of 5bp from last week [50]. 3.4. Credit Bond Issuance Situation 3.4.1. Issuance Volume and Net Financing - This week (March 9 - March 13), the supply of credit bonds increased both month - on - month and year - on - year. The issuance of credit bonds was 350.333 billion yuan, a month - on - month increase of 18.21% and an increase of 96.211 billion yuan compared with the same period last year. The net financing of credit bonds decreased by 36.707 billion yuan month - on - month and increased by 61.262 billion yuan year - on - year. In terms of types, the net financing of urban investment bonds, industrial bonds, and financial bonds decreased by 43.783 billion yuan, 21.115 billion yuan, and increased by 28.190 billion yuan respectively month - on - month [55]. 3.4.2. Issuance Cost - The average issuance interest rate of credit bonds decreased this week. The average issuance interest rate of credit bonds was 2.81%, a decrease of 6bp from last week. In terms of types, the average issuance interest rates of industrial bonds, urban investment bonds, and financial bonds decreased by 13bp, 6bp, and increased by 2bp respectively month - on - month; in terms of ratings, the average issuance interest rates of AA, AA +, and AAA decreased by 16bp, 2bp, and 11bp respectively month - on - month [66]. 3.4.3. Issuance Term - The average issuance term of credit bonds increased this week. The average issuance term of credit bonds was 2.97 years, an increase of 0.02 years from last week. In terms of types, the issuance terms of industrial bonds, urban investment bonds, and financial bonds increased by 0.29 years, decreased by 0.46 years, and increased by 0.24 years respectively month - on - month [68]. 3.4.4. Cancellation of Issuance - This week, the number of cancelled credit bond issuances was the same as last week, and the scale decreased. A total of 12 credit bonds were cancelled for issuance, the same as last week, and the total cancelled issuance scale was 7.5 billion yuan, a decrease of 0.46 billion yuan from last week [69]. 3.5. Credit Bond Transaction and Valuation Situation 3.5.1. Transaction Volume - This week (March 9 - March 13), the total transaction volume of credit bonds was 1,435 billion yuan, a decrease of 1.3 billion yuan from last week. In terms of categories, commercial bank bonds and non - bank financial bonds in financial bonds traded 455.4 billion yuan and 90 billion yuan respectively. Medium - term notes, short - term financing bills, directional instruments, enterprise bonds, and corporate bonds traded 333 billion yuan, 122.2 billion yuan, 55.4 billion yuan, 18.4 billion yuan, and 360.8 billion yuan respectively. Compared with last week, the trading volumes of various varieties showed mixed trends. The trading volume of urban investment bonds decreased the most, by 15.8 billion yuan. The trading volume of industrial bonds decreased by 10.3 billion yuan, while the trading volumes of bank perpetual bonds and bank secondary capital bonds increased by 7.6 billion yuan and 7.4 billion yuan respectively; the trading volumes of securities firm sub - bonds and insurance sub - bonds decreased slightly by 1.1 billion yuan and 0.3 billion yuan respectively [74]. - In terms of remaining terms, the transaction term structure of urban investment bonds shifted to the medium - long term, the proportion of transactions within 1 year decreased by 4.58pct, while the proportions of 1 - 2 years, 2 - 3 years, 3 - 5 years, and over 5 years increased by 0.83pct, 2.69pct, 0.18pct, and 0.88pct respectively; the term structure of industrial bonds concentrated on 1 - 3 years, the proportion within 1 year decreased by 1.10pct, the proportion of 1 - 2 years increased by 2.93pct, the proportion of 2 - 3 years increased by 0.13pct, the proportion of 3 - 5 years decreased by 1.44pct, and the proportion of over 5 years decreased by 0.51pct; the term structure of bank secondary capital bonds was generally stable, the proportion within 1 year increased by 0.04pct, the proportion of 1 - 2 years decreased by 0.15pct, and the proportion of over 5 years increased by 0.11pct; the term of bank perpetual bonds shifted to the short - end, the proportion within 1 year increased by 3.05pct, the proportion of 1 - 2 years increased by 0.49pct, the proportion of 2 - 3 years increased by 1.72pct, and the proportion of 3 - 5 years decreased by 5.25pct; the term structure of securities firm sub - bonds concentrated on 3 - 5 years, the proportion within 1 year increased by 1.59pct, the proportion of 1 - 2 years decreased by 5.03pct, the proportion of 2 - 3 years decreased by 9.28pct, and the proportion of 3 - 5 years increased by 12.72pct; the term of insurance sub - bonds concentrated on the short - term, the proportion within 1 year increased by 12.94pct, and the proportion of over 5 years decreased by 12.94pct [75]. - In terms of implied ratings, the rating structure of urban investment bonds concentrated on lower ratings, AAA decreased by 0.90pct, AAA - decreased by 0.01pct, AA + remained unchanged (0.00pct), AA increased by 0.14pct, AA(2) decreased by 0.06pct, and AA - increased by 0.85pct; the rating structure of industrial bonds showed differentiation, AAA increased by 1.16pct, AAA - increased by 0.34pct, AA + decreased by 2.02pct, AA increased by 1.13pct, AA(2) decreased by 0.12pct, and AA - increased by 0.12pct; the ratings of bank secondary capital bonds were differentiated, AAA - increased by 4.78pct, AA + decreased by 4.39pct, AA decreased by 0.42pct, and AA - increased by 0.06pct; the ratings of bank perpetual bonds tilted towards AAA -, the proportion of AAA remained unchanged (0.00pct), AAA - increased by 9.07pct, AA + decreased by 7.99pct, AA decreased by 2.40pct, and AA - increased by 1.10pct; the ratings of securities firm sub - bonds concentrated on AA +, AAA - decreased by 8.36pct, AA + increased by 11.03pct, AA decreased by 2.88pct, and AA - increased by 0.14pct; the proportions of various ratings of insurance sub - bonds showed differentiation, AA + increased by 3.55pct, AA increased by 11.64pct, and AA - decreased by 13.17pct [76]. 3.5.2. Spread Tracking - The yields of credit bonds showed differentiation at various levels and terms. This week, except for the yields of 5 - year bonds at all levels, 3 - year and 4 - year AAA - rated bonds, which generally increased, the others generally decreased. Among them, the yields of 1 - year bonds at all levels decreased slightly by 1.73BP. The yield of 5 - year AA - rated bonds decreased the most, by 2.15BP. The current yield percentile levels of all levels are relatively low, the percentiles of the medium - short end are generally lower than those of the long end, the 1 - year AA is at an extremely low percentile of 0.3% since 2025, the 4 - year AA yield percentile is at 24.4%, and the 5 - year AAA is at a percentile of 22.0%. - The credit spreads of 1 - year bonds at all levels, 4 - year AA + and AA - rated bonds narrowed, while the others widened. Among them, the spread of 4 - year AA - rated bonds narrowed the most, by 1.73BP, the narrowing amplitude of 1 - year bonds at all levels was 0.09BP, and the spread of 3 - year AAA - rated bonds widened by 2.48BP. In terms of spread percentiles, the spreads of all levels are generally in a relatively low range, among which the spread percentiles of 1 - year bonds at all levels are relatively low, all between 0.3% - 0.6% [79]. - The yields of urban investment bonds showed differentiation at various levels and terms. The 1 - year yields generally decreased, while the 2 - year, 4 - year, and 5 - year yields generally increased. Among them, the yields of 1 - year bonds at all levels decreased significantly, with AAA decreasing by 1.59BP, and AA + and AA decreasing by 1.58BP. The yields of 5 - year bonds at all levels increased synchronously, with AAA increasing by 0.90BP, AA + increasing by 1.60BP, and AA increasing by 0.6BP. This week, except for the yields of 2 - year, 3 - year AA, 4 - year, and 5 - year bonds at all levels, which increased, the yields of 1 - year bonds at all levels, 3 - year AAA, and 3 - year AA + at all levels decreased, and the short - end decline was relatively significant. The current yield percentile levels of all levels are relatively low, the percentiles of the medium - short term are generally lower than those of the long term, the 1 - year bonds at all levels are at an extremely low percentile of 0.3% since 2025