——2026年2月金融数据点评：信贷表现分化，居民存款多增

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints of the Report - In February 2026, the year-on-year growth rate of the stock of social financing was +8.2%, with the growth rate remaining basically flat month-on-month. The year-on-year growth rates of M1 and M2 were 5.9% and 9.0% respectively, with the growth rate of M1 increasing by 1.0 percentage point month-on-month and that of M2 remaining basically flat. The new credit in February was about 0.90 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.11 trillion yuan. The credit structure was optimized overall, with corporate medium- and long-term loans performing well, while household credit remained weak and bill financing impulse weakened. Affected by the Spring Festival holiday, the net issuance scale of government bonds in February was low, with the increment of government bonds about 1.40 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of about 0.29 trillion yuan. In terms of deposits, household deposits increased year-on-year, indicating that the current risk preference of households has not been systematically improved and the savings willingness is still strong. The pressure of "deposit outflow" from banks may be weaker than market concerns [3][7]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Credit - The credit increment decreased year-on-year, but the credit structure was optimized overall. In February 2026, the new credit was about 0.90 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.11 trillion yuan. Corporate medium- and long-term loans increased year-on-year, with the corporate loan increment in February about 1.49 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.45 trillion yuan. Among them, short-term loans and medium- and long-term loans increased by 0.27 trillion yuan and 0.35 trillion yuan respectively year-on-year. The increase in medium- and long-term loans reflects the good quality of corporate credit. The increment of bill financing in February was -350 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of about 0.2 trillion yuan, indicating that banks' "impulse" demand has weakened and they pay more attention to the optimization of the credit income structure. However, household credit remained weak, with household loans decreasing by about 0.65 trillion yuan in February, a year-on-year decrease of 0.26 trillion yuan. Among them, short-term loans and medium- and long-term loans decreased by 0.20 trillion yuan and 0.07 trillion yuan respectively year-on-year. Looking forward, the "inflection point" of the year-on-year increase in credit increment this year may mainly depend on the driving effect of consumption subsidy policies on household credit and the specific implementation schedule of the 800 billion yuan new policy-based financial instruments, which may not significantly drive the annual credit increment, but will have a certain impact on the credit growth rhythm [10]. Social Financing - Affected by the Spring Festival holiday in February, the increment of government bonds decreased year-on-year. In February 2026, the increment of social financing was about 2.38 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of about 0.15 trillion yuan. In terms of sub-items other than credit, the new off-balance-sheet financing in February decreased less year-on-year by 0.19 trillion yuan, and the new direct financing increased year-on-year by about 1.97 billion yuan. In addition, affected by the Spring Festival holiday, the net issuance scale of government bonds in February was low, with the increment of government bonds about 1.40 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of about 0.29 trillion yuan [10]. Money - The year-on-year growth rate of M1 rebounded, and the growth rate gap between M2 and M1 continued to narrow. In February 2026, the year-on-year growth rate of M1 continued to rebound. On the one hand, the entire Spring Festival holiday was in February this year, and the holiday was relatively long, which expanded the consumption scenarios and willingness of households during the holiday. On the other hand, the RMB was still in an appreciation channel in February as a whole, and the increase in enterprises' willingness to settle foreign exchange promoted the increase in RMB deposits. Analyzing the specific deposit data in February: 1) Household deposits increased by 3.11 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.50 trillion yuan; enterprise deposits decreased by 2.65 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.76 trillion yuan. Part of this was affected by the payment of salaries by enterprises before the Spring Festival, which led to the transfer of enterprise deposits to household deposits. At the same time, the relatively fast return of household deposits after the Spring Festival also reflects that the current risk preference of households has not been systematically improved and the savings willingness is still strong. The pressure of "deposit outflow" from banks may be weaker than market concerns. 2) Fiscal deposits decreased by 0.35 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.61 trillion yuan. The fiscal expenditure intensity in February was significantly higher, which also provided certain support for the liquidity of the bond market. 3) Non-bank deposits increased by 1.39 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.44 trillion yuan less. The adjustment of the equity market in February this year had a certain impact on the growth of non-bank deposits [10]. Outlook for Financial Data and the Bond Market - Overall, in the financial data of February, corporate credit showed a certain degree of prosperity, but household credit remained weak. The issuance of government bonds at the beginning of the year has not increased yet, and at the same time, deposit growth is good. Overall, it is relatively friendly to the bond market. Recently, the market is concerned that the self-discipline requirements for interbank deposits may be further tightened, and the bank's liability cost may decline accordingly, which is also beneficial to the bond market. However, looking forward from mid-March, it is still necessary to note that, first, the rhythm of credit issuance this year may be significantly affected by policies, that is, pay attention to when consumption subsidies and new policy-based financial instruments will be implemented to drive credit; second, if the issuance of government bonds accelerates in the second quarter, it may bring certain supply pressure to the bond market; third, how the recent corporate foreign exchange settlement behavior responds to the phased pressure on the RMB exchange rate, which will affect the subsequent performance of the M1 growth rate [10].