宏观偏空，沪铜下周预计仍偏弱运行：铜周报20260315-20260316

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoint - The macroeconomic situation is bearish, and the Shanghai copper futures are expected to remain weak next week [1] Summary by Directory Price Data - This week, the Shanghai copper futures fluctuated weakly, with downstream consumption recovering and the spot premium of copper rising [10][14] Fundamental Data - The average price of the copper concentrate TC index decreased by $4.34 per ton week-on-week to -$60.39 per ton, continuing to decline [16] - The port inventory of copper concentrate was 404,000 tons this week, a decrease of 81,000 tons week-on-week [19] - The spread between refined and scrap copper fluctuated this week [22] - The domestic electrolytic copper production in March is expected to be nearly 1.2 million tons, reaching a new high, with a month-on-month increase of 4.62% and a year-on-year increase of 6.51% [24] - The cumulative import of unwrought copper and copper products from January to February was 700,000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 16.1% [27] - The spot inventory of electrolytic copper decreased this week, but it is still higher year-on-year, while the bonded area inventory increased slightly [29] - The LME inventory increased and the COMEX inventory decreased this week [30] - The operating rate of refined copper rods increased week-on-week, driven by previous orders, with inventory reduction and rising purchasing sentiment [32] - The production and sales of automobiles from January to February decreased year-on-year, and the new energy vehicle sales also decreased year-on-year [34] - The export of components was affected by the geopolitical conflict in the Middle East [36] - The total production schedule of air conditioners, refrigerators, and washing machines in March decreased by 4% compared with the actual performance of the same period last year [39] Macroeconomic Data - China's new social financing in February was 2.38 trillion yuan, new RMB loans were 900 billion yuan, and M2 increased by 9% year-on-year [42] - US inflation cooled, with the CPI rising 2.4% year-on-year and the core CPI rising 2.5% year-on-year in February [45] - The market no longer expects the Fed to cut interest rates this year [46]