中泰期货晨会纪要-20260316

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - A - share market is volatile and weak. Short - term risk defense is the main strategy for stock index futures, while the domestic equity market may be more resilient than overseas ones. For bond futures, the short - term logic is inflation, and the curve is likely to remain steep. Consider waiting for inflation expectations to ferment and then bet on future monetary easing [14][15]. - For steel and ore, short - term steel long - positions should take profits at high points, and the previous short - straddle strategy should be held. For iron ore, the short - straddle strategy should be maintained, and the 05 - 09 positive spread should take profits around 35 [16][18]. - Double - coking prices may fluctuate strongly in the short term. It is recommended to buy on dips from the perspective of valuation and risk - return ratio. In the medium term, the supply - demand pattern is expected to remain in wide - range fluctuations [19]. - For ferrosilicon and manganese silicon, short - term short - selling on rallies is recommended. Be cautious about the unexpected price increase caused by the further fermentation of energy sentiment [20]. - For soda ash and glass, the current strategy is to wait and see. Pay attention to the supply stability of leading enterprises, new - capacity production progress, and demand recovery [21]. - Copper prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term. Pay attention to inventory changes and the macro - environment. Zinc should be treated with a bearish - biased and volatile mindset, and short - positions in lead should take profits [24][26]. - Lithium carbonate prices will fluctuate widely in the short term. In the medium - and long - term, lithium - battery demand remains positive [28]. - Industrial silicon is expected to fluctuate, and continue to focus on short - straddle option opportunities. Polysilicon is expected to be weak and volatile, and it is recommended to wait and see [30]. - Cotton prices are expected to fluctuate strongly at high levels. Sugar prices are expected to fluctuate at high points during the rebound. Egg prices have limited upward space in the short term, and the 05 - 07 contracts may be weak. Apple prices are expected to be strong. Corn prices should be chased cautiously, and a 5 - 7 reverse spread can be considered. Red dates are expected to fluctuate weakly. Hog prices are likely to remain at a low level [34][36][39][41][42][43][44]. - Crude oil prices are likely to rise due to supply shortages. Fuel oil is expected to enter a high - level fluctuation. Polyolefin prices may be slightly supported in the short term, with a medium - term large - range fluctuation and long - term dependence on the end of the war. Rubber trading should be cautious, and pay attention to the spread and selling put options after full tapping. Synthetic rubber prices are driven by costs and may have high volatility in the short term. Methanol prices may be slightly strong in the short term, but may correct if the war eases. Caustic soda prices are subject to supply - demand factors and should be traded according to the market rhythm. Asphalt prices follow oil prices. PVC prices may be strong in the short term but are subject to supply changes. The polyester industry chain should be treated with a cautious and bullish attitude. LPG is expected to remain strong but relatively weaker than crude oil [46][48][49][50][51][53][55][56][58][59]. - Paper pulp prices have short - term support, and attention should be paid to inventory and price increases of finished products. Log prices are affected by the macro - environment and port inventory. Urea prices should follow the trend of chemical futures and consider short - positions [61][62]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Information - The "15th Five - Year Plan" was officially released on March 13. The sixth round of China - US economic and trade consultations will be held from March 14 to 17. The US may launch a 301 investigation against China [8]. - Apple will lower the commission rate in the Chinese App Store from 30% to 25% starting from March 15. The State Council passed the key work division plan for 2026 and studied the negative - list management mechanism for local fiscal subsidies [8][9]. - In the first two months of this year, RMB loans increased by 5.61 trillion yuan, and the increment of social financing scale was 9.6 trillion yuan. The central bank will conduct a 500 - billion - yuan 6 - month repurchase operation on March 16, with a reduction of 100 billion yuan compared to the maturity amount [9]. - The US 1 - month core PCE increased by 3.1% year - on - year. The US GDP growth rate in the fourth quarter of last year was revised down from 1.4% to 0.7%. Saudi Arabia will cut oil production by about 2 million barrels per day [10][11]. - The US attacked Iran's oil export hub, and the global energy market is facing a supply crisis. The global chemical industry is experiencing "large - scale force majeure" [11][12]. 3.2 Macro Finance 3.2.1 Stock Index Futures - The A - share market is weak, with technology stocks adjusting. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.82% to 4095.45 points. Short - term risk defense is the main strategy due to geopolitical risks [14]. 3.2.2 Bond Futures - The money market is balanced and loose. The short - term logic of the bond market is inflation, and the curve is steep. Consider waiting for inflation expectations to ferment and then bet on future monetary easing [15]. 3.3 Black Metals 3.3.1 Steel and Ore - Steel orders have improved, but high inventory suppresses prices. Iron ore supply and demand are both strong, and short - term steel long - positions should take profits at high points. The iron ore short - straddle strategy should be held [16][18]. 3.3.2 Coal and Coke - Double - coking prices may fluctuate strongly in the short term. It is recommended to buy on dips, and the medium - term supply - demand pattern is expected to remain in wide - range fluctuations [19]. 3.3.3 Ferrosilicon - The absolute price of double - silicon is still high. Short - term short - selling on rallies is recommended, and be cautious about the unexpected price increase caused by energy sentiment [20]. 3.3.4 Soda Ash and Glass - The current strategy is to wait and see. Pay attention to the supply stability of leading enterprises, new - capacity production progress, and demand recovery [21]. 3.4 Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials 3.4.1 Copper - Geopolitical tensions increase inflationary pressure, and high inventory suppresses prices. Copper prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term, and pay attention to inventory and the macro - environment [24]. 3.4.2 Zinc - Domestic zinc inventories continue to increase, and consumption is weak. Zinc prices are expected to be bearish and volatile in the short term [26]. 3.4.3 Lead - Lead inventories increase, and prices are weak. Short - positions in lead should take profits [26]. 3.4.4 Lithium Carbonate - Prices will fluctuate widely in the short term. In the medium - and long - term, lithium - battery demand remains positive [28]. 3.4.5 Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Industrial silicon is expected to fluctuate, and continue to focus on short - straddle option opportunities. Polysilicon is expected to be weak and volatile, and it is recommended to wait and see [30]. 3.5 Agricultural Products 3.5.1 Cotton - Prices are expected to fluctuate strongly at high levels. Pay attention to the "Golden March and Silver April" demand and geopolitical impacts [34]. 3.5.2 Sugar - Prices are expected to fluctuate at high points during the rebound. Global sugar supply forecasts are divided, and domestic sugar has seasonal production pressure [36]. 3.5.3 Eggs - Prices have limited upward space in the short term, and the 05 - 07 contracts may be weak. Pay attention to feed prices and chicken inventory [39]. 3.5.4 Apples - High - quality apple prices are expected to be strong. The market is supported by low inventory and pre - holiday demand [41]. 3.5.5 Corn - Prices should be chased cautiously, and a 5 - 7 reverse spread can be considered. Pay attention to new - season wheat production and policy grain supply [42]. 3.5.6 Red Dates - Prices are expected to fluctuate weakly. The market will enter the off - season, and high inventory is a pressure [43]. 3.5.7 Hogs - The supply - demand pattern is supply - strong and demand - weak. Prices are likely to remain at a low level, and short positions in near - month contracts can be considered [44]. 3.6 Energy and Chemicals 3.6.1 Crude Oil - Supply shortages may lead to price increases. The market is facing a supply risk of over 10 million barrels per day [46]. 3.6.2 Fuel Oil - It is expected to enter a high - level fluctuation. Pay attention to the resumption of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz [48]. 3.6.3 Polyolefin - Prices may be slightly supported in the short term, with a medium - term large - range fluctuation and long - term dependence on the end of the war. Pay attention to spot market sentiment [49]. 3.6.4 Rubber - Trading should be cautious. Pay attention to the spread and selling put options after full tapping. Consider the impact of conflicts on tire exports and weather conditions [50]. 3.6.5 Synthetic Rubber - Prices are driven by costs and may have high volatility in the short term. Pay attention to raw material supply and energy prices [51]. 3.6.6 Methanol - Prices may be slightly strong in the short term, but may correct if the war eases. Pay attention to spring maintenance and Iranian supply [53]. 3.6.7 Caustic Soda - Prices are subject to supply - demand factors. The long - position logic is supply reduction and export growth, while the short - position logic is weak domestic demand and high - priced futures [55]. 3.6.8 Asphalt - Prices follow oil prices. Demand is in the off - season, and high prices suppress speculative demand [55]. 3.6.9 PVC - Prices may be strong in the short term but are subject to supply changes. Pay attention to the reduction and expansion of ethylene production [56]. 3.6.10 Polyester Industry Chain - The supply - contraction expectation is the main trading logic. Pay attention to device maintenance and demand recovery [58]. 3.6.11 LPG - It is expected to remain strong but relatively weaker than crude oil. Pay attention to supply risks from the Middle East and demand changes [59]. 3.7 Others 3.7.1 Paper Pulp - Prices have short - term support. Pay attention to inventory and price increases of finished products [61]. 3.7.2 Logs - Prices are affected by the macro - environment and port inventory. Pay attention to the impact of the US - Iran conflict and port inventory changes [61]. 3.7.3 Urea - Prices should follow the trend of chemical futures and consider short - positions. Pay attention to overseas disturbances and domestic policies [62].