海外利率周报20260316：私募信贷市场的压力会导致对银行业的宽松吗？-20260316

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The main trading theme in the market this week is the US - Iran conflict. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has led to a continuous interruption of global oil supply, soaring oil prices, a downward revision of Q4 GDP, and high - inflation in line with expectations, which further reduces the Fed's annual interest - rate cut expectations, strengthens the US dollar, and puts pressure on stocks and bonds [2][13]. - The US private credit market has experienced a "redemption wave + redemption cap setting" event, which has lowered market expectations for private credit yields and credit quality and increased concerns about market liquidity. The private credit market has grown rapidly, and the pressure of risks is rising [3][14]. - There are signs of a policy shift at the regulatory level. The Fed is revising the "Basel III Endgame," but whether the regulatory rule shift can effectively urge the convergence of private credit risks remains doubtful, and the existing risks cannot be underestimated [4][15][16]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 US Treasury Yield Review this Week - Yield Changes: During the week from March 6 to March 13, 2026, the yield of 1 - month US Treasury remained unchanged at 3.75%, while the yields of 1 - year, 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year US Treasuries increased by 11bp, 17bp, 15bp, 13bp, and 13bp respectively, reaching 3.66%, 3.73%, 3.87%, 4.28%, and 4.90% [13]. - Private Credit Market Events: Morgan Stanley and Cliffwater LLC restricted redemptions of their private credit funds. Market expectations for private credit yields and quality have been lowered, especially for the software industry. The "redemption wave + redemption cap setting" event has increased concerns about market liquidity. As of February 11, 2026, Fed commercial bank loans to non - deposit financial institutions (NDFI) reached $1.9 trillion, a 35% increase from the beginning of 2025 [3][14]. - Regulatory Policy Shift: Fed Vice - Chair Michelle Bowman proposed to give banks more business flexibility to reduce the market share of non - bank financial institutions. The Fed is revising the "Basel III Endgame," which may reverse the original direction of regulatory reform [4][15]. - US Treasury Auctions: The 3 - year US Treasury auction on March 10 had a scale of $58 billion, a winning rate of 3.579%, a bid - to - cover ratio of 2.55 times, and a tail spread of 1.275. The 10 - year US Treasury auction on March 11 had a scale of $39 billion, a winning rate of 4.217%, a bid - to - cover ratio of 2.45 times, and a tail spread of 0.825. The 30 - year US Treasury auction on March 12 had a scale of $22 billion, a winning rate of 4.871%, a bid - to - cover ratio of 2.45 times, and a tail spread of - 0.650 [25][26]. 3.2 US Macroeconomic Indicator Review - Inflation: In January 2026, the monthly core PCE price index increased by 0.4% month - on - month, in line with expectations, and the annual core PCE was 3.1%, the highest since March 2024. In February, the seasonally - adjusted core CPI increased by 0.2% month - on - month, and the core CPI annual rate was 2.5%. The unadjusted CPI annual rate was 2.4% [33][34]. - Employment: As of the week ending March 7, 2026, the number of initial jobless claims was 213,000, lower than expected. As of the week ending February 28, the number of continued jobless claims decreased to 1.85 million. In January, the JOLTS job openings reached 6.946 million, the highest since October 2024 [35]. - Business Index: In February 2026, the annualized total number of existing home sales was 4.09 million, higher than expected, with a 1.7% month - on - month increase. The US Q4 2025 real GDP annualized quarterly - on - quarterly revised value was 0.7%, far lower than expected and the previous value [37]. 3.3 Major Asset Review - Bonds: German and Japanese bond yields increased across the board. German bond yields rose due to euro - zone inflation resilience and delayed expectations of ECB interest - rate cuts. Japanese bond yields rose as the market priced in the normalization of the Bank of Japan's policy and inflation recovery [39]. - Equities: Global stock markets generally declined, except for the Russian MOEX, which rose slightly by 0.62%. The A - share Shanghai Composite Index, the Indian Sensex30, and the Japanese Nikkei 225 were among the top decliners [39][40]. - Commodities: Energy, coal, and cryptocurrencies rose, while precious metals and some agricultural products fell slightly. Brent crude oil, coking coal, and Bitcoin were among the top gainers, while London gold, CBOT wheat, and LME copper were among the top decliners [40][41][42]. - Foreign Exchange: Major currencies generally weakened, with the Russian ruble, Japanese yen, and Indian rupee having the largest declines [43]. 3.4 Market Tracking - Bond Yields: The report presents the changes in the bond yields of major global economies, including China, the US, Japan, the UK, Germany, France, India, Vietnam, and South Korea [45]. - Stock Indices: It shows the changes in major global stock indices, such as the A - share Shanghai Composite Index, the Hong Kong Hang Seng Index, the US Nasdaq, the Japanese Nikkei 225, the Russian MOEX, etc. [47]. - Commodities: The report shows the changes in major commodities, including London gold, Brent crude oil, LME copper, CBOT wheat, etc. [50]. - Foreign Exchange: It presents the changes in major global foreign exchange rates against the RMB, such as the Hong Kong dollar, US dollar, Japanese yen, Russian ruble, etc. [52]. - Economic Data Panels: The report provides economic data panels for the US, Japan, and the euro - zone, including GDP, inflation, employment, and business indices [55][60][65].