股指或有所承压，国债或延续震荡

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The US Q4 GDP growth rate was significantly revised down to 0.7% due to government shutdown; the US March Michigan consumer confidence hit a three - month low; the US January core PCE price increased 3.1% year - on - year, a two - year high. With the continuation of the US - Iran war and many events and data within the week, the stock index may be under pressure [11]. - China's new social financing in February 2026 was 2.38 trillion yuan, new RMB loans were 900 billion yuan, and M2 increased 9% year - on - year. Affected by the news of the 6th round of China - US economic and trade consultations in France and the strengthening of the US dollar index, the bond market sentiment turned cautious. Considering the high - volatility market caused by the international geopolitical situation, government bonds may fluctuate [13]. - In February 2026, the manufacturing PMI fell to 49.0%. The decline in external demand and the risk of imported inflation need to be vigilant [19]. - In February 2026, CPI and core CPI both rebounded significantly year - on - year and month - on - month. After the Spring Festival, CPI may face downward pressure, and PPI may turn positive as early as March. Attention should be paid to the transmission from PPI to CPI [21]. - From January to February 2026, China's exports increased significantly year - on - year, mainly due to the "global manufacturing cycle up + export rush effect". AI investment wave may be the main driving force of this manufacturing cycle [23]. - In 2025, the fixed - asset investment growth rate was - 3.8%, and the decline in December continued to expand. The growth rate of private investment and public investment both declined [27]. - In 2025, the year - on - year growth rates of social retail, social retail excluding automobiles, and above - quota retail all rebounded slightly compared with 2024. In December, the growth rate of social retail fell, while the decline of above - quota retail narrowed [30]. - In February 2026, new social financing was 2.4 trillion yuan, and new RMB loans were 0.9 trillion yuan. Social financing increased year - on - year, mainly supported by credit and non - standard financing. The social financing growth rate may face downward pressure but is expected to remain in an appropriate range [32]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Financial Futures Strategy Suggestions Stock Index Strategy Suggestions - Strategy outlook: Range - bound [11]. - Stock index trend review: Most stocks fell, with more than 3,800 stocks in the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets closing down [11]. - Core view: Due to multiple factors such as the US economic data and the US - Iran war, the stock index may be under pressure [11]. - Technical analysis: The MACD indicator shows that the market index may fluctuate [11]. Government Bond Strategy Suggestions - Government bond trend review: The 30 - year main contract fell 0.25%, the 10 - year main contract fell 0.07%, the 5 - year main contract was flat, and the 2 - year main contract was flat [13]. - Core view: Affected by various factors, the bond market sentiment turned cautious, and government bonds may fluctuate [13]. - Technical analysis: The MACD indicator shows that the T main contract may fluctuate [13]. - Strategy outlook: Fluctuating [13]. Key Data Tracking PMI - In February 2026, the manufacturing PMI fell to 49.0%. The decline in external demand and the risk of imported inflation need attention [19]. CPI - In February 2026, CPI and core CPI both rebounded significantly year - on - year and month - on - month. After the Spring Festival, CPI may face downward pressure, and PPI may turn positive as early as March [21]. Import and Export - From January to February 2026, China's exports were 656.58 billion US dollars, imports were 442.96 billion US dollars, and the trade surplus was 213.62 billion US dollars. The high growth of exports was due to the "global manufacturing cycle up + export rush effect" [23]. Fixed - Asset Investment - In 2025, the fixed - asset investment growth rate was - 3.8%. In December, the growth rate of private investment was - 17.2%, and the growth rate of public investment was - 14.3% [27]. Social Retail - In 2025, the year - on - year growth rates of social retail, social retail excluding automobiles, and above - quota retail were 3.7%, 4.4%, and 3.3% respectively. In December, the growth rate of social retail fell, while the decline of above - quota retail narrowed [30]. Social Financing - In February 2026, new social financing was 2.4 trillion yuan, and new RMB loans were 0.9 trillion yuan. Social financing increased year - on - year, mainly supported by credit and non - standard financing. The social financing growth rate may face downward pressure but is expected to remain in an appropriate range [32].