铝：关注中东供应问题，氧化铝，成本抬升，铸造铝合金，跟随电解铝

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints - The report focuses on the fundamentals of aluminum, alumina, and cast aluminum alloys, highlighting the importance of monitoring Middle - East supply issues for aluminum, cost increases for alumina, and the trend of cast aluminum alloys following electrolytic aluminum [1]. - The geopolitical situation between the US and Iran is tense, which may impact the oil market, and high US inflation restricts the Fed's monetary policy [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - For electrolytic aluminum, the closing price of the SHFE aluminum main contract is 24,960 yuan, down 280 yuan from the previous day; the LME aluminum 3M closing price is 3,439 dollars, down 94 dollars. The trading volume and open interest of the SHFE aluminum main contract decreased [1]. - For alumina, the closing price of the SHFE alumina main contract is 2,956 yuan, up 91 yuan from the previous day. The trading volume increased while the open interest decreased [1]. - For aluminum alloy, the closing price of the aluminum alloy main contract is 23,655 yuan, down 335 yuan from the previous day. The trading volume and open interest decreased [1]. Spot Market - For electrolytic aluminum, the domestic social inventory of aluminum ingots is 1310,000 tons, unchanged from the previous day; LME aluminum ingot inventory is 445,300 tons, down 2,000 tons. The electrolytic aluminum enterprises' profit is 8,822.36 yuan [1]. - For alumina, the average domestic alumina price is 2,698 yuan. The profit of Shanxi alumina enterprises is - 53 yuan [1]. - For aluminum alloy, the price of Baotai ADC12 is 24,700 yuan, down 100 yuan from the previous day. The total inventory of three locations is 35,327 tons, down 8 tons [1]. Geopolitical and Macroeconomic News - Trump claims the US military launched a "violent air - strike" on Iran's Kharg Island, an important oil - export hub. Retired US officers warn that the attack may lead to "out - of - control" oil prices. Iran threatens to destroy all US - related facilities in the region if attacked [2]. - US inflation is stubborn. The core PCE price index increased by 3.1% year - on - year in January, and the Fed is expected to keep interest rates unchanged in the next monetary policy meeting [2]. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of aluminum, alumina, and aluminum alloy is all 1, indicating a neutral trend [2].