黄金：短线黄金走弱

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core View of the Report - In 2026, the price trends of gold showed a mixed picture. The London Gold and Shanghai Gold indices had year - to - date increases of 17.59% and 15.9% respectively, but last week they declined by 1.76% and 0.68% respectively. Short - term gold is weak, affected by factors such as the rising US dollar index and market liquidity risks. In the medium term, geopolitical factors and inflation risks need to be considered, and there is uncertainty. In the long term, de - dollarization is still ongoing, which is a long - term positive factor for gold. It is recommended to hold the remaining long positions of gold in the medium term and wait for an opportunity to add positions. For options, a short - term double - buying strategy can be considered [7][8]. Summary by Directory 1. Week - ly View and Strategy - Market Performance: In 2026, the London Gold and Shanghai Gold indices had year - to - date increases of 17.59% and 15.9% respectively, and last week they declined by 1.76% and 0.68% respectively [7][28]. - Inflation: In June 2022, CPI reached a high of 9.1% and then declined. Core CPI and core PCE also trended down. Since September 2024, CPI has been in a strong oscillation. In February 2026, US CPI rose 2.4% year - on - year. Due to geopolitical escalation and a sharp rise in oil prices, inflation may rise again [7][32]. - Interest Rates: US medium - term treasury bond yields have been oscillating downward since mid - to - late October 2023 until January this year. After wide - range oscillations in 2024, they continued to decline in 2025 and rebounded in February [7][37]. - Supply and Demand: In 2024, the global gold supply and demand was loose due to rising inventories, and central bank gold purchases remained above 1000 tons. In 2024, the domestic gold supply and demand was in a tight balance, with a slight increase in supply. Demand structure changed, with a decline in jewelry demand and a significant increase in demand for gold bars, coins, and investment. In 2025, global and domestic investment demand reached a record high. Due to the new gold tax policy, domestic physical gold demand may be affected, and jewelry demand may continue to decline in 2026 [7][54]. - US Economy: In February 2026, non - farm payrolls decreased by 92,000, far lower than the expected increase of 55,000. The unemployment rate rose 0.1 percentage point to 4.4%, and the average hourly wage rose 0.3% month - on - month [7][48]. - Outlook and Strategy: On Friday, gold oscillated and adjusted. The US dollar index reached a new high, and risk assets fell, which was negative for gold. In the short term, factors such as market liquidity risk, the US dollar index, and risk - aversion sentiment need to be monitored. In the medium term, geopolitical factors and inflation risks are important. It is recommended to hold the remaining long positions of gold in the medium term and wait for an opportunity to add positions. For options, a short - term double - buying strategy can be considered [8]. 2. Futures and Spot Market - Last week, gold oscillated slightly. In 2026, the London Gold and Shanghai Gold indices had year - to - date increases of 17.59% and 15.9% respectively, and last week they declined by 1.76% and 0.68% respectively [22][28]. 3. Inflation - In June 2022, CPI reached a high of 9.1% and then declined. PCE also peaked and declined in June 2022. Core CPI and core PCE trended down. Since September 2024, CPI has been in a strong oscillation, and core inflation has remained stable. In February 2026, US CPI rose 2.4% year - on - year, the same as the previous value. Due to geopolitical escalation and a sharp rise in oil prices, inflation may rise again [32]. 4. Interest Rates - US medium - term treasury bond yields have been oscillating downward since mid - to - late October 2023 until January this year. After wide - range oscillations in 2024, they continued to decline in 2025 and rebounded in February. The real interest rate continued to decline [37][42]. 5. US Economy - In the fourth quarter of 2026, US GDP increased 2.23% year - on - year, down 0.1% from 2.33%. In February 2026, the ISM manufacturing PMI was 52.4, down 0.2%, and the service PMI was 56.1, up 2.3%. In February 2026, non - farm payrolls decreased by 92,000, far lower than the expected increase of 55,000. The unemployment rate rose 0.1 percentage point to 4.4%, and the average hourly wage rose 0.3% month - on - month [45][48]. 6. Gold Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - In 2024, the global gold supply and demand was loose due to rising inventories, and central bank gold purchases remained above 1000 tons. In 2024, the domestic gold supply and demand was in a tight balance, with a slight increase in supply. Demand structure changed, with a decline in jewelry demand and a significant increase in demand for gold bars, coins, and investment. In 2025, global and domestic investment demand reached a record high. Due to the new gold tax policy, domestic physical gold demand may be affected, and jewelry demand may continue to decline in 2026 [54]. 7. Exchange Rate and US Dollar Index No detailed analysis of the impact on gold is provided, only relevant data charts are presented. 8. Gold Domestic - Foreign Price Difference - Shanghai Gold mostly has a premium [85]. 9. Gold Basis No information provided. 10. Gold - Silver - Oil Ratio No information provided.