西南期货早间评论-20260316

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The macro - economic recovery momentum needs to be strengthened, and the monetary policy is expected to remain loose. The market is affected by various factors such as the Iran situation, and different commodities have different trends and investment suggestions [6][8][10]. 3. Summary by Directory Treasury Bonds - On the previous trading day, the performance of treasury bond futures was divided. The 30 - year and 10 - year main contracts declined, while the 5 - year and 2 - year main contracts remained flat. The central bank conducted 375 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 73 billion yuan on that day. The macro - economic recovery momentum needs to be strengthened, and the treasury bond market is expected to face certain pressure [5][6]. Stock Index Futures - On the previous trading day, stock index futures showed mixed trends. The domestic economy is stable, but the recovery momentum is weak. The asset valuation is low, and the policy environment is favorable. However, due to the high uncertainty of the Iran situation, the market volatility is expected to increase significantly, and it is recommended to wait on the sidelines [8]. Precious Metals - On the previous trading day, gold and silver main contracts declined. The global trade and financial environment is complex, and the long - term logic of precious metals is still strong. However, due to the high uncertainty of the Iran situation, the market volatility is expected to increase, and it is recommended to wait and see [10]. Steel (Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil) - On the previous trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures fluctuated. In the short term, the Middle East conflict may affect sentiment, and in the medium term, the price is dominated by supply - demand logic. The demand for rebar is still declining year - on - year, and the supply pressure has been alleviated. The price may rebound but with limited space. It is recommended that investors pay attention to low - position long - entry opportunities [12]. Iron Ore - On the previous trading day, iron ore futures continued to rise. In the short term, the Middle East conflict may affect sentiment, and in the long term, the increase in iron ore imports and high inventory levels may limit the upward space. The increase in iron water production may support the price. It is recommended that investors pay attention to low - position long - entry opportunities [14]. Coking Coal and Coke - On the previous trading day, coking coal and coke futures continued to rebound. In the short term, the Middle East conflict may affect sentiment. The supply of coking coal may increase, and the demand is weak. The supply of coke is stable, and the increase in iron water production may support the price. It is recommended that investors pay attention to low - position long - entry opportunities [15]. Ferroalloys - On the previous trading day, the manganese silicon main contract rose, and the silicon iron main contract fell. The supply of manganese ore is gradually recovering, and the cost of ferroalloys fluctuates slightly. The production of ferroalloys is at a low level, and the demand is weak. After a rapid short - term price rebound, investors can consider taking profits on long positions [17][18]. Crude Oil - On the previous trading day, INE crude oil rose significantly due to the ongoing war between the US, Israel and Iran and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. The increase in net long positions in futures and options shows that US funds are optimistic about the future of crude oil. The war has an expanding trend, and the shortage of global crude oil supply is expected to support the price. It is recommended to focus on long - entry opportunities for the main crude oil contract [19][20][21]. Polyolefins - On the previous trading day, the PP market in Hangzhou fluctuated, and the LLDPE price in Yuyao was adjusted. In the short term, the contraction of polyolefins is obvious, and the long - term supply pressure will gradually be released. The demand shows the characteristics of "rising start - up but cautious procurement". It is recommended to focus on long - entry opportunities [23]. Synthetic Rubber - On the previous trading day, the synthetic rubber main contract fell slightly. The core driver of the market is the increase in crude oil prices due to the escalation of the Middle East conflict, which supports the cost of synthetic rubber. The short - term price is supported, and the medium - term needs to pay attention to the sustainability of crude oil prices and the recovery of tire demand. The view is a strong - side shock [25][26][27]. Natural Rubber - On the previous trading day, the natural rubber main contract and 20 - number rubber main contract fell. The core driver of the market is the increase in crude oil prices, which strengthens the substitution demand for natural rubber. The supply is in the low - production season, and the demand is gradually recovering. The inventory is still under pressure. The view is a strong - side shock [28]. PVC - On the previous trading day, the PVC main contract fell slightly. The market is driven by the overseas conflict and the start of domestic spring demand. The short - term cost support is strong, and the price is in a strong - side shock. The medium - term needs to pay attention to the inventory accumulation rhythm and the recovery of demand [29][30]. Urea - On the previous trading day, the urea main contract fell slightly. The market is driven by the global supply disturbance of urea due to the Middle East conflict and the domestic spring plowing demand. The short - term cost support is strengthened, but there are still policy regulation and capacity release pressures. The price may maintain a strong - side shock. The medium - term needs to pay attention to the changes in export quota policies and the rhythm of capacity investment [31][33]. p - Xylene (PX) - On the previous trading day, the PX2605 main contract fell slightly. The PXN spread and short - process profit are slightly compressed, and the PX load is slightly reduced. The downstream polyester and terminal industries are gradually recovering. The short - term PX price may run in a strong - side shock, and it is recommended to operate cautiously at low positions [34]. PTA - On the previous trading day, the PTA2605 main contract fell slightly. The PTA processing fee is adjusted, and the supply - demand expectation in March may improve. The price is mainly affected by the cost side. It is recommended to operate cautiously at low positions and pay attention to the progress of the US - Iran conflict and the change of crude oil prices [35][36][37]. Ethylene Glycol - On the previous trading day, the ethylene glycol main contract fell. The supply is expected to shrink, and the inventory is high. The short - term price needs to be treated with caution, and the inventory is expected to be reduced. It is necessary to pay attention to the progress of the geopolitical situation and the situation of the strait [38]. Short - Fiber - On the previous trading day, the short - fiber 2604 main contract fell. The supply is gradually increasing, and the terminal demand is recovering. The short - fiber inventory is at a low level, and the cost is relatively strong. The short - term trading is mainly based on the cost side, and it is necessary to pay attention to the progress of the geopolitical situation, device dynamics and the resumption of work of downstream factories [39][40]. Bottle Chips - On the previous trading day, the bottle chips 2605 main contract rose. The processing fee has increased significantly, and the supply is expected to shrink. The demand is increasing, and the cost support is strong. The bottle chips are expected to follow the cost side and run in a strong - side shock. It is recommended to participate cautiously and pay attention to the restart of maintenance devices and cost changes [41]. Soda Ash - On the previous trading day, the main 2605 contract of soda ash rose slightly. The supply of soda ash is relatively stable, and the inventory has decreased slightly. The downstream demand is general. The cost - pulling expectation exists, but there is no significant support signal in the fundamentals. The market sentiment is volatile, and it is necessary to control risks [42][43]. Glass - On the previous trading day, the main 2605 contract of glass rose slightly. The capacity reduction rhythm has slowed down, and the inventory has decreased slightly. The demand recovery is slow, and the spot trading atmosphere is weak. The price is in a high - position range, and the long - short game is intense. It is necessary to control positions and pay attention to the development of the Middle East situation [44][45]. Caustic Soda - On the previous trading day, the main 2605 contract of caustic soda rose. The supply is slightly reduced, and the inventory has decreased. The downstream demand is gradually recovering, and the export is favorable. The price is strong, but the actual export volume has not increased significantly. It is necessary to pay attention to overseas device dynamics, export orders, domestic inventory changes and device maintenance progress [47][48]. Pulp - On the previous trading day, the main 2605 contract of pulp fell slightly. The domestic production is expected to decrease, and the port inventory has decreased slightly. The downstream demand is weak, and the price increase of pulp is not well - supported. The needle - leaf pulp is affected by macro - sentiment, and the broad - leaf pulp is relatively stable [49]. Lithium Carbonate - On the previous trading day, the lithium carbonate main contract fell. The global lithium resource supply - demand balance is being reshaped, and the supply of lithium carbonate is decreasing. The consumption is improving, and the inventory is gradually decreasing. The price has short - term support, but the short - term volatility may increase [50][51]. Copper - On the previous trading day, the Shanghai copper main contract fell. The geopolitical conflict has pushed up energy prices and inflation expectations, and the US dollar is strong, which suppresses the non - ferrous metal sector. The supply pressure is large in the short term, and the downstream demand has certain support. The copper price may fluctuate weakly in the short term [52][53]. Aluminum - On the previous trading day, the Shanghai aluminum main contract fell, and the alumina main contract rose. The supply pressure of alumina is still large, and the cost support is limited. The Middle East conflict has affected the supply of electrolytic aluminum, and the supply tightening expectation has pushed up the spot premium. The domestic downstream consumption is recovering. The aluminum price is expected to continue to run strongly [54][55][56]. Zinc - On the previous trading day, the Shanghai zinc main contract fell. The domestic supply is increasing, and the overseas supply is disturbed. The demand is expected to recover, but the actual recovery strength needs to be verified. The inventory is still increasing. The zinc price may be under pressure and fluctuate [57][58]. Lead - On the previous trading day, the Shanghai lead main contract fell. The production of primary lead has increased, and the recovery of secondary lead is slow. The demand for lead batteries has recovered, but the geopolitical risk is not conducive to the recovery of export orders. The inventory is increasing, and the futures price is under pressure [59][60]. Tin - On the previous trading day, the Shanghai tin main contract fell. The geopolitical conflict has increased the price volatility of resources. The supply of tin is expected to increase, and the demand is complex. The inventory is decreasing, and the price has support. The short - term price volatility may increase, and it is necessary to control risks [61][62]. Nickel - On the previous trading day, the Shanghai nickel main contract fell. The geopolitical conflict has affected the price of resources. The production quota of the world's largest nickel mine may be significantly reduced, and the cost of nickel production is expected to rise. The downstream demand is weak, and the inventory is relatively high. The nickel market is in an oversupply situation, and it is necessary to pay attention to Indonesian policies and macro - events [63]. Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal - On the previous trading day, the soybean meal main contract rose, and the soybean oil main contract rose. The short - term decline is limited by the increase in crude oil prices. The domestic soybean import has slowed down, and the supply is gradually tightening. If the Middle East conflict continues to rise, investors can consider taking profits on long positions [64][65]. Palm Oil - The Malaysian palm oil has risen, and the export volume has increased. The domestic palm oil inventory is at a relatively high level. It is recommended to consider a long - side thinking [66][67]. Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - Canadian rapeseed has fluctuated. The increase in fertilizer prices may lead to a reduction in rapeseed planting area. The domestic import policy has changed, and the inventory of rapeseed, rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil is at different levels. It is recommended to consider positive - spread opportunities [68][69]. Cotton - The domestic cotton price has fluctuated. The global cotton production is expected to decrease in the new season, and the inventory is expected to decrease. The domestic supply is expected to be tight in the long - term, and the downstream consumption is resilient. The short - term market may be affected by the expectation of quota issuance [70][72]. Sugar - The domestic sugar price has run strongly. The Indian sugar production has been revised downwards, which is beneficial to the market sentiment. The domestic sugar production is expected to increase, and the supply is sufficient. The increase in crude oil prices supports the ethanol price, which indirectly benefits the sugar price [73][74][75]. Apples - The apple futures have fluctuated. The current inventory is low, and the quality is poor. The price is expected to run strongly in the long - term [76][77]. Pigs - On the previous trading day, the main pig contract fell. The current supply and demand are relatively balanced, but the supply may increase in the short term, and the price may be weak. The government has started the purchase and storage mechanism, but the short - term effect may be limited. It is recommended to consider short - selling opportunities at high positions [78][79]. Eggs - On the previous trading day, the main egg contract fell. The egg supply is expected to remain at a high level in March, and the cost increase may affect the price. It is recommended to hold short positions in the far - month contract lightly [80]. Corn and Corn Starch - On the previous trading day, the corn main contract fell, and the corn starch main contract rose. The domestic corn supply and demand are basically balanced, and the price may be affected by factors such as wheat substitution, inventory and crude oil prices. The demand for corn starch has recovered slightly, and it may follow the corn market [81][82][83]. Logs - On the previous trading day, the main 2605 contract of logs rose slightly. The shipment of New Zealand logs has increased, and the downstream demand has recovered. The market is in a high - position range, and the long - short game is intense. It is necessary to pay attention to the external quotation, shipment dynamics and downstream consumption [84][85].