格林大华期货早盘提示：白糖-20260316

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Views of the Report - The sugar market is affected by factors such as production expectations in India and Thailand, and geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East. The international sugar market is in a bear - market cycle with a relatively loose short - term supply - demand structure, but there is potential for the trading logic of sugar as a bio - energy to be amplified. The domestic sugar market has a neutral - bearish supply - demand situation but is supported by cost and policy expectations [1]. - The jujube market has limited trading information. The supply pressure is the main factor suppressing prices. The current futures price is oscillating strongly, and short - term attention should be paid to the rebound amplitude for short - selling operations [4]. - The natural rubber market has a mix of long and short factors. Overseas production areas are entering the shutdown period, and domestic production areas have good conditions for new - season tapping. The demand from tire enterprises is recovering, and the inventory situation is complex. The synthetic rubber market is mainly affected by the supply of butadiene, and the price is affected by the Middle East conflict [5]. Summary by Variety Sugar - Market Performance: On Friday, the SR605 contract closed at 5447 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 0.57%, and the SR609 contract closed at 5483 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 0.66%. The ICE raw sugar main contract was at 14.41 cents/pound with a daily decrease of 0.14% [1]. - Important Information: As of March 11, 2026, Thailand's cumulative sugarcane crushing volume increased by 0.48% year - on - year, sugar production increased by 2.98% year - on - year. Brokerage firm StoneX lowered the forecast of the global sugar supply surplus to 870,000 tons [1]. - Market Logic: The international sugar market is affected by production expectations and geopolitical conflicts. The domestic sugar market has a neutral - bearish supply - demand situation but is supported by cost and policy expectations [1]. Jujube - Market Performance: On Friday, the CJ605 contract closed at 9095 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 0.17%, and the CJ609 contract closed at 9465 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 0.26% [4]. - Important Information: Last week, the physical inventory of 36 sample points decreased by 0.99% week - on - week and increased by 7.39% year - on - year. The arrival of vehicles at the Guangdong Ruyifang market decreased by 3 vehicles [4]. - Market Logic: The jujube trees in Xinjiang are in the dormant stage, and there is a possibility of early budding. The supply pressure is the main factor suppressing prices, and the futures price is oscillating strongly [4]. - Trading Strategy: Short - sell at high prices; enterprises can consider selling hedging operations [4]. Rubber Natural Rubber - Market Performance: As of March 13, 2026, the RU main contract closed at 16765 yuan/ton with a daily decrease of 1.82%, and the NR main contract closed at 13320 yuan/ton with a daily decrease of 2.31% [5]. - Important Information: On Friday, the price of Thai raw material glue was 71 baht/kg, and the cup - rubber price was 58 baht/kg. As of March 8, 2026, the total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao increased slightly, and the social inventory decreased slightly [5]. - Market Logic: Overseas production areas are entering the shutdown period, domestic production areas have good conditions for new - season tapping, tire enterprise demand is recovering, and the inventory situation is complex [5]. Synthetic Rubber - Market Performance: The BR main contract's center of gravity moved up last week, with obvious wide - range oscillations [5]. - Important Information: On Friday, the prices of butadiene rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber in the market increased [5]. - Market Logic: The BR futures price is mainly affected by the supply of butadiene, which is related to the operation of naphtha cracking to ethylene plants and the Middle East conflict [5]. - Trading Strategy: Adopt a short - long thinking for RU and NR in the near term; hold BR long positions cautiously [6].