华宝期货晨报铝锭-20260316

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The price of finished products is expected to move in a volatile and consolidating manner, with the price center shifting downward and running weakly [1][2] - The price of aluminum ingots is expected to run strongly in the short term, with geopolitical risk premiums still present and prices remaining at a high level [1][3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Finished Products - Yunnan and Guizhou short - process construction steel producers will have a shutdown and maintenance period from mid - to late January, with a resumption around the 11th to 16th day of the first lunar month, affecting a total output of 741,000 tons [1] - In Anhui, 1 out of 6 short - process steel mills stopped production on January 5th, and most will stop around mid - January, with a daily output impact of about 16,200 tons [2] - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the transaction area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% decrease from the previous period and a 43.2% increase year - on - year [2] - The price of finished products continued to decline yesterday, reaching a new low. In the context of weak supply and demand, market sentiment is pessimistic, and winter storage is sluggish, providing weak price support [2] Aluminum Ingots - Last week, the aluminum price was strong at a high level. Due to the uncertain geopolitical situation in the Middle East, Bahrain Aluminium has started phased shutdowns, while local Qatari aluminum plants have suspended production cuts, and the market is still pricing in geopolitical risks [1] - Currently, domestic bauxite supply is sufficient, and prices are stable. Fluctuations in shipping costs and rising oil prices have led to an increase in the intended transaction price, and market sentiment is cautious [2] - The weekly operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises increased by 2.4 percentage points to 61.9%, continuing the post - holiday recovery trend. The aluminum cable sector is strong, with the operating rate increasing by 2 percentage points to 65%, and the demand for UHV and overhead lines is strong [2] - The operating rate of aluminum foil leading enterprises remained stable at 72.9%. Although there is a recovery in traditional peak - season demand and short - term support from battery foils, the Middle East situation has affected air - conditioner exports and restricted the further increase in air - conditioner foil production [2] - Although domestic social inventories are increasing, due to the geopolitical situation in the Middle East, the risk premium of the global aluminum supply chain still exists, and price volatility has increased. Overseas prices are strongly supported, while domestic prices have weaker upward momentum, and the Shanghai - London ratio has decreased [3]