铜：国内库存减少，限制价格回落

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The reduction of domestic copper inventories restricts the decline of copper prices [1] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Fundamental Tracking - Futures Price and Volume: The closing price of the Shanghai Copper main contract was 100,310 with a daily decline of 0.69%, and the night - session closing price was 99,730 with a decline of 0.58%. The closing price of the LME Copper 3M electronic disk was 12,736 with a decline of 1.64%. The trading volume of the Shanghai Copper Index was 183,195, a decrease of 16,426 from the previous day, and the position was 579,456, a decrease of 1,832. The trading volume of the LME Copper 3M electronic disk was 22,638, an increase of 5,861, and the position was 307,000, an increase of 3,144 [1] - Inventory: The inventory of Shanghai Copper was 315,063, a decrease of 11,264, and the inventory of LME Copper was 311,825, a decrease of 525. The cancellation warrant ratio of LME Copper was 13.83%, an increase of 0.29% [1] - Price Spreads: The LME copper premium/discount was - 102.7, a decrease of 0.59 from the previous day. The bonded - area warehouse receipt premium was 45, an increase of 1; the bonded - area bill of lading premium was 44, an increase of 1. The price of Shanghai 1 bright copper was 90,850, unchanged from the previous day. The spot - to - near - month futures spread was 85, unchanged; the spread between the near - month contract and the first - continuous contract was - 310, a decrease of 40; the cost of the inter - period arbitrage of buying the near - month and selling the first - continuous contract was 272. The spread between Shanghai copper spot and LME cash was 34, a decrease of 58; the spread between the Shanghai Copper continuous - three contract and LME 3M was 141, unchanged. The spread between Shanghai copper spot and Shanghai 1 recycled copper was 475, a decrease of 120; the profit and loss of recycled copper imports was 831, a decrease of 151 [1] 2. Macro and Industry News - Macro News: The US is reported to send marines and warships to the Middle East. Trump claims to launch "severe air strikes" on Iran next week and announced an air strike on Iran's oil export hub, Kharg Island. He also encouraged oil tankers to pass through the Strait of Hormuz. Weak US GDP and stagnant PCE data indicate that the US economic growth momentum has weakened before the Middle East conflict [1] - Industry News: Mongolia is seeking to renegotiate the "unfair" business terms of the Oyu Tolgoi copper mine worth $18 billion under Rio Tinto. Zambia's mining minister said the country is actively attracting global investors, aiming to more than triple copper production to 3 million tons by 2031. Rio Tinto suspended the operation of its Kennecott copper mine in Utah, USA, after a worker died on March 12 [1][3] 3. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of copper is 0, indicating a neutral stance, with the range of trend intensity being integers in the [-2, 2] interval [3]