长江期货粕类油脂周报-20260316

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The price of soybean meal is expected to be strong due to slower shipping from Brazil, tightened domestic supply - demand, and rising costs caused by higher oil prices. Attention should be paid to Brazil's shipping and auction situations [8]. - In the short - term, the prices of oils and fats will maintain a high - level volatile trend due to the continuous escalation of the Middle East war. Palm oil and soybean oil are relatively strong, while rapeseed oil is relatively weak. A rolling long strategy is recommended [71]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Soybean Meal 3.1.1 Periodic and Spot Market - As of March 13, the spot price in East China was 3350 yuan/ton, up 300 yuan/ton week - on - week. The M2605 contract closed at 3128 yuan/ton, up 213 yuan/ton week - on - week. The basis quote was 05 + 200 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton week - on - week [8][10]. 3.1.2 Supply - The March USDA report maintained the production of US and Brazilian soybeans and slightly reduced Argentina's soybean production, with the global soybean harvest pattern continuing. Brazil's soybean harvest progress accelerated, but domestic logistics capacity was mismatched, increasing domestic truck freight and ocean freight. Brazil's slow shipping led to a further downward adjustment of the expected arrival of soybeans in China from March to April, and soybeans and soybean meal were still in a destocking cycle [8]. 3.1.3 Demand - China's pig inventory remained high but entered a seasonal off - peak period, with the pig inventory decreasing month - on - month. Poultry inventory was high, and the addition ratio of soybean meal decreased. Overall, the demand for soybean meal remained high. The purchase sentiment of downstream buyers improved recently, with the national oil mill's soybean inventory slightly decreasing to 572.67 million tons, and the soybean meal inventory slightly increasing to 76.05 million tons [8]. 3.1.4 Cost - Based on the current US soybean price of 1200 cents, a premium of 120 cents, and a 2.9 oil - meal ratio, the theoretical price of soybean meal was 3025 yuan/ton. The import cost of Brazilian soybeans from July to September was 3100 yuan/ton. The planting cost of US soybeans in the 2026/27 season was 1218 cents per bushel, and it was expected to rise if oil prices continued to increase. The import crushing profit improved, with the crushing profit of Brazilian soybeans around 200 yuan/ton [8]. 3.1.5 Market Summary - Due to lower - than - expected shipping from Brazil, tightened domestic supply - demand, and rising costs from higher oil prices, the overall price of soybean meal was strong. Attention should be paid to Brazil's shipping and auction situations [8]. 3.2 Oils and Fats 3.2.1 Periodic and Spot Market - As of the week of March 13, the palm oil main 05 contract rose 550 yuan/ton to 9768 yuan/ton, the soybean oil main 05 contract rose 278 yuan/ton to 8690 yuan/ton, and the rapeseed oil main 05 contract rose 155 yuan/ton to 9821 yuan/ton. The corresponding spot prices also increased, and the basis of palm oil and rapeseed oil increased, while that of soybean oil decreased [71][73]. 3.2.2 Palm Oil - The MPOB February report showed that Malaysia's palm oil production and exports both decreased month - on - month, with the end - of - period inventory higher than expected. In March, production increased, but exports also increased significantly due to the transfer of some demand from Indonesia. Indonesia's accelerated B50 biodiesel policy was beneficial to palm oil demand. In China, the palm oil inventory continued to accumulate in February but was expected to destock from March to April [71]. 3.2.3 Soybean Oil - The USDA March report had a neutral impact. Market attention was on the Middle East situation, US soybean demand, and South American soybean production. Positive factors such as China's potential purchase of US soybeans and the expected increase in US biodiesel blending volume supported the price of US soybeans. In China, the soybean inventory was expected to decrease in the first quarter, but the large - scale arrival of South American soybeans after March would limit the further decrease of soybean oil inventory [71]. 3.2.4 Rapeseed Oil - The Middle East war increased the import cost of rapeseed and tightened the domestic supply of rapeseed oil. However, China's reduction of the comprehensive import tax on Canadian rapeseed and the arrival of previously purchased rapeseed from March to May were expected to ease the supply - demand tension [71]. 3.2.5 Weekly Summary and Strategy - In the short - term, the continuous escalation of the Middle East war supported the prices of oil and fats. Palm oil and soybean oil were relatively strong, while rapeseed oil was relatively weak. A rolling long strategy was recommended [71].