碳酸锂：延续供需博弈格局，区间弱势震荡，成材：重心下移偏弱运行

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The lithium carbonate market will continue the supply - demand game pattern and experience weak oscillations within a certain range [1][3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Performance - Last week, the lithium carbonate futures market continued to be weak, with the main contract closing down 2.60% to 152,080 yuan/ton. Market trading sentiment cooled, trading volume increased to 288,600 lots, and positions continued to decline. The spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 159,000 yuan/ton on average. Upstream lithium salt producers were reluctant to sell and tried to support prices, while downstream material producers were cautious and only made purchases based on rigid demand, resulting in light trading [1]. - The trading momentum of the lithium - battery sector weakened, and funds flowed to the oil - chemical and precious - metal sectors [1]. 3.2 Supply - demand Fundamentals Supply - Last week, raw material prices were divided (spodumene prices generally rose, while lepidolite and amblygonite prices fell) and remained at a high level. The SMM operating rate rose to 53.41%, and the total output increased to 23,426 tons (+836 tons). Imports from Chile in March were sufficient, supplementing the domestic supply. Overall supply increased steadily, strengthening the medium - term expectation of a loose supply [2]. Demand - The production scheduling in March was expected to be optimistic, but the downstream's acceptance of high prices was low. Last week, the production and inventory of ternary lithium - iron phosphate increased. The production and sales of energy - storage cells were booming, and the inventory was at a low level, which was a structural highlight. However, the downstream mainly replenished inventory at low prices, creating a stalemate with the upstream's price - support efforts [2]. Inventory - Last week, the SMM four - location social inventory decreased to 42,500 tons (-490 tons), the sample weekly inventory decreased to 99,000 tons, and the total inventory days decreased to 27.8 days, maintaining a tight - balance pattern. Refineries continued to reduce inventory, while the downstream replenished inventory to 45,600 tons [2]. 3.3 Policy and Geopolitical Factors International - The US White House's 15% temporary tariff policy is still within the window period, which is a phased positive for demand. The tense situation between the US and Iran continues, and the geopolitical risk premium still exists, disturbing market sentiment. The weakening of the global interest - rate cut expectation puts pressure on the non - ferrous metal sector [3]. Domestic - The subsidy for trading in old cars for new ones and the battery export tax rebate (to be officially implemented on April 1st, currently in the last window period) stimulate terminal consumption. The management measures for the comprehensive utilization of new - energy vehicle power batteries will optimize the domestic supply structure in the long term and raise the cost - support center. Policies such as the development of Qinghai salt lakes, the "14th Five - Year Plan" for energy storage, and the Central Economic Work Conference support the long - term supply - demand balance. The 2026 government work report mentioned zero - carbon parks/factories, which are expected to become the second growth curve for energy storage [3].