LPG：地缘不确定性较高，丙烯，成本端地缘扰动，供应存减量预期

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating provided in the report. 2. Core View The report focuses on the fundamentals of LPG and propylene, including price movements, trading volumes, open interest, and industry operating rates. It also provides market information such as CP paper prices and domestic device maintenance plans, suggesting that the cost side of propylene is affected by geopolitical factors and there is an expectation of supply reduction. 3. Summary by Directory Fundamental Tracking - Futures Market - LPG (PG): On March 16, 2026, the 2604 contract had a closing price of 5,734 with a daily increase of 1.60%, and a night - session closing price of 5,751 with a night - session increase of 0.37%. Trading volumes and open interest showed various changes. - Propylene (PL): The 2604 contract had a closing price of 8,169 with a daily increase of 3.85%, and a night - session closing price of 8,263 with a night - session increase of 1.15%. Trading volumes and open interest also changed [1]. - Spot Market - LPG (PG): Prices in different regions such as Shandong, East China, and South China showed different degrees of change. For example, Shandong civil LPG was priced at 5,550, down 184 from the previous day, and the main contract basis was 227, down 320 from the previous day. - Propylene (PL): East China was priced at 8,350, unchanged from the previous day, and the main contract basis was 8, down 288 from the previous day [1]. - Industry Operating Rates - PDH operating rate was 63.23%, down 1.7 from the previous week; alkylation operating rate was 37.2%, unchanged; MTBE operating rate was 68.94%, up 1.22 from the previous week [1]. - LPG Shipment Volume - Global LPG shipments on March 15, 2026, were 12.3 tons, down 4.5 from the previous day; Asian shipments were 4.9 tons, down 2.3 from the previous day. Middle - East global shipments were 0.8 tons, unchanged from the previous day; Asian shipments were 0.8 tons, unchanged from the previous day [1]. Trend Intensity - LPG trend intensity: 1; propylene trend intensity: 1. The range of trend intensity is an integer in the [-2, 2] interval, with -2 being the most bearish and 2 being the most bullish [5]. Market Information - CP Paper Prices: On March 13, 2026 (Singapore closing time), the April CP paper price for propane was 578 US dollars/ton, down 5 US dollars/ton from the previous trading day; butane was 572 US dollars/ton, down 6 US dollars/ton. The May CP paper price for propane was 586 US dollars/ton, down 2 US dollars/ton from the previous trading day [6]. - Domestic PDH Device Maintenance Plans: Multiple companies have PDH device maintenance plans, including Henan Huasong New Material Technology Co., Ltd., Jiangsu Yanchang Zhongran Chemical Co., Ltd., etc. Some maintenance start times are from 2023 to 2026, and some end times are still to be determined [7]. - Domestic LPG Factory Device Maintenance Plans: Many factories such as Rizhao (Zhonghai), Shangneng Petrochemical, and Dongchen Petrochemical have device maintenance plans, with different start and end times and loss amounts [7].