去库幅度收窄，价格延续震荡：碳酸锂周报-20260316

Report Title - The report is titled "Carbonate Lithium Weekly Report" [2] Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the industry investment rating Core Viewpoints - The supply side shows that the production of carbonate lithium last week increased by 720 tons to 23,720 tons, with a 17.6% month - on - month decrease in February production. The Ningde Jianxiawo mine is still shut down, Zimbabwe has suspended all raw ore and lithium concentrate exports, and there are still disturbances in Yichun's mining licenses. In December 2025, the import of lithium concentrate in China was 789,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.1%, and the import of carbonate lithium was about 24,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.7% and a year - on - year decrease of 14.4%. The cost of imported lithium spodumene concentrate remained flat week - on - week, and the smelting start - up rate increased [4][6]. - On the demand side, the overall production schedule in March increased month - on - month, and the industrial chain is in a situation of strong supply and demand. In February, the combined production of power and energy - storage batteries in China was 141.6 GWh, a month - on - month decrease of 15.7% and a year - on - year increase of 41.3%. The combined export was 23.9 GWh, a month - on - month decrease of 0.9% and a year - on - year increase of 13.2%. The sales volume was 113.2 GWh, a month - on - month decrease of 23.9% and a year - on - year increase of 25.7%. The new energy vehicle purchase tax policy is expected to support the rapid growth of China's new energy vehicle market sales [5]. - In terms of inventory, this week, the carbonate lithium inventory showed a destocking state, with factory inventory decreasing by 125 tons and futures inventory increasing by 73 tons [5]. - Overall, with both supply and demand increasing, it is expected that the price of carbonate lithium will continue to fluctuate. Attention should be paid to the progress of Zimbabwe's export ban and the disturbances in Yichun's mining end [6]. Summary by Directory 01. Weekly Viewpoints Supply - side Information - Last week, carbonate lithium production increased by 720 tons to 23,720 tons, and February production decreased by 17.6% month - on - month. The Ningde Jianxiawo mine is still not in production, Zimbabwe has suspended all raw ore and lithium concentrate exports, and there are still risks in Yichun's mining licenses. In the third quarter, Australian mines achieved cost control, and there is extremely limited room for further cost reduction. In December 2025, China imported 789,000 tons of lithium concentrate, a month - on - month increase of 8.1%. The top three importing countries were Australia, Zimbabwe, and Nigeria. The import of lithium concentrate from Australia decreased by 27% month - on - month, from Zimbabwe increased by 20% to 130,000 tons, and from Nigeria decreased by 13% to 80,000 tons. In December, 23,989 tons of carbonate lithium were imported, a month - on - month increase of 9%, with 14,000 tons from Chile, accounting for 56%. The CIF price of imported lithium spodumene concentrate remained flat week - on - week, and the weekly start - up rate of carbonate lithium smelting rose to about 57%. Among them, the start - up rate of lithium extraction from spodumene rose to about 69%, from lithium mica rose slightly to about 31%, and from salt lakes rose slightly to about 58% [4]. Demand - side Information - In March, the overall production schedule increased month - on - month, and the industrial chain is in a situation of strong supply and demand. In February, the combined production of power and energy - storage batteries in China was 141.6 GWh, a month - on - month decrease of 15.7% and a year - on - year increase of 41.3%. The combined export was 23.9 GWh, a month - on - month decrease of 0.9% and a year - on - year increase of 13.2%. The sales volume was 113.2 GWh, a month - on - month decrease of 23.9% and a year - on - year increase of 25.7%. The new energy vehicle purchase tax policy is expected to support the rapid growth of China's new energy vehicle market sales [5]. Inventory Information - This week, the carbonate lithium inventory showed a destocking state, with factory inventory decreasing by 125 tons and futures inventory increasing by 73 tons [5]. Strategy Suggestions - From the supply side, the Ningde Jianxiawo mine is still shut down, there are still risks in Yichun's mining licenses, February's domestic carbonate lithium production decreased by 17.6% month - on - month, December's import of lithium concentrate was 789,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.1%, and December's total import of carbonate lithium was about 24,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.7% and a year - on - year decrease of 14.4%. The downstream demand for export is strong, and the destocking trend continues. It is expected that subsequent imports of lithium salts from South America will supplement the supply. From the demand side, the industrial chain is in a situation of strong supply and demand, the expectation of the Ningde Jianxiawo mine's resumption of production is strong, and the expected import volume of lithium salts is expected to increase significantly. Zimbabwe has suspended all raw ore and lithium concentrate exports, and the risks in Yichun's mining licenses persist, with continuous supply disturbances. With profit restoration, lithium extraction from ore continues to increase production, and the cost center moves up. The expectation of the Ningde Jianxiawo mine's resumption of production rises, the shipment of lithium salts from South America increases, and the inventory continues to decline. Attention should be paid to the progress of Zimbabwe's export ban and the disturbances in Yichun's mining end. With both supply and demand increasing, it is expected that the price of carbonate lithium will continue to fluctuate [6]. 02. Key Data Tracking - The report presents multiple data charts, including the weekly and monthly production of carbonate lithium, weekly and monthly inventory, average price of carbonate lithium, average price of lithium concentrate, production cost of carbonate lithium, production of power and other batteries, production of different raw - material - based carbonate lithium, difference between domestic power battery production and loading volume, monthly production of lithium iron phosphate, monthly production of ternary materials, import volume of lithium spodumene, import volume of carbonate lithium, average price of lithium iron phosphate for power use, and market price of ternary material 8 - series NCA type [8][10][12][16][19][22][23][25][28][31][35][36]