LPG液化气周报：持续关注通航情况-20260316

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the LPG futures market was still driven by geopolitical factors, showing a volatile and upward - trending pattern. Due to the substantial blockage of the Strait of Hormuz, the passage of LPG ships has been extremely limited, with less than 10 ships passing through since the strait was blocked. The significant increase in freight rates has also led to a divergence in the price trends of CP and FEI. Currently, Iran maintains a tough stance, and news of mine - laying in the strait during the week has kept the overall energy and chemical market strong. However, it is necessary to be vigilant about the negative feedback from the increasing number of non - regular PDH overhauls in the market. In the current situation of the strait's blockage, short - selling actions are not recommended. In the future, attention should be paid to the actual navigation situation, the reduction of domestic refinery loads, and changes in PDH operating rates [4]. - Unilateral trading strategy: Volatile and upward - trending. Arbitrage strategy: The monthly spread is expected to strengthen. Option strategy: Hold off on trading [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - Comprehensive Analysis: The LPG futures market is driven by geopolitical factors, with the Strait of Hormuz blockage affecting ship passage and freight rates, leading to price divergence between CP and FEI. The overall energy and chemical market is strong, but there is a risk of negative feedback from PDH overhauls. Future attention should be paid to navigation, refinery load, and PDH operating rate changes [4]. - Trading Strategies: Unilateral trading is expected to be volatile and upward - trending; arbitrage trading shows a strengthening monthly spread; options trading should be on hold [5]. 3.2 Core Logic Analysis 3.2.1 Crude Oil - The US - Iran conflict drives the rapid rise and high volatility of crude oil prices through geopolitical risk premiums. The main transmission paths are the uncertainty of Iran's supply and exports and the risk of the Strait of Hormuz's interruption. Since the conflict, the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has implemented military control over the strait, causing a sharp decline in ship traffic. As more than 90% of the crude oil exports of Gulf countries rely on this strait, shipping interruptions will lead to an increase in the scale of forced production cuts in these countries, posing a substantial impact on global energy supply [10]. 3.2.2 Supply - The capacity utilization rate of domestic major refineries' atmospheric and vacuum distillation units is 81.35%, a 1.46% decrease from the previous week but a 2.86% increase year - on - year. The capacity utilization rate of domestic independent refineries' atmospheric and vacuum distillation units is 58.99%, a 2.28 - percentage - point decrease from the previous week. The LPG commodity volume decreased by 3.22% week - on - week. Some refineries in Shandong and East China reduced their loads, and a refinery in North China plans to conduct maintenance next week, which may lead to a decline in the domestic LPG commodity volume [13]. 3.2.3 Demand - The domestic PDH operating rate is 63.23%, a 1.7 - percentage - point decrease from the previous week. An East China PDH Phase III plant restarted, but two PDH plants in East China had short - term shutdowns, and many PDH enterprises reduced their loads due to low raw material inventories. Next week, the East China PDH Phase III plant is expected to gradually increase its load, and the domestic PDH operating rate is expected to rise slightly. The operating rate of Shandong MTBE export plants is 66.54%, a 1.59 - percentage - point increase from the previous week. The capacity utilization rate of alkylated oil sample plants is 38.48%, a 0.08 - percentage - point increase from the previous week, and the commodity volume of Chinese alkylated oil sample enterprises increased by 0.03 tons to 12.46 tons. Overall, the chemical demand is temporarily stable, and some enterprises have carried out preventive production cuts [16]. 3.2.4 Inventory - The port inventory of LPG decreased. Although the number of arriving ships increased this period, the inventory of ships arriving at the end of the week will be reflected next week, and the unloading volume this week did not change much. The chemical demand increased slightly, but due to large fluctuations in import prices caused by geopolitical conflicts, the port shipment situations varied. The LPG inventory in refineries increased slightly. The market sentiment was still dominated by news. Initially, there was a strong sentiment of chasing price increases, and refineries held back supplies to push up prices. However, as the geopolitical situation showed signs of easing, the news - based support weakened, and refineries rushed to sell but with poor trading results, leading to an increase in inventory in various regions. Except for the North China third - level stations, the storage capacity utilization rates in most regions increased significantly [20]. 3.3 Weekly Data Tracking 3.3.1 Price Data - The document provides price data for Brent, WTI, CP C3, FEI C3, LPG futures prices, etc., as well as their historical trends [24]. 3.3.2 Spread Data - It presents spread data such as the basis of LPG in South China, East China, and Shandong ether - post C4, and their seasonal trends [27]. 3.3.3 Disk Profit Data - Disk profit data includes import profit (CP, FEI), PDH propylene profit, and PDH polypropylene profit [30]. 3.3.4 Spot Profit Data - Spot profit data covers import profit (FOB, CFR), PDH propylene profit, PDH polypropylene profit, isomerization etherification gross profit, and dehydrogenation etherification gross profit [33]. 3.3.5 Supply Data - It shows the capacity utilization rates of major and independent refineries, LPG commodity volume, and crude oil processing volume, as well as their historical trends. It also lists the routine and non - routine maintenance situations of domestic refineries and the weekly maintenance data of Chinese PDH plants [37][40][43]. 3.3.6 Inventory Data - Inventory data includes the storage capacity utilization rates of third - level stations in various regions, LPG port inventory, and port storage capacity ratio, along with their historical trends [49].