2026年3月16日申万期货品种策略日报-黄金白银-20260316

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - In the short term, the ongoing stalemate in the US - Iran conflict, high - volatility international crude oil prices, and the resulting rise in global inflation expectations have led to a significant cooling of market expectations for the Fed to cut interest rates, along with higher US dollar index and US Treasury yields, which continue to suppress the performance of precious metals. In the long run, the price center of precious metals will continue to move up. The long - term upward trend of gold remains unchanged due to multiple factors such as geopolitical risks, anti - inflation needs, de - dollarization, and central bank gold purchases. Silver, platinum, and palladium follow the overall sector trend with greater volatility [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Prices and Changes: For gold futures, the closing prices of沪金2606 and沪金2604 on the previous day were 1135.90 and 1133.00 respectively, down 15.62 and 15.10 from the day before, with declines of 1.36% and 1.32%. For silver futures, the closing prices of沪银2606 and沪银2604 on the previous day were 20923 and 21103 respectively, down 1139 and 1122 from the day before, with declines of 5.16% and 5.05% [2]. - Positions and Volumes: The positions of沪金2606 and沪金2604 were 140959 and 102674, and the trading volumes were 86582 and 178365 respectively. The positions of沪银2606 and沪银2604 were 212096 and 83802, and the trading volumes were 519958 and 93889 respectively [2]. - Spot Premiums: The spot premiums of沪金2606 and沪金2604 were - 4.65 and - 1.75, and those of沪银2606 and沪银2604 were - 36 and - 216 respectively [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - Prices and Changes: The closing prices of Shanghai Gold T + D and London Gold on the previous day were 1131.25 and 5018.10 respectively, down 15.01 and 59.84 from the day before, with declines of 1.31% and 1.18%. The closing prices of Shanghai Silver T + D and London Silver on the previous day were 20887 and 80.54 respectively, down 964 and 3.24 from the day before, with declines of 4.41% and 3.87% [2]. - Price Ratios: The current values of沪金2606 - 沪金2604,沪银2606 - 沪银2604, gold/silver (spot), Shanghai Gold/London Gold, and Shanghai Silver/London Silver were 2.90, - 180.00, 54.16, 1.02, and 1.17 respectively, with corresponding previous values of 3.42, - 163.00, 52.46, 1.02, and 1.17 [2]. 3.3 Inventory - Changes: The current inventories of Shanghai Futures Exchange gold, Shanghai Futures Exchange silver, COMEX gold, and COMEX silver were 105417 kg, 326566 kg, 32551562 troy ounces, and 341723209 troy ounces respectively, with changes of - 3 kg, + 16592 kg, - 104844 troy ounces, and - 2601615 troy ounces compared to the previous values [2]. 3.4 Related Markets - Indices and Yields: The current values of the US dollar index, S&P 500 index, 10 - year US Treasury yield, Brent crude oil, and US dollar/Chinese yuan were 100.50, 6632.19, 4.28%, 103.89, and 6.9030 respectively, with changes of + 0.76, - 40.43, + 0.01%, + 2.14, and + 0.0278 compared to the previous values [2]. 3.5 Derivatives - ETF and Net Positions: The current positions of SPDR Gold ETF and SLV Silver ETF were 1072 tons and 15460 tons respectively, with changes of - 4 tons and - 79 tons compared to the previous values. The current net positions of CFTC speculators in gold and silver were 163132 and 24578 respectively, with increases of 2987 and 1240 compared to the previous values [2]. 3.6 Macro News - US - Iran Relations: Trump said the US is in dialogue with Iran but thinks they are not ready. He warned NATO that if allies don't help reopen the Strait of Hormuz, NATO will face a "very bad" future. He also hinted at a new strike on Iran's oil export hub and infrastructure [3]. - US Treasury Market: Rising oil prices have led to concerns about stagflation, erasing the US Treasury market's gains this year. Yields have risen, and Wall Street has lowered expectations for US interest rate cuts [4]. - Multinational Convoy: The Trump administration plans to announce a multinational alliance to escort ships through the Strait of Hormuz as early as this week, but discussions on the timing of such actions are ongoing [4]. - IEA Oil Release: The IEA will immediately release record - reserve crude oil to the Asian market, while oil for Europe and the Americas will be released by the end of March. About 72% of the committed oil volume is crude oil, and 28% is petroleum products [5].