20260316申万期货品种策略日报-软商品-20260316

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - For sugar, the overnight Zhengzhou sugar main contract oscillated upward and is at the upper edge of the range. The Iran situation may push up the ethanol - to - sugar price, and sugar mills may adjust the sugar - making ratio, with a possible decline in the 26/27 sugar - making ratio. In the short term, raw sugar will maintain an oscillating operation. In the medium term, the risk of a downward adjustment of Brazil's expected output may offset part of the supply surplus. In the domestic market, Zhengzhou sugar is boosted by the external market, and attention should be paid to the impact of the macro - environment on the market [5]. - For cotton, the Zhengzhou cotton main contract rose and then fell with a reduction in positions, and the price center shifted upward. The escalation of the Middle East situation may end the recent market adjustment, and the expected callback range is relatively limited. In the long - term, with the expectation of tight supply and demand, cotton prices may still have room to rise. In the domestic market, consumption has increased, and with last year's carry - over inventory at a low level, the supply this year is expected to be tight. Policy regulation on the expected planting area may support cotton prices in the long - term [5]. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - For domestic sugar futures, the prices of contracts SR2609, SR2605, and SR2611 all rose, with increases of 36, 31, and 36 respectively, and the increase rates were 0.66%, 0.57%, and 0.66% respectively. The prices of 11 - sugar contracts 2610, 2607, and 2605 had little change, with the increase rate of 2607 being 0.14% [2]. - For cotton, the Zhengzhou cotton main contract rose and then fell with a reduction in positions, and the price center shifted upward [5]. Spot Market - The current spot price of white sugar in Liuzhou is 5500, and in Kunming is 5335. The current import prices of Brazilian sugar within the quota and outside the quota are 3331 and 4239 respectively, and those of Thai sugar are 3847 and 4912 respectively [2]. Industry Information - On March 15, 2026, the road transportation price index of Xinjiang - bound cotton was 0.1593 yuan/ton·km, remaining the same as the previous period. In the short - term, the freight index is expected to remain relatively stable [3]. - From March 11 to 13, 4 more sugar mills in Guangxi completed the sugar - pressing season, and as of the 13th, a total of 11 sugar mills in Guangxi had completed the 2025/26 sugar - pressing season, 51 less than the same period last year. The total production capacity of the completed sugar mills is 9.1 tons/day, a year - on - year decrease of 43.15 tons/day. The sugar - pressing cycle of this season has been extended [3]. - The FAO sugar price index in February averaged 86.2 points, a month - on - month decrease of 3.7 points (4.1%) and a year - on - year decrease of 32.4 points (27.3%), reaching the lowest level since October 2020. The market's expectation of sufficient global supply this season continues to put downward pressure on international sugar prices [4].