格林大华期货早盘提示：贵金属-20260316

Group 1: Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Report's Core View - COMEX gold and silver futures, along with Shanghai gold and silver futures, all declined on March 16, 2026. The market is affected by factors such as the change in ETF positions, Fed interest - rate expectations, central bank gold - buying trends, and the situation in the Middle East. The short - term market is uncertain, and investors should control their positions and prevent risks [1][2] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Market Quotes - COMEX gold futures dropped 2.00% to $5023.10/ounce, COMEX silver futures fell 5.25% to $80.64/ounce. Shanghai gold's main contract decreased 1.31% to 1126.64 yuan/gram, and Shanghai silver's main contract declined 4.59% to 20682 yuan/kg [1] - The U.S. dollar index rose 0.76% to 100.50 on Friday, up 1.56% for the week. The 10 - year U.S. Treasury yield rose to 4.27%, up 14 basis points for the week. Brent May crude oil futures rose 3.41% to $103.89/barrel, up 12.08% for the week [2] Important Information - On March 13, the holdings of the world's largest gold ETF, SPDR Gold Trust, decreased by 4.287 tons to 1071.565 tons, and the holdings of the world's largest silver ETF, iShares Silver Trust, decreased by 78.88 tons to 15460.18 tons [1] - According to CME's "FedWatch", the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points this week is 0.8%, and the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 99.2%. The probability of a 25 - basis - point cut by April is 6.9%, and the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 93%, with a 0% probability of a 50 - basis - point cut. The probability of a 25 - basis - point cut by June is 24.7% [1] - In January 2026, global central banks' net gold purchases were 5 tons, showing a slowdown compared to the monthly average of 27 tons in 2025. Geopolitical tensions may drive central banks to continue increasing gold holdings [1] - The U.S. core PCE in January increased 0.4% month - on - month and 3.1% year - on - year, in line with expectations [1] - There are signs that the Middle East conflict may continue. The U.S. and Iran have no intention to stop the war. The Israeli military said the operation against Iran would last at least three more weeks [1] Market Logic - The strengthening of the U.S. dollar and the decline in Fed rate - cut expectations led to the continued decline of COMEX gold and silver on Friday. The short - term will test the support levels of $5000/ounce and $80/ounce [2] Trading Strategy - Due to the high short - term market uncertainty, investors should control their positions and prevent risks [2]