Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The current fundamentals of the steel sector are moderately weak, with the short - term core contradiction focused on inventory digestion and demand verification. Before the real demand in the peak season is fully confirmed, prices are unlikely to show a trending market and will probably maintain a range - bound, slightly weak operation. Attention should be paid to the rhythm of peak - season demand and raw material price trends [2] - The overseas supply of iron ore fluctuates at a high level with a marginal decline. Affected by negotiation issues and overseas geopolitical conflicts, ore prices will fluctuate widely. Attention should be paid to subsequent negotiation progress and geopolitical developments [5] - Due to the ongoing US - Iran conflict, the overall sentiment in the commodity market is significantly bullish. It may not be suitable to operate in the short - term short direction. It is advisable to look for short - term rebound opportunities in undervalued and highly elastic varieties [9] - The fundamentals of industrial silicon show a weak supply - demand pattern, and it is expected to fluctuate under cost support. The fundamentals of polysilicon are weak, and prices are under pressure, with a short - term expectation of fluctuating under pressure [18][20] - It is expected that the float glass market will maintain a wide - range fluctuation pattern in the short term, and the soda ash market will continue a moderately strong fluctuation trend. Attention should be paid to the release rhythm of actual demand during the "Golden March and Silver April" and inventory changes in major production areas [23][25] Summary by Categories Steel Market Information - The afternoon closing price of the rebar main contract was 3142 yuan/ton, up 22 yuan/ton (0.705%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts on the day were 35,551 tons, a net increase of 9148 tons. The position volume of the main contract was 1.6268 million lots, a net decrease of 49,467 lots. The aggregated price of rebar in Tianjin was 3180 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton, and in Shanghai was 3250 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton [1] - The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3295 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton (0.610%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts on the day were 474,583 tons, with no change. The position volume of the main contract was 1.1982 million lots, a net decrease of 45,497 lots. The aggregated price of hot - rolled coils in Lecong was 3280 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton, and in Shanghai was 3280 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton [1] Strategy - This week, the demand for hot - rolled coils has significantly recovered, production has slightly declined due to maintenance, and the inventory accumulation rate has slowed down. For rebar, as the operating rate gradually recovers, both supply and demand have increased, and the inventory growth rate has slowed down. Overall, the fundamentals of steel are moderately weak [2] Iron Ore Market Information - On Friday, the main iron ore contract (I2605) closed at 811.50 yuan/ton, with a change of + 2.01% (+ 16.00). The position changed by - 9239 lots to 471,500 lots. The weighted position volume of iron ore was 887,700 lots. The spot price of PB fines at Qingdao Port was 798 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 36.39 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 4.29% [4] Strategy - In terms of supply, the overseas ore shipments in the latest period decreased month - on - month. The shipments from Australia and Brazil both declined, and those from non - mainstream countries also decreased. The near - term arrivals stopped falling and rebounded. In terms of demand, the daily average hot metal output in the latest period decreased by 63,900 tons to 2.212 million tons. Blast furnace maintenance was mainly affected by environmental protection restrictions, concentrated in Hebei. The resumption of blast furnaces is expected to be gradually realized in the next period. The profitability rate of steel mills increased month - on - month. Port inventories increased slightly and remained at a high level. Overall, the overseas supply of iron ore fluctuates at a high level with a marginal decline, and the ore price will fluctuate widely [5] Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon Market Information - On March 13, the manganese silicon main contract (SM605) rose 0.23% intraday, closing at 6176 yuan/ton. The spot price of 6517 manganese silicon in Tianjin was 5950 yuan/ton, equivalent to 6140 on the futures market, with a discount of 36 yuan/ton. The ferrosilicon main contract (SF605) fell 0.57%, closing at 5888 yuan/ton. The spot price of 72 ferrosilicon in Tianjin was 6100 yuan/ton, with a premium of 212 yuan/ton [7] - Last week, the manganese silicon futures price first rose sharply and then quickly fell, followed by a fluctuating upward trend, with a weekly increase of 48 yuan/ton or + 0.78%. The ferrosilicon futures price also rose quickly at the beginning of the week and then fell, followed by a moderately strong fluctuation, with a weekly increase of 32 yuan/ton or + 0.54% [8] Strategy - The overall sentiment in the commodity market is bullish. It may not be suitable to operate in the short - term short direction. The supply - demand pattern of manganese silicon is still not ideal, while that of ferrosilicon is good. The future market trends of the two will be affected by the overall market sentiment and cost and supply factors [9][10] Coking Coal and Coke Market Information - On March 13, the coking coal main contract (JM2605) rose 2.17% intraday, closing at 1178.0 yuan/ton. The coke main contract (J2605) rose 0.61%, closing at 1737.5 yuan/ton [12] - Last week, the coking coal futures price fluctuated upward, with a weekly increase of 60.5 yuan/ton or + 5.28%. The coke price also showed a fluctuating upward trend, with a weekly increase of 47.5 yuan/ton or + 2.79% [13] Strategy - Due to the ongoing US - Iran conflict, the overall sentiment in the commodity market is bullish. The price of coking coal is affected by the energy sentiment premium, and coke follows the cost - side coking coal price. In the short term, the inventory structure will restrict the demand for both, but attention should be paid to the possible upward price impulses. In the long term, the coking coal price is expected to rise from June to October [15] Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Market Information - On Friday, the industrial silicon futures main contract (SI2605) closed at 8675 yuan/ton, with a change of + 0.35% (+ 30). The weighted contract position changed by - 10,479 lots to 342,247 lots [17] - On Friday, the polysilicon futures main contract (PS2605) closed at 42,040 yuan/ton, with a change of - 1.68% (- 720). The weighted contract position changed by + 891 lots to 55,056 lots [19] Strategy - The supply - demand pattern of industrial silicon is weak, and it is expected to fluctuate under cost support. The fundamentals of polysilicon are weak, with inventory pressure increasing, and it is expected to fluctuate under pressure in the short term [18][20] Glass and Soda Ash Market Information - On Friday afternoon, the glass main contract closed at 1113 yuan/ton, up 0.09% (+ 1). The inventory of float glass sample enterprises in the week of March 12 was 75.849 million cases, a net decrease of 3.788 million cases (- 4.76%) [22] - On Friday afternoon, the soda ash main contract closed at 1256 yuan/ton, up 0.08% (+ 1). The inventory of soda ash sample enterprises in the week of March 12 was 1.9317 million tons, a net decrease of 15,500 tons (- 4.76%) [24] Strategy - The glass market has cost - side support, and the demand has slightly recovered. It is expected to maintain a wide - range fluctuation pattern in the short term. The soda ash market is affected by rising oil and coal prices, and supply is sufficient while demand is rigid. It is expected to continue a moderately strong fluctuation trend in the short term [23][25]
黑色建材日报 2026-03-16-20260316
Wu Kuang Qi Huo·2026-03-16 02:31