宏观周报（3月第2周）：高油价中枢短期难以扭转-20260316

Macro Overview - The overall GDP growth target for 2026 is set at 4.5%-5%, indicating a shift towards high-quality development rather than short-term growth[9] - Inflation targets are set at 2%, with a focus on supply-side reforms to address "strong supply, weak demand" issues[10] - The fiscal deficit is maintained at 4%, with local special bonds and long-term bonds allocated at CNY 4.5 trillion and CNY 1.3 trillion respectively[10] Market Performance - The market experienced a decline with a daily average trading volume of CNY 24,987 billion, down CNY 1,459 billion week-on-week[8] - The CPI and PPI for February exceeded expectations, with CPI showing a month-on-month increase and PPI recording positive growth for five consecutive months[8] - Exports in January-February increased by 21.8% year-on-year, significantly above expectations, supported by industrialization in southern countries[8] Fixed Income and Monetary Policy - The bond market showed a mixed performance with short-term rates declining due to liquidity easing, while long-term rates remained under pressure from inflation data[8] - The central bank implemented a net withdrawal of CNY 1,011 billion last week, with expectations of further easing in short-term liquidity[8] Geopolitical and Global Market Impact - The ongoing US-Iran conflict has led to a high oil price center, which is expected to remain elevated for an extended period[8] - The US stock market saw declines, with the Dow Jones down 1.99% and the S&P 500 down 1.6%[8] - The upcoming Federal Reserve meeting may increase market volatility due to potential adjustments in interest rate projections[8]