美伊事件影响持续偏强震荡：长江期货尿素周报-20260316

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - Affected by the US-Iran conflict, the chemical sector has risen strongly. The urea futures price has increased, and the spot price has also risen. Although the weekly urea production load has slightly decreased, the overall market supply is still at a relatively high level. With the approaching of the spring plowing season, the agricultural fertilizer demand continues to increase, the compound fertilizer production capacity operation rate has increased, and the raw material replenishment has increased the demand for urea. The inventory level of urea enterprises is relatively low year-on-year, and the inventory reduction is smooth. Affected by the US-Iran incident, the price is expected to fluctuate strongly [2]. 3. Summary According to the Directory Market Changes - The urea futures price opened higher and then fell back, but the price center continued to move up. On March 13, the closing price of the urea 2605 contract was 1,889 yuan/ton, an increase of 59 yuan/ton or 3.22% from the previous week. The highest price during the period was 1,954 yuan/ton, and the lowest was 1,831 yuan/ton. The daily average price of urea in the Henan spot market was 1,852 yuan/ton, an increase of 31 yuan/ton or 1.7% from the previous week [2][5]. - The main urea basis weakened compared with the previous week. On March 13, the main basis in the Henan market was -37 yuan/ton, and the weekly basis operation range was (-63) - (-13) yuan/ton. The 5 - 9 spread of urea fluctuated narrowly. On March 13, the 5 - 9 spread was -23 yuan/ton, and the weekly operation range was (-28) - (-13) yuan/ton [2][9]. Fundamental Changes Supply - The urea production load rate was 93.23%, a decrease of 0.39 percentage points from the previous week. Among them, the production load rate of gas - based enterprises was 83.5%, a decrease of 1.03 percentage points from the previous week. The daily average urea output was 219,700 tons. Some installations in regions such as Henan and Shandong were under maintenance or short - stopped, and the production load decreased slightly. Although some installations will be adjusted next week, the overall market supply level is still relatively high [2][12]. Cost - The price of anthracite coal fluctuated slightly. As of March 12, the含税 price of anthracite washed small pieces with S0.4 - 0.5 in Jincheng, Shanxi was 880 - 930 yuan/ton; the含税 price of anthracite washed lumps with S1 - 1.5 in Yangquan, Shanxi was 780 - 840 yuan/ton, both of which were flat compared with the closing price of the previous week [2][15]. Demand - Agricultural demand: As the temperature warms up, the demand for wheat green - turning fertilizer is gradually released. The average pre - collection of major urea production enterprises is 6.5 days, and the weekly production and sales rate of urea enterprises is 101.3% [18]. - Industrial demand: The compound fertilizer enterprise production capacity operation rate was 45.56%, an increase of 8.54 percentage points from the previous week. The compound fertilizer inventory was 748,900 tons, a decrease of 1.75 percentage points from the previous week. The melamine enterprise production load rate was 56.96%, an increase of 7.56 percentage points from the previous week, and the weekly output was 31,980 tons. It is expected that the production load rate of the melamine industry will gradually increase to over 60% next week. The demand support in the panel market has weakened [22][25][26]. Inventory - Urea enterprise inventory was 721,000 tons, a decrease of 149,000 tons from the previous week and a decrease of 439,000 tons compared with the same period last year. Urea port inventory was 269,000 tons, an increase of 50,000 tons from the previous week. The number of registered urea warehouse receipts was 8,055, totaling 161,100 tons, an increase of 2,369 receipts or 47,380 tons compared with the same period last year [2][29]. Main Operating Logic - Although the weekly production load has slightly decreased, the overall market supply level is still relatively high. The agricultural fertilizer procurement in various regions, the increase in the compound fertilizer production capacity operation rate, and the increase in raw material replenishment support the demand for urea. The inventory level of urea enterprises is relatively low year - on - year, and the inventory reduction is smooth. Affected by the US - Iran incident, the price fluctuates strongly [2]. Key Points to Watch - The operation of compound fertilizer production, the reduction and maintenance of urea installations, export policies, and coal price fluctuations [2].