格林大华期货早盘提示：三油-20260316

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For vegetable oils, due to the repeated conflicts between the US and Iran, the market anticipates a long - drawn - out and attritional war. With the continuous rise in international oil prices and positive news such as Indonesia's B50 biodiesel test and potential US bio - fuel blending regulations, the vegetable oil market should maintain a bullish mindset, and investors can buy on dips [1][2]. - For double - meal (soybean meal and rapeseed meal), the macro factor remains the main driver of the market. The market fluctuates sharply, and investors are advised to operate with caution, hold existing long positions carefully, and mainly buy on dips [2][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Vegetable Oils 3.1.1 Market Review - On March 13th, affected by the repeated US - Iran conflicts, the vegetable oil futures prices continued to rise, led by palm oil. The closing prices of the main and secondary contracts of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil all increased to varying degrees compared to the previous day, with different changes in positions. For example, the main soybean oil contract Y2605 closed at 8690 yuan/ton, up 0.67% day - on - day, and the position increased by 7155 lots [1]. 3.1.2 Important News - On March 16th, the crude oil price soared. The US attacked Iran's major oil export hub, and Iran launched retaliatory attacks on the energy infrastructure of Israel and some Arab countries. - Indonesia is accelerating the road test of B50 biodiesel, and there are rumors that the US EPA will issue new renewable fuel blending regulations. - The Malaysian MPOB report shows that the inventory at the end of February decreased by 3.94% to 2.7 million tons, production decreased by 18.55% to 1.28 million tons, and exports decreased by 22.48% to 1.13 million tons. - Indian buyers have locked in large - scale soybean oil purchases from April to July 2026. - The shipping survey agency ITS data shows that Malaysia's palm oil exports in February decreased by 21.5% compared to January. - As of the end of the 10th week of 2026, the total inventory of the three major domestic edible oils was 2.0463 million tons, a weekly increase of 22,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.12%, and a year - on - year decrease of 8.26%. The inventory of different oils changed differently. - In terms of spot prices as of March 13th, the average spot price of soybean oil in Zhangjiagang decreased by 40 yuan/ton, the average spot price of palm oil in Guangdong increased by 60 yuan/ton, and the spot price of grade - four rapeseed oil in Jiangsu increased by 70 yuan/ton. The oil - meal ratio of the main soybean oil and soybean meal contracts was 2.78 [1][2]. 3.1.3 Market Logic - Externally, due to the US - Iran conflict, international oil prices rose above $100, the US soybean oil was consolidating at a high level, and the Malaysian palm oil futures price followed the increase. The news from Indonesia and the US also boosted the BMD palm oil and CBOT soybean oil. Although the international crude oil reserve agency plans to release reserve oil, it does not change the long - term upward trend of crude oil, so the vegetable oil market should maintain a bullish mindset [2]. 3.1.4 Trading Strategy - Hold existing long positions in low - priced oils and slightly enter new long positions. Provide support and resistance levels for different contracts, such as Y2605 with a resistance level of 9300 and a support level of 8048 [2]. 3.2 Double - meal (Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal) 3.2.1 Market Review - On March 13th, due to the warming macro - sentiment and increased macro - funds, and concerns about the受阻 of rapeseed meal imports in the UAE, the double - meal continued to rise sharply. The main soybean meal contract M2605 closed at 3128 yuan/ton, up 2.42% day - on - day, with an increase in position of 2602 lots. The main rapeseed meal contract RM2605 closed at 2591 yuan/ton, up 3.97% day - on - day, with a decrease in position of 5797 lots [2]. 3.2.2 Important News - The US Department of Agriculture's March monthly supply - demand report had little adjustment to supply - demand data. The US soybean ending inventory forecast for the 2025/26 season remained at 350 million bushels, Brazil's soybean production estimate remained at 180 million tons, and Argentina's production forecast was lowered from 48.5 million tons to 48 million tons. The global soybean ending inventory for the 2025/26 season was expected to be 125.31 million tons, a decrease of 200,000 tons from February. - The US - Iran conflict may lead to a decline in soybean exports from Brazil and the US in the future, increasing the risk of rising shipping and insurance costs. - ANEC estimates that Brazil's soybean exports in March 2026 will be 16.09 million tons, a 2.3% increase from March 2025. - As of the end of the 10th week of 2026, the total domestic imported soybean inventory was 6.1062 million tons, a decrease of 591,300 tons from the previous week. The domestic soybean meal inventory was 767,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 56,600 tons or 7.96%. The domestic imported rapeseed inventory was 171,000 tons, a decrease of 30,000 tons from the previous week. The domestic imported and pressed rapeseed meal inventory was 15,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 8500 tons or 130.77%. - In terms of spot prices as of March 13th, the soybean meal spot price was 3439 yuan/ton, up 81 yuan/ton, and the rapeseed meal spot price was 2713 yuan/ton, up 66 yuan/ton. The soybean meal and rapeseed meal basis prices also increased. The US soybean April futures crushing margin was - 413 yuan/ton, and the spot crushing margin was - 144 yuan/ton. The Brazilian soybean April futures crushing margin was 77 yuan/ton, and the spot crushing margin was 345 yuan/ton. The arrival costs of soybeans and rapeseed from different origins were provided [2][3]. 3.2.3 Market Logic - Externally, international crude oil prices rose strongly, boosting global commodities. The soybean meal market was supported by the high - level operation of US soybeans and the strengthening of Brazilian discounts. There were also many market rumors, increasing the bullish sentiment of funds. The rapeseed meal market was supported by the rise of CBOT US soybeans above 1200 cents and the rumors in the soybean meal market. The technical indicators of the rapeseed meal futures were strong, but there was a risk of stagflation and correction after long - position profit - taking. In the spot market, the soybean meal price increased, and terminal feed enterprises actively replenished stocks. The rapeseed meal price also increased, but terminal procurement was cautious [2][3]. 3.2.4 Trading Strategy - Hold existing long positions carefully and mainly buy on dips. Provide support and resistance levels for different contracts, such as M2605 with a resistance level of 3278 and a support level of 2710 [3].