华联期货工业硅、多晶硅周报：双硅或延续偏弱震荡-20260316

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For industrial silicon, the current market supply - demand situation has limited positive factors, and price fluctuations are mainly driven by the macro - environment with cost as the bottom support. Short - term supply surplus remains the main market contradiction, and the price is expected to fluctuate within a narrow range. It is recommended to consider short - selling opportunities for si2605 with a reference pressure level of 9100 - 9200 yuan/ton or buy put options [8]. - For polysilicon, the market still faces dual pressures of high inventory and weak demand, and the industry reshuffle continues. In the short term, the market will continue the weak bottom - seeking trend, and the price still has a small downward space. It is recommended to consider short - selling opportunities for PS2605 with a reference price of 46000 - 47000 yuan/ton or buy put options [11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - ly Views and Hot News Industrial Silicon - Market Review: From March 6 to March 13, 2026, the spot price of industrial silicon was basically stable. As of March 13, the benchmark spot price was 8849 yuan/ton, up 1.25% from March 6. In the futures market, the main contract of industrial silicon slightly rose, with the latest transaction price of 8675 yuan/ton and a weekly decline of 0.17%. The open interest of the main - month contract was about 238,300 lots [8]. - Supply: The number of open furnaces increased this week. In Xinjiang, the output was steadily released after the power - on of manufacturers last week. In Yunnan, individual manufacturers rotated open furnaces, and the start - up increased this week. A company in Leshan, Sichuan was baking the furnace for self - use [8]. - Demand: The demand of some downstream manufacturers increased slightly this week. The operation of polysilicon was stable, and individual manufacturers signed silicon powder at low prices. The organic silicon monomer plants had large inventory pressure and made rigid purchases of industrial silicon. This week, some aluminum rod enterprises resumed production in Gansu, Inner Mongolia, and Sichuan, increasing the consumption of industrial silicon [8]. - Cost, Profit, and Inventory: The production cost of industrial silicon increased slightly this week. Due to the continuous fermentation of international conflicts, the price of petroleum coke increased, and the average production cost of the industry increased slightly. The prices of silica and silicon coal remained unchanged. The cost will remain stable next week. The profit of industrial silicon increased slightly, and the market transaction price was higher than before, with the profit of holders slightly repaired. The overall inventory remained at a high level, and the inventory pressure of manufacturers was relieved [8]. Polysilicon - Market Review: From March 6 to March 13, 2026, the spot price of polysilicon was generally stable. As of March 13, the benchmark spot price was 45,000 yuan/ton, almost the same as that on March 6. In the futures market, the main contract of polysilicon slightly rose, with the latest transaction price of 42,040 yuan/ton and a weekly increase of 2.04%. The open interest of the main - month contract was about 34,400 lots [11]. - Supply: New production capacity will contribute a small part of the output this month. A factory increased its operation rate to reduce costs. Currently, the overall operation rate of the polysilicon industry is maintained at 30%. According to the current production plan of enterprises, the domestic polysilicon output in March is expected to recover to 85,000 - 90,000 tons, and the supply side may show a mild recovery [11]. - Demand: The demand side of polysilicon continued to be weak this week, and the recovery pace was slower than expected. The downstream purchasing willingness was low, only maintaining rigid restocking, and did not effectively support the market. The demand transmission in the industrial chain was blocked. Although there were signs of resumption of production in the downstream silicon wafer segment, the overall operation rate recovery was weak. The enterprise raw material inventory was in a reasonable range, and the procurement was mainly for short - term rigid demand, with a low willingness for long - term locked orders and limited purchasing power for polysilicon [11]. - Inventory: The overall inventory was still at a historical high, and the de - stocking pressure was not fundamentally relieved [11]. 3.2 Industry Pattern - The industrial silicon and polysilicon industry chain involves multiple links. Industrial silicon is produced from raw materials such as petroleum coke, charcoal, and silicon ore, and is then processed into organic silicon, polysilicon, and aluminum alloy. These products are further used in various fields such as electronics, construction, and photovoltaic [19]. 3.3 Spot and Futures Market - The report presents various price charts of industrial silicon, including basis, spot prices of different grades and ports, and prices of continuous and active contracts in the futures market [23][32][45]. 3.4 Inventory - The report shows charts of industrial silicon inventory, including industry inventory, factory inventory, market inventory, and futures inventory [56][60]. 3.5 Cost and Profit - The report includes charts of industrial silicon comprehensive profit, comprehensive cost of all models, main - producing area electricity prices, prices of silicon ore, petroleum coke, electrodes, and silicon coal [67][73][83]. 3.6 Supply - The report shows the weekly and monthly production of industrial silicon, as well as the operation rate and monthly production capacity. There are also new production capacity projects in multiple regions, with a total planned new capacity of 1.98 million tons [99][104][107]. 3.7 Demand - The report presents the consumption overview of industrial silicon, including consumption breakdown and structure. It also shows the production and price of polysilicon, the price and production of organic silicon, the production of aluminum rods, and the production and operation rate of different types of aluminum alloys, as well as the production and price of solar cells [110][115][126]. 3.8 Import and Export - The report shows the import and export volume charts of industrial silicon and polysilicon [171][175].