铝产业链周报-20260316

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core View of the Report - The supply crisis of aluminum is still intensifying. It is recommended to allocate more positions while controlling the position size. Attention should still be paid to the development of the situation. The impact of the Middle East situation on aluminum prices is two - sided. Currently, the positive factors outweigh the negative ones, but it is not certain. The downstream start - up is gradually rising, entering the peak season rhythm, and the social inventory of aluminum ingots is still waiting for an inflection point [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Weekly View - The price of domestic bauxite is temporarily stable, while the mainstream transaction price of Guinea bulk ore increased by $2.2 per dry ton week - on - week to $63 per dry ton. The operating capacity of alumina increased by 200,000 tons week - on - week to 93.7 million tons, and the national alumina inventory increased by 25,000 tons week - on - week to 5.309 million tons. The operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum increased by 10,000 tons week - on - week to 44.726 million tons. The downstream start - up rate of domestic aluminum processing leading enterprises increased by 2.4% week - on - week to 61.9% [3]. 3.2. Macroeconomic Indicators - The document presents data on the US Treasury yield curve (10 - year and 2 - year), the US dollar index, the US 10 - year Treasury yield and real yield, and the exchange rate of the US dollar against the RMB [5]. 3.3. Bauxite - The price of domestic bauxite is temporarily stable, but it is difficult to maintain in the long term due to the large difference in the real - time theoretical cost between domestic and imported ores used by alumina plants. The mainstream transaction price of Guinea bulk ore increased by $2.2 per dry ton week - on - week to $63 per dry ton. Although some mining enterprises have signed long - term shipping agreements, the increase in shipping costs and other factors have pushed up the price of imported ore from Guinea. The cost of bauxite has increased, but the supply of imported ore is increasing, and the ore price is still under pressure [8]. 3.4. Alumina - As of last Friday, the installed capacity of alumina was 114.62 million tons, remaining unchanged week - on - week, and the operating capacity was 93.9 million tons, increasing by 200,000 tons week - on - week, with an operating rate of 81.9%. The weighted price of domestic spot alumina was 2,700.4 yuan per ton, increasing by 26.8 yuan per ton week - on - week. The national alumina inventory was 5.345 million tons, increasing by 36,000 tons week - on - week. The market rumor that Guinea may restrict bauxite exports has led to a stronger alumina price, which should be viewed with caution [11]. 3.5. Important High - Frequency Data of Alumina - The document presents data on the basis, port inventory, north - south price difference, and external transportation volume of alumina [13][14][15][16]. 3.6. Electrolytic Aluminum - As of last Friday, the installed capacity of electrolytic aluminum was 45.422 million tons, remaining unchanged week - on - week, and the operating capacity was 44.726 million tons, increasing by 10,000 tons week - on - week. The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz will gradually affect the production of electrolytic aluminum in the region, and the sharp rise in European natural gas prices has raised concerns about aluminum plant production cuts in Europe. There are new investment and restart projects both at home and abroad [20]. 3.7. Important High - Frequency Data of Electrolytic Aluminum - The document presents data on the processing fee of 6063 aluminum rods, the forward curve of Shanghai aluminum, the pit - mouth price and car - board price of thermal coal, and the import profit of aluminum [22]. 3.8. Inventory - The document presents the social inventory data of aluminum rods and ingots, as well as the inventory data of Shanghai Futures Exchange aluminum futures and LME aluminum [24][25][26][27]. 3.9. Cast Aluminum Alloy - The start - up rate of leading recycled aluminum alloy enterprises increased by 2.5% week - on - week to 58.8%. However, due to policy uncertainty and tight supply of compliant raw materials in some regions, the overall start - up level has not returned to the pre - holiday level. The traditional peak season in March has been weak, and downstream procurement is mainly for rigid demand [30]. 3.10. Important High - Frequency Data of Cast Aluminum Alloy - The document presents data on the average price of profile aluminum, the forward curve of aluminum alloy futures, the seasonal trend of the price difference between ADC12 and A00, and the import profit of ADC12 aluminum alloy ingots [32][33][34][35]. 3.11. Downstream Start - up (First Part) - The start - up rate of domestic leading aluminum downstream processing enterprises increased by 2.4% week - on - week to 61.9%. The start - up rate of leading aluminum profile enterprises increased by 7.3% week - on - week to 51.8%, and the production of profile enterprises has fully returned to the pre - holiday normal rhythm. The start - up rate of leading aluminum plate and strip enterprises increased by 1% week - on - week to 70%, but the order volume of automobile plates has decreased [38][42]. 3.12. Downstream Start - up (Second Part) - The start - up rate of leading domestic cable enterprises increased by 2% week - on - week to 65%, and the production rhythm has further accelerated. The start - up rate of leading primary aluminum alloy enterprises increased by 1.8% week - on - week to 53%, but the spot trade is light due to the high aluminum price [46].