原油周报：地缘因素扰动，原油溢价回升-20260316

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Due to the continuous escalation of the US - Iran conflict, the geopolitical risk in the Middle East remains high. Although IEA member countries plan to release 400 million barrels of crude oil, it is difficult to offset the supply shortage caused by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, leading to a decline in the expected supply of Middle Eastern crude oil. This week, domestic and international crude oil futures prices have risen significantly. The domestic crude oil futures 2605 contract has shown a strong upward trend, with a cumulative increase of 17.38% to 753.6 yuan per barrel this week. It is expected that the domestic crude oil futures prices will continue to maintain a strong posture [5][12][13]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Market Review - Spot price increase and basis change: As of the week ending March 13, 2026, the spot price of crude oil produced in the Shengli Oilfield area in China was 84 US dollars per barrel, equivalent to 579.4 yuan per barrel, with a week - on - week increase of 106.6 yuan per barrel. The main contract 2604 of domestic crude oil futures closed at 664.8 yuan per barrel, with a week - on - week increase of 176.4 yuan per barrel. The basis widened to - 85.4 yuan per barrel [8]. - Geopolitical influence on prices: The continuous escalation of the US - Iran conflict has led to high geopolitical risks in the Middle East. The planned release of 400 million barrels of crude oil by IEA member countries cannot offset the supply shortage caused by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. As a result, the expected supply of Middle Eastern crude oil has decreased, and domestic and international crude oil futures prices have risen significantly. The domestic crude oil futures 2605 contract has increased by 17.38% to 753.6 yuan per barrel this week [5][12][13]. 3.2 Crude Oil Supply and Demand Maintains Excess Expectations, and the Pace of Production Increase Slows Down - OPEC+ production increase and supply situation: In 2023, eight OPEC+ countries including Saudi Arabia and Russia announced voluntary production cuts. Since the second quarter of 2025, they have shifted to a production - increasing policy. The production increase has been implemented in a phased manner. In 2025, the production of OPEC member countries increased significantly. In December 2025, the crude oil production of OPEC member countries was 28.564 million barrels per day, with a month - on - month increase of 105,000 barrels per day and a year - on - year increase of 1.874 million barrels per day. It is expected that in 2026, the global crude oil supply market will show a pattern of "OPEC+ actively expanding production to seize market share, and non - OPEC+ steadily increasing production as the main force" [23][24][25]. - Non - OPEC production capacity: Non - OPEC+ countries' capacity expansion has intensified the supply surplus. The production of South American oil - producing countries such as Brazil and Guyana has been rising, and the US shale oil production has remained at a high level. As of the week ending March 6, 2026, the number of active oil drilling platforms in the US was 411, with a week - on - week increase of 4 and a year - on - year decrease of 93. The average daily crude oil production in the US was 13.678 million barrels, with a week - on - week decrease of 18,000 barrels per day and a year - on - year increase of 103,000 barrels per day [37]. - Seasonal demand in the Northern Hemisphere: The US, as the world's largest crude oil consumer, has obvious seasonal changes in crude oil demand. After late February, the crude oil consumption in the Northern Hemisphere will enter the off - season, the demand will weaken, and the inventory will change from de - stocking to inventory accumulation. EIA and IEA predict an increase in global oil inventory, and the demand growth forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been revised down [39][40]. - US inventory and refinery situation: As of the week ending March 6, 2026, the US commercial crude oil inventory (excluding strategic petroleum reserves) reached 443 million barrels, with a week - on - week increase of 3.824 million barrels and a year - on - year increase of 7.78 million barrels. The refinery operating rate was maintained at 90.8%, with a week - on - week increase of 1.6 percentage points [42]. - China's crude oil situation in 2025: In 2025, China's crude oil imports reached a record high, with an annual import volume of 577.73 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.4%. The production was stable, with an annual output of 216.05 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.5%. The processing volume increased moderately, with an annual processing volume of 737.59 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.1%. In 2026, China's crude oil consumption will enter a new stage of "stable total volume and optimized structure", with both support and restraint factors [46][49][50]. 3.3 Global Geopolitical Conflicts Break Out in Multiple Points and Crude Oil Premium Increases - Middle East geopolitical situation: During the Spring Festival in 2026, the Middle East was in a high - risk balance of "talking and fighting". The US - Iran confrontation, the Red Sea shipping crisis, and the escalation of the Palestine - Israel conflict have pushed up international oil prices. The US and Iran are in a "security dilemma", and the Red Sea shipping crisis has increased shipping costs. The intervention of major powers has made the situation more complex. If the situation further escalates, oil prices may break through 100 US dollars per barrel [56][57][58]. 3.4 Net Long Positions in the International Crude Oil Market Decrease Week - on - Week - As of March 3, 2026, the average non - commercial net long positions in WTI crude oil were 172,150 contracts, with a week - on - week decrease of 562 contracts, but a significant increase of 33,041 contracts compared with the February average, an increase of 23.75%. The average net long positions of Brent crude oil futures funds were 246,514 contracts, with a week - on - week decrease of 54,198 contracts, but a significant increase of 85,120 contracts compared with the February average, an increase of 52.74% [60]. 3.5 Conclusion - Due to the further escalation of the US - Iran conflict, the geopolitical risk in the Middle East continues to heat up. Energy supplies from the Middle East are blocked, and Middle Eastern oil - producing countries may face production cuts. Although OPEC+ plans to resume production increase in the second quarter and IEA member countries plan to release strategic reserves, the increase in supply is less than the decrease caused by supply disruptions. It is expected that domestic crude oil futures prices will continue to operate in a strong posture [68].