国新国证期货早报-20260316

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - On March 13, the A - share market experienced a collective decline, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.81%, the Shenzhen Component Index down 0.65%, and the ChiNext Index down 0.22%. The trading volume of the three major markets decreased slightly by 43.3 billion yuan compared to the previous day [1]. - The prices of various futures products showed different trends. For example, the palm oil futures continued to be strong, the soybean meal futures in the domestic market rose, while the pig futures declined [5]. - The supply - demand situations of different commodities vary. For instance, the supply of coke may decline due to environmental protection restrictions, while the supply of coking coal is relatively sufficient [4]. 3. Summary by Variety Stock Index Futures - On March 13, the A - share three major indexes collectively declined. The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4095.45 points, down 0.81%; the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 14280.78 points, down 0.65%; the ChiNext Index closed at 3310.28 points, down 0.22%. The trading volume of the three major markets was 2.42 trillion yuan, a slight decrease of 43.3 billion yuan from the previous day [1]. Commodity Futures - Coke and Coking Coal: On March 13, the coke weighted index had a narrow - range consolidation, closing at 1752.5, up 11.1; the coking coal weighted index fluctuated within a range, closing at 1205.6 yuan, up 16.4. The supply of coke may decline due to environmental protection restrictions during the Two Sessions, and the first - round price cut of coke has been implemented. The supply of coking coal is relatively sufficient as domestic coal mines gradually resume production and Mongolian coal customs clearance returns to a high level [2][3][4]. - Sugar: The US sugar had a narrow - range shock and a slight increase on Friday. The Zhengzhou sugar 2605 contract had a slight decline in the night session due to long - position liquidation. Indonesia plans to increase sugar production to 3 million tons this year by expanding and optimizing sugarcane plantations [4]. - Rubber: Due to a large short - term decline, the Shanghai rubber had a shock - based adjustment and a slight decline on Friday. As of March 13, the natural rubber inventory in the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased by 4270 tons to 136050 tons, and the futures warehouse receipts increased by 3300 tons to 120840 tons. The 20 - grade rubber inventory decreased by 1108 tons to 50702 tons, and the futures warehouse receipts decreased by 1108 tons to 49291 tons [4][5]. - Palm Oil: On Friday, with crude oil remaining at a high level, palm oil futures continued to be strong. The main contract P2605 hit new highs. The highest price was 9914, the lowest was 9722, and the closing price was 9880, up 1.15% from the previous trading day. Short - term focus should be on the evolution of the Middle East geopolitical situation and its impact on palm oil prices through the international crude oil price [5]. - Soybean Meal: Internationally, on March 13, the CBOT soybean main contract closed at 1223.75 cents per bushel, down 0.16%. In Brazil, the soybean harvest is more than half - completed, and the export capacity is expected to increase rapidly. In Argentina, the soybean production forecast remains at 48 million tons. Domestically, on March 13, the soybean meal main contract M2605 closed at 3128 yuan per ton, up 2.42%. China's soybean imports from January to February decreased by 7.8% year - on - year, and the market is worried about the tightening of soybean supply from March to April [5]. - Pig: On March 13, the pig main contract LH2605 closed at 11130 yuan per ton, down 0.36%. The supply side is relatively loose, and the demand side is in the off - season. However, the price decline may be limited due to potential bottom - fishing and state reserve purchase [5]. - Copper: On Friday, the Shanghai copper main contract closed at 100310 yuan per ton. The Middle East situation has pushed up oil prices and inflation expectations, and the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation has been postponed, causing the US dollar to strengthen and suppressing copper prices. The domestic copper supply in March is expected to increase, and the LME copper inventory has increased, with significant inventory pressure [5]. - Iron Ore: On March 13, the iron ore 2605 main contract rose by 2.33%, closing at 811.5 yuan. The iron ore shipment decreased significantly, the arrival volume increased, and the port inventory continued to accumulate. However, with the resumption of production by steel mills, the demand for iron ore may recover, and the short - term price is in a shock trend [6]. - Asphalt: On March 13, the asphalt 2606 main contract rose by 3.1%, closing at 4089 yuan. Due to geopolitical conflicts, the market is worried about raw material supply, and the downstream stocking enthusiasm has increased. The short - term price may follow the oil price [7]. - Log: The log 2605 main contract opened at 790.5, with a minimum of 790.5, a maximum of 798, and closed at 792.5, with a daily reduction of 20 lots. The import of logs from January to February decreased by 11.2% year - on - year [7]. - Cotton: On Friday night, the Zhengzhou cotton main contract closed at 15450 yuan per ton. The cotton inventory increased by 181 lots compared to the previous trading day. The cotton inventory in Qingdao Port is at a relatively high level in recent years, and local traders are bullish on the future price of foreign cotton [7]. - Steel: The supply and demand of rebar are both increasing seasonally. The supply pressure is increasing, and although the demand has improved, the improvement strength is uncertain. The steel price is under pressure but supported by raw material prices, and it continues to be in a shock - stable state [7]. - Alumina: The supply of alumina is relatively high, and the demand is relatively stable. The price is affected by geopolitical situations [7]. - Aluminum: The supply of electrolytic aluminum is stable, and the demand has slightly recovered. The profit of aluminum plants is still good, but high aluminum prices may suppress consumption [7].