油脂：等待生柴政策落地

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the document. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The palm oil market is affected by factors such as production, inventory, and policies. The production season is approaching, but there are uncertainties due to last year's drought in some areas and the transfer of plantation management rights in Indonesia. The B50 policy in Indonesia boosts consumption expectations. - The soybean oil market faces pressure from global soybean abundance and the upcoming peak of domestic soybean arrivals, but is supported by US biodiesel policies and domestic de - stocking. - The rapeseed oil market is pressured by global rapeseed abundance and the resumption of Canadian rapeseed imports, and is supported by US biodiesel policies. - In the short term, the Middle East situation has pushed up crude oil prices, and the oil market has followed the increase. However, the current market performance has deviated from the fundamentals. It is not recommended to chase the rise at high prices. Attention should be paid to the US biodiesel final decision and planting intention report at the end of March [82]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Palm Oil - Malaysia: In February, the production was 1284700 tons, a 18.55% month - on - month decrease, slightly lower than expected; exports were 1127600 tons, a 22.48% month - on - month decrease, lower than expected; inventory was 2704300 tons, a 3.94% month - on - month decrease, higher than the expected 2630000 tons. The production reduction season has ended, and production is expected to increase from March. Last year's low rainfall from May to July may affect production from March to May this year [14]. - Indonesia: In 2025, production was 56.906 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.144 million tons (7.85%); exports increased by 2.593 million tons (8.78%); domestic consumption increased by 3.68% to 24.738 million tons, with biodiesel consumption increasing by 1.225 million tons to 12.672 million tons; year - end inventory was 2.661 million tons, a 3.26% year - on - year increase. The government's rectification of illegal oil palm plantations may affect production. Similar to Malaysia, last year's low rainfall may also impact production [24]. - Export Policy: Indonesia plans to limit the export of palm oil waste and will increase the export levy on crude palm oil from 10% to 12.5% from March 1, 2026 [30]. - B50 Policy: Affected by the Middle East situation, the POGO spread has turned negative, and the biodiesel has become profitable. There are plans to implement B50 in the second half of 2026, and the road test is expected to be completed by June [35]. - Demand: The international soybean - palm oil price difference has turned negative, which is expected to affect India's import choices in March. China's palm oil imports are expected to decline, and inventory is high, making de - stocking difficult [49]. Soybean Oil - US: The February USDA report made little adjustment to the supply data of US soybeans in the 2025/26 season. The 2026 soybean planting area is expected to be 85 million acres, higher than last year and slightly higher than market expectations. Attention should be paid to the quarterly inventory report and planting intention report at the end of March. The final decision on US biodiesel is expected to be announced soon, with the RVO possibly set at 540 million gallons [53][55]. - South America: CONAB's February report predicted that the 2025/26 Brazilian soybean planting area would increase by 2.3% year - on - year, with a 1.5% increase in yield per unit area and a 3.8% increase in production. However, due to dry conditions in southern Brazil, some institutions have lowered the production forecast. The 2025/26 Argentine soybean production has been slightly lowered to 48 million tons [67]. - China: From January to February, soybean imports decreased by 7.8% year - on - year. The estimated arrivals in March, April, and May are 6.7275 million tons, 9.5 million tons, and 11 million tons respectively. There are rumors that China will purchase an additional 8 million tons of US soybeans. In the first quarter, due to a decrease in raw materials, the operating rate of oil mills declined, and soybean oil inventory has been decreasing [72]. Rapeseed Oil - China - Canada Trade: The anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed has ended, with a 5.9% tariff imposed on Canadian rapeseed, and the 100% tariff on Canadian rapeseed meal has been cancelled, while the tariff on rapeseed oil remains [73]. - Supply and Demand: Global rapeseed is in a state of abundance. After the anti - dumping decision, the market judgment has shifted to the import profit - pricing logic. Attention should be paid to the purchase rhythm of Canadian rapeseed and whether the commercial purchase of Australian rapeseed will be liberalized [82].